Posted on 08/28/2016 8:25:29 AM PDT by pb929
An average of the 4 national daily tracking polls (LA Times/UNC, UPI/CVoter, Reuters/Ipsos and PPD show that Trump has been gaining since about August 14th and the race is now tied.
I've put all of the polling data into a couple of graphs, one showing the state of the race based on the daily tracking polls, and other other showing an overall trend based on all polls. The linked page will be updated whenever new polls are released.
This page shows the real data and filters out the sleight of hand used by the media and the RCP averages.
Almost as if it didn't happen.
Thanks!!! I was unable to upload your page with the graphs. Could you post them here?
Thanks. Of course, two-way polling is silly. I don’t know what Johnson and Stein will get-—as high as 13% combined or as little as about 7-8% combined, but the majority (not all) will come from Cankles.
Polls are just part of the crooked, rigged system aimed at manipulating public opinion.
Obviously it’s a problem for the Media-Democrat-Academia Complex if they come out and say Trump is way ahead.
Lying to say Hillary is way ahead flies in the face of what people know to be true.
So, they started with Hillary having a small edge, Trump slipping backward. Now they’re starting to use the “T word” - (tie). I suspect this will be the mantra from here forward, “it’s too close to call” - then let the election rigging machinery ensure that Hillary gets the win.
Polls are tools just like TV ads. No one regulates or certifies polls so they can be total BS and have the same impact as if they were scientifically sound. Pollsters are paid to do them by someone who is NOT a neutral observer, and who pays for things that are contrary to your interests? Spin the polls to show a close race, then cheat to make sure your candidate wins by a slim margin - I think that’s the gameplan.
Let me be the first to say “Trump has really stepped in it! It’s all over for him now!”
So in other words you change the actual poll results to create a new one that says what you would like it to say, rather than what it really said.
I guess to me the real question is who is winning the 8-10 states that will be deciders
in this election. National polls are good to get general opinions but this election
is decided on a state by state basis. Polling in CA or TX as examples are givens. JMO
We have reached max Trump due to people not focusing because of the summer holidays. Come return to school people will begin to focus on the issues they care about, and we should see a strong up-tick for Hillary. Polls show that 92% of Americans are aware she did illegal things and just don't care. /s/
I’m truly convinced that tied is equal to Trump plus the margin of error.
I realize that polls are +/- 3-5 which leads me to believe that this is Trump’s lead.
Brexit polling showed 48-46 stay in the roundabout average for pre-election estimates. It ended up being 52-48 leave. That’s an underperform on the exit call and spot on for the stay call.
I honestly think Trump v Clinton is going to be the same type of invisible polling results. People will not tell pollsters their true mindset, at least 3-5% of them.
In fact I believe that admitting Trump support this election is going to be even more muted in the polling data than Brexit leave support.
I have no basis to substantiate this other than my own gut instinct, how Brexit polling got it wrong and the media stuffing polling and opinion polls for her thighness.
If Trump is ever up +3 in polls you’re looking at a 6-8% popular vote advantage.
Well you can bet if the LAT and Reuters say we have a tied race, then Trump is probably a bit ahead and the we have not even past Labor Day yet.
Focus on the polls about two weeks out from the vote.
Well you can bet if the LAT and Reuters say we have a tied race, then Trump is probably a bit ahead and the we have not even past Labor Day yet.
Focus on the polls about two weeks out from the vote.
Good work. That’s my read on this as well.
The internet polls that are weekly have it narrowing to a 3-5 point race as well.
I think the Q poll showing +10/+7 is an outlier. Missing from the picture is the live phone polls from the networks.
Good work. The trend is definitely towards Trump. Even the crooked rigged Reuters poll shows that on a straight trend line Trump overtakes Hillary for good by mid September.
No, he's aggregating the polls like 538 would. Only thing mathematically he may want to do is account for survey size to reweigh, if possible, because some polls are on a 5-day track and others are on a 7-day track.
It may all depend on how many of the 90 MILLION who normally don’t vote show up for Trump...
/s
Yup.
Undecideds break for the incumbent. They went for Obama in 2012.
Hillary - as things stand now, will likely win but with fewer votes than Obama got.
As the polls become more favorable for Trump, we’ll hear less and less about them.
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