If the US hadn’t been in the Philippines, we might not have confronted Japan in the Pacific; and hence, our entry into WWII might have been delayed, if it happened at all.
Ergo, we might be living in a world with a Reich and an Imperial East-Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
In regards to the Japanese, Teddy Roosevelt encouraged the Japanese to conquer Korea. He thought the world would be a better place if the Japs were in charge of Asia.
The other way of looking at it is the US would not have presented an implied threat to Japan, which would not have had occasion for a naval expansion.
A US-Japanese alliance was a reasonable idea in its time, had the US stayed within implied spheres of influence.
Russia was going to defeat Germany regardless.
Yeah if we weren’t in the Philippines the Japanese might have attacked Hawaii first.
True, it’s one of the great “what if” options of the 20th century.
However, even without involvement in the Philipines we probably would have developed a powerful Pacific naval presence and Japan still would have considered it a strategic threat which had to be removed for their expansion plans to succeed.