Yeah if we weren’t in the Philippines the Japanese might have attacked Hawaii first.
Heh. They did, by about 8 hours.
I think the point is that without the Philipines bases and commitment, the US would have been a lot less involved in the western Pacific strategically. Japan and the US might not have been in such strategic tension if the US didn’t consider our foreign policy interests to extend so strongly to the far side of the Pacific. IF Japan could have done it southward expansion without inevitable war with the US, then they would not have attacked Pearl Harbor, is one line of speculation.