Electoral Vote | |||||||||
# Polls | Trump | Clinton | other | Margin | : | Trump | Clinton | ||
: | 309 | 229 | |||||||
AL | 2 | 62.9% | 37.1% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 9 | ||
AK | 2 | 62.2% | 37.8% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 3 | ||
AZ | 8 | 52.9% | 43.6% | 3.5% | Trump | : | 11 | ||
AR | 2 | 55.9% | 41.1% | 3.0% | Trump | : | 6 | ||
CA | 12 | 38.6% | 57.6% | 3.8% | Clinton | : | 55 | ||
CO | 8 | 43.6% | 45.1% | 11.2% | Clinton | : | 9 | ||
CT | 3 | 48.5% | 49.0% | 2.5% | Clinton | : | 7 | ||
DE | 2 | 45.7% | 48.6% | 5.7% | Clinton | : | 3 | ||
DC | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Clinton | : | 3 | ||
FL | 21 | 47.7% | 46.8% | 5.5% | Trump | : | 29 | ||
GA | 9 | 49.6% | 45.1% | 5.3% | Trump | : | 16 | ||
HI | 1 | 43.7% | 56.3% | 0.0% | Clinton | : | 4 | ||
ID | 4 | 56.8% | 34.8% | 8.5% | Trump | : | 4 | ||
IL | 6 | 41.7% | 53.0% | 5.3% | Clinton | : | 20 | ||
IN | 4 | 57.1% | 42.9% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 11 | ||
IA | 13 | 48.3% | 45.0% | 6.7% | Trump | : | 6 | ||
KS | 2 | 56.3% | 36.0% | 7.6% | Trump | : | 6 | ||
KY | 3 | 58.3% | 41.7% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 8 | ||
LA | 2 | 60.5% | 38.4% | 1.0% | Trump | : | 8 | ||
ME | 3 | 48.0% | 45.6% | 6.4% | Trump | : | 4 | ||
MD | 5 | 39.5% | 60.3% | 0.1% | Clinton | : | 10 | ||
MA | 3 | 40.5% | 59.5% | 0.0% | Clinton | : | 11 | ||
MI | 9 | 47.0% | 46.1% | 7.0% | Trump | : | 16 | ||
MN | 3 | 48.6% | 51.4% | 0.0% | Clinton | : | 10 | ||
MS | 2 | 59.9% | 40.1% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 6 | ||
MO | 8 | 51.7% | 42.2% | 6.1% | Trump | : | 10 | ||
MT | 3 | 57.7% | 42.3% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 3 | ||
NE | 1 | 59.3% | 40.7% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 5 | ||
NV | 8 | 47.4% | 43.2% | 9.5% | Trump | : | 6 | ||
NH | 17 | 49.5% | 46.1% | 4.4% | Trump | : | 4 | ||
NJ | 9 | 43.2% | 50.2% | 6.6% | Clinton | : | 14 | ||
NM | 3 | 47.6% | 49.0% | 3.4% | Clinton | : | 5 | ||
NY | 14 | 40.7% | 55.9% | 3.4% | Clinton | : | 29 | ||
NC | 15 | 49.0% | 46.8% | 4.2% | Trump | : | 15 | ||
ND | 1 | 57.3% | 42.7% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 3 | ||
OH | 20 | 48.1% | 45.1% | 6.8% | Trump | : | 18 | ||
OK | 4 | 60.3% | 34.1% | 5.7% | Trump | : | 7 | ||
OR | 5 | 47.7% | 49.6% | 2.6% | Clinton | : | 7 | ||
PA | 17 | 48.5% | 45.5% | 6.0% | Trump | : | 20 | ||
RI | 1 | 47.3% | 52.7% | 0.0% | Clinton | : | 4 | ||
SC | 3 | 56.3% | 43.7% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 9 | ||
SD | 1 | 61.0% | 39.0% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 3 | ||
TN | 2 | 60.2% | 39.8% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 11 | ||
TX | 2 | 55.9% | 44.1% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 38 | ||
UT | 7 | 53.2% | 40.8% | 6.0% | Trump | : | 6 | ||
VT | 3 | 34.8% | 47.9% | 17.2% | Clinton | : | 3 | ||
VA | 11 | 46.5% | 46.7% | 6.8% | Clinton | : | 13 | ||
WA | 3 | 46.7% | 53.3% | 0.0% | Clinton | : | 12 | ||
WV | 3 | 67.1% | 32.9% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 5 | ||
WI | 12 | 46.4% | 48.9% | 4.7% | Clinton | : | 10 | ||
WY | 1 | 69.7% | 30.3% | 0.0% | Trump | : | 3 |
Not to be snarky, but your “polling” CV is...?
From your mouth to Gods ears
It is reasonable to suppose undecideds will break to the challenger, but this kind of depends on the challenger’s performance in the debates. Trump has a ton of experience in debates. He has handled himself well in spite of making some mistakes. This was shown in the scientific polls following the debates, in addition to registering in the unscientific or straw polls on various internet sites.
Bigger picture: Support for the Green Party an the Libertarian Party will dwindle, with most of the Greenies going to the Democrat and most of the Libertarians going to Trump. Considering that Gary Johnson has twice the support that Jill Stein has, this is another potential gain for Trump. There are more votes registering for these minor party candidates right now than undecideds. It’s hard to say the polls are anything more than a snap shot at this time, laying out the challenges and opportunities each candidate has. As of right now, taking the polls at face value, Clinton is ahead, but the prospects are good for Trump.
Thanks Big Ed. Great work as always. I was working up a 303-235 Trump victory yesterday. The convention bounces will now factor into the state polls in a few weeks. Also, this Khan business will run its course in a week or so. Still feeling very bullish on Trump.
In a ‘normal’ election.
I think events, not in anybody’s control, will take over the carefully crafted song-and-dance of a ‘normal’ election we’ve had before.
What the outcome will be is anybody’s guess.
South Carolina Ping
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Here's the first few lines of your table done with the <pre> tag:
Electoral Vote # Polls Trump Clinton other Margin : Trump Clinton : 309 229 AL 2 62.9% 37.1% 0.0% Trump : 9 AK 2 62.2% 37.8% 0.0% Trump : 3 AZ 8 52.9% 43.6% 3.5% Trump : 11 AR 2 55.9% 41.1% 3.0% Trump : 6 CA 12 38.6% 57.6% 3.8% Clinton: 55 CO 8 43.6% 45.1% 11.2% Clinton: 9Notice the pre tag makes lining up numbers in a column easier.