Posted on 07/23/2016 11:48:27 AM PDT by Jim W N
Art Laffer is a famous economist, one of the brains behind President Ronald Reagan's supply-side tax cuts in 1981. But he was also a political adviser to Reagan and other presidential candidates. Based on history rather than polls or demographics, he insists Donald Trump will win the presidential race—and win easily.
History is an argument not often heard in presidential elections except in one case: the likelihood that after one party holds the White House for eight years, that party probably won't win four more years. The one exception in the past half-century was the election of George H.W. Bush in 1988 after eight years of the Reagan presidency.
But Laffer doesn't rely heavily on that case. Instead, he cites six historical parallels, comparisons, or developments that he says point inescapably to a Trump victory over Hillary Clinton in November.
The first is what Laffer calls "1979-1980: How the Reagan Revolution Began." Reagan "was disrespected and abused by significant segment of the Republican establishment," Laffer notes. "The torrent of anti-Reagan epithets never stopped."
Laffer's conclusion: "In other words, just like today in re Donald Trump, the party's cognoscenti were forecasting a huge Reagan defeat that would carry with it large numbers of House members and senators." But Reagan won in a landslide. "That Reagan saga of 1980 seems a lot like the Trump story today."
The second is the economy. "For Hillary Clinton, the Obama record on the economy will be her biggest negative come November," according to Laffer. "And the very fact that she actually sought out and embraces this legacy speaks volumes about her judgment."
It's a "challenge for the incumbent party to maintain the White House…even when a president's term ends on a high note," Laffer says. But when it ends with a weak economy, it's almost impossible. And the economy in the eighth year of the Obama presidency is indeed weak.
"This Obama economy really isn't a recovery, let alone a strong recovery, as one would expect should have happened following the devastating collapse of the Great Recession," Laffer says. "Why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record? It's beyond me."
Number three: the mood of the country. There's "a downside to being a Democratic insider and establishment figure today," Laffer says. "When the electorate is unhappy with the direction the country is heading," Hillary Clinton "will be blamed right along with the president."
Dude, what in the hand-wringing world are you talking about?
Trump wins Florida (my home state) easily, and has a great chance in all the other states you mentioned. Don't know where you could be getting your doomsaying from...
Vote Trump!
Yeah, I’m in FL and I see literally NO Hillary stickers. Some Trumps, but I dont expect to see a ton of those anyways due to the vandalism you’re exposing yourself to by putting a Trump sticker on your car.
Very optimistic that Trump takes back FL, NC, OH, good shot in Iowa and has a shot in PA. I even saw that he’s running even in WA and CT...Its an uphill climb for any GOP Prez candidate from now on though because of the demos & fraud. Any talk of a landslide win for us is foolish.
Must be fraud. Yeah, no other possibilities.
The 2008 and 2012 defeats couldn't possibly have had anything to do with the garbage candidate McCain's hatred of conservatism or the mediocre Romney's dull cluelessness.
Cheer up, Trump can easily overwhelm a few rotten boroughs. Crooked Hillary isn't going to be able to cheat her way out of this one.
Romney actually got 33 more electoral votes than McCain, so he wasn't that awful, but he wasn't great. A lot of conservatives are still in denial about how great a campaigner Obama is. Relaxed, in control, charismatic and able to project affability and confidence over a long grinding campaign.
Romney was professional, but not charismatic. His history didn't help, being the creator of Romneycare and having won as a liberal in a pure blue state. It's also been a bad decade for anyone associated with finance. The 2008 meltdown and bank bailout will be tainting Wall Street candidates for decades to come. Romney ran against the tide of history and history won.
Expect the Democrats to try and tar Trump with the Wall Street brush.
Trump isn't running as a libertarian or Tea Partier, he's running as a conservative nationalist. The GOP base doesn't want significant cuts in Social Security or Medicare, and most want increases in defense.
This was also true during the Reagan years. Remember how the GOP lost the Senate in 1986? By threatening to reform Social Security.
There are even better political reasons to leave entitlement spending alone for the time being. Hint: look at the age of the GOP base.
“..Hillary’s voters will all vote twice whenever possible and illegal aliens will each cast as many votes as he/she can....”
While that may be true... this is Trump we’re talking about, not Squish Romney and crazy McCain. He’s neither used to, nor will settle for, losing - ESPECIALLY if he thinks they’ve cheated him.
Do you really think Trump will let that slide? He’ll fight like a fiend to show the fraud, and demand recount after recount until he wins it.
There’s a new Sheriff in town, and he ain’t HAPPY... and that’s a good thing, finally.
This forum wanted a fighter. We got one.
Trump is first candidate since Reagan who can rewrite the map.
He can win little or win big by flipping just a few states that are well within reach.
Hold all Romney states, add Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Pennsylvania (20).
273 Trump, 265 Clinton
Hold all Romney states, add New Hampshire (4), Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Pennsylvania (20).
277 Trump, 261 Clinton
Hold all Romney states, add Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Pennsylvania (20).
293 Trump, 245 Clinton
Just a reminder: Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado were the closest states that Romney lost. There was more than a 5% difference in the next closest states.
I don’t care about libertarian, Tea Partier, conservative nationalist, GOP or even ultimately Trump. I care about America and a rebirth of freedom. That means blowing up the status quo (the opposite from the apparent meaning of “conservative”).
If the end game of this Trump Movement isn’t the 80%+ reduction of the mostly unconstitutional $4 trillion central government, the reinstatement of the Constitution as the Supreme Law of the Land against the feds, and the reinstatement of constitutional state sovereignty, then this Trump Movement will merely be a speed bump on the Road to Ruin.
++!!
That’s great and all, but he’s not flipping Ohio, or Pennsylvania or Florida....and he sure as hell isn’t flipping New Hampshire or Michigan...it’s just not going to happen. The rot is too deep, the cities too populous...
What?
Yeah, Laffer is good until it comes to the issue of illegal immmigration.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.