[BigEdLB]

								Electoral Vote
	# Polls	Trump	Clinton	other		Margin	:	Trump	Clinton
							:	305	233
AL	1	62.0%	38.0%	0.0%	24.0%	Trump	:	9
AK	2	62.6%	37.4%	0.0%	25.3%	Trump	:	3
AZ	6	53.8%	44.4%	1.8%	9.3%	Trump	:	11
AR	2	56.6%	41.6%	1.8%	15.0%	Trump	:	6
CA	12	39.3%	57.4%	3.4%	18.1%	Clinton	:		55
CO	8	42.3%	46.3%	11.4%	4.0%	Clinton	:		9
CT	3	49.1%	49.4%	1.6%	0.3%	Clinton	:		7
DE	1	49.7%	50.3%	0.0%	0.7%	Clinton	:		3
DC	0	-	-	-		Clinton	:		3
FL	21	47.9%	45.9%	6.3%	2.0%	Trump	:	29
GA	6	52.8%	46.3%	1.0%	6.5%	Trump	:	16
HI	1	43.7%	56.3%	0.0%	12.7%	Clinton	:		4
ID	3	59.7%	40.3%	0.0%	19.3%	Trump	:	4
IL	5	44.8%	53.4%	1.7%	8.6%	Clinton	:		20
IN	4	57.0%	43.0%	0.0%	14.1%	Trump	:	11
IA	14	47.8%	44.0%	8.1%	3.8%	Trump	:	6
KS	1	58.7%	41.3%	0.0%	17.3%	Trump	:	6
KY	3	58.9%	41.1%	0.0%	17.7%	Trump	:	8
LA	2	61.1%	38.4%	0.5%	22.7%	Trump	:	8
ME	3	49.9%	45.5%	4.6%	4.4%	Trump	:	4
MD	5	41.1%	58.8%	0.1%	17.7%	Clinton	:		10
MA	3	42.4%	57.6%	0.0%	15.2%	Clinton	:		11
MI	8	46.0%	46.9%	7.1%	0.9%	Clinton	:		16
MN	3	48.4%	51.6%	0.0%	3.1%	Clinton	:		10
MS	2	60.9%	39.1%	0.0%	21.7%	Trump	:	6
MO	6	55.1%	41.8%	3.1%	13.3%	Trump	:	10
MT	3	57.7%	42.3%	0.0%	15.4%	Trump	:	3
NE	1	59.3%	40.7%	0.0%	18.7%	Trump	:	5
NV	6	47.9%	48.0%	4.1%	0.0%	Clinton	:		6
NH	15	49.9%	47.8%	2.3%	2.1%	Trump	:	4
NJ	9	44.4%	50.5%	5.1%	6.1%	Clinton	:		14
NM	3	49.7%	48.5%	1.8%	1.1%	Trump	:	5
NY	13	41.4%	57.3%	1.3%	16.0%	Clinton	:		29
NC	15	49.2%	46.6%	4.2%	2.5%	Trump	:	15
ND	1	57.3%	42.7%	0.0%	14.7%	Trump	:	3
OH	19	47.0%	44.6%	8.4%	2.4%	Trump	:	18
OK	2	60.0%	39.3%	0.7%	20.7%	Trump	:	7
OR	4	48.6%	51.4%	0.0%	2.8%	Clinton	:		7
PA	18	46.6%	45.4%	8.0%	1.2%	Trump	:	20
RI	1	47.3%	52.7%	0.0%	5.3%	Clinton	:		4
SC	3	56.9%	43.1%	0.0%	13.7%	Trump	:	9
SD	1	61.0%	39.0%	0.0%	22.0%	Trump	:	3
TN	2	60.6%	39.4%	0.0%	21.2%	Trump	:	11
TX	2	55.9%	44.1%	0.0%	11.9%	Trump	:	38
UT	7	54.7%	40.5%	4.8%	14.3%	Trump	:	6
VT	2	43.9%	53.3%	2.7%	9.4%	Clinton	:		3
VA	10	47.0%	46.1%	6.9%	0.9%	Trump	:	13
WA	3	46.4%	53.6%	0.0%	7.2%	Clinton	:		12
WV	3	66.9%	33.1%	0.0%	33.7%	Trump	:	5
WI	13	46.5%	48.0%	5.5%	1.5%	Clinton	:		10
WY	1	69.7%	30.3%	0.0%	39.3%	Trump	:	3

[aposiopetic]

Thanks.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Landslide!

[edie1960]

BEAUTIFUL!!
THANKS SO MUCH FOR SHARING!!

[LS]

Just got into the internals of the WaPo/ABC poll:

“registered” voters . . . but then they asked for the “youngest” adult in the house,
so it’s deeply skewed to NON-voters and people less likely to vote Republican.

Folks, this ABC poll is about a 2 point Trump lead.

[mountn man]

I know it's an impossibility...

But I'd love Trump to take California and/or NY.

It'd be like pi$$ing on Hillary's forehead.

[ri4dc]

Nice work. I approve this message.
MonsterVote, invisible but potent.
Joe Sixpack

[usafa92]

Thanks Big Ed. Good work as always. Not sure if you saw the following YouGov polls today

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/07/17/clinton-trump-neck-and-neck-key-battlegrounds/

Ohio makes no sense,but it’s 41-40 Clinton across the 11 battlegrounds. I still think these polls can’t find all the Trump voters. He’s always at 40%. It’s statiscally impossible to be at 40% in virtually every poll.

[Timpanagos1]

A very well structured hypothetical aggregate of all states’ polls and very good news that Trump will win all the Swing States.

And winning Swing States is a problem for Clinton, as she cannot win them all.

[Be Careful]

From your keyboard to God’s ears......

[LS]

Great job. I notice you give Cankles MI and CO, certainly MI is likely to go Cankles and this cycle, CO is more so than in the past, but these two are not givens. Also, I notice that you give Trump ME and NH. That’s questionable, although he should win at least one ME vote.

[LS]

Um, you may be low: See this-—Trump/Cankles tied in CT.

http://www.newsmax.com/JohnGizzi/trump-hillary-clinton-poll/2016/07/17/id/739056/

[plain talk]

I assumed Hillary as de-facto incumbent, so I apportioned undecideds as 2-1 for Trump.

Yeah right.

[mrsmith]

Very sensible, and nice work!
Best predictive poll I’ve seen, period.
(Some are obviously ‘too close to call’)

[Gator113]

Thanks.

[trebb]

Your calculations to God’s ears....