I think that Trump has an excellent chance by getting out the vote. He should be able to match, get close, or even exceed Bush 37%R 37%D in 04 election according to exit polling. Obama in 2012 D38% and Romney 32%. What was it - about 4 million R voters as I recall didn’t show up to support Romney? Romney had a good chance to win, but he was a poor campaigner for many reasons, and his turnout also reflected it. The bottom line is turnout and getting them to vote as a block.