I think that Trump has an excellent chance by getting out the vote. He should be able to match, get close, or even exceed Bush 37%R 37%D in 04 election according to exit polling. Obama in 2012 D38% and Romney 32%. What was it - about 4 million R voters as I recall didn’t show up to support Romney? Romney had a good chance to win, but he was a poor campaigner for many reasons, and his turnout also reflected it. The bottom line is turnout and getting them to vote as a block.
Romneys computers went down on election day (Soros hack?) and he had no backup Get out the vote stalled.. Trump will have multiple backups.
Well, he sure turned ‘em out in the primaries—set the record for a republican as I recall. Something to keep in mind.
By the way, if a polling outfit (not talking about this one, just speaking generally) and you wanted a certain outcome, you wouldn’t even have to “rig” it. All you’d have to do is poll 5 or 6 times simultaneously and pick the one you like best. At this point, I wouldn’t put anything past the anti-Trump folks.
In recent elections, changing minds has had less effect than getting your voters to show up. An effective ‘ground game’ matters a lot. Trump has been very hit and miss on that (with some astoundingly large misses at times). One hopes he gets that together.