China Wants U.S. Clues On Fed Rate Hike Timing

Investors Business Daily ^ | 5/25/2016 | BLOOMBERG NEWS

[expat_panama]

Chinese officials plan to ask their American counterparts in annual talks next month about the chance of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in June, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Chinese delegation will try to deduce whether a June or a July rate rise is more likely, as the nation’s policy makers prepare for the potential impact on financial markets and the yuan, the people said, asking not to be named as the discussions were private. In China’s view, if the Fed does lift borrowing costs, a July move would be preferable, the people said. A People’s Bank of China press officer later denied that China plans to ask about the timing ...

...China on a new currency watch list last month to monitor for unfair trade...

...Chinese side will argue that the U.S. should tread cautiously...

...U.S. embassy in Beijing didn’t have an immediate comment on whether the Fed will participate in the Beijing talks.

China’s indications of concern about coming Fed policy moves follow a period of relative stability...

...as expectations for an earlier Fed rate increase diminished.

The Fed narrative is now changing, with officials signaling that their June meeting is in play. New York Fed President William Dudley said earlier this month that the policy-setting committee is moving closer to raising rates at one of its next two meetings and that the fact this message was getting through to financial markets was welcome news.

“The Fed’s inaction has given China a short break,” Kevin Lai, chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets, wrote in a note this week. “Yet, the fundamental picture hasn’t changed. Global investors seem increasingly concerned about the level of indebtedness in China and skeptical about its ability to handle a range of problems.”

[expat_panama]

It's like Sam Goldwyn said, "nobody knows nothing".

[2001convSVT]

“China Wants U.S. Clues On Fed Rate Hike Timing”

Ha, ha, ha, that would be insider trading, and I don’t think the Fed knows what they are going to do any way.

[expat_panama]

Good morning!  Winding down the week and the stock rally continues "Broad gains, mixed volume" and the distribution day count lowers to 7/NASDAQ and 6/S&P500.    Gold/siver fade from recent highs and are now at $1,227.75/$16.48 and futures traders today see stock indexes +0.61% and metals -0.21%.

Reports:

8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Continuing Claims
8:30 AM Durable Orders
8:30 AM Durable Orders, ex-transportation
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories

fwiw:

Killing Off the Ugly Regulatory Parasite - Richard Rahn, Washington Times
How the Oil & Credit Markets Became Linked - Simon Constable,U.S. News
Don't Let Lost Decade Harm Your Retirement - Eric Nelson, Seeking Alpha
What Gundlach Says S&P Must Do to Prove Itself - Mark DeCambre, MW
Reason Why Investors Are Ignoring the Fed - Caroline Baum, MarketWatch
'Gig Economy' Is Great for U.S. Economy - Ike Brannon, Weekly Standard

[expat_panama]

don’t think the Fed knows what they are going to do

That was exactly what I was thinking.  Seems the Fed is creating far too much uncertainty than what can be dumped on the U.S. markets, so they've now begun exporting....

[Gadsden1st]

I can just see “Fed Speak” translated into Chinese. There would be smoke pouring out of their ears. If they ran it through a computer translating program and they tried to act on the results, the Chinese Yuan would crash.

[CincyRichieRich]

If rates are hiked, economy is further wrecked; if they are not, same thing. I can see raising them right before 0bama, “leaves”. Then, media blames Trump and all heck breaks loose. Of course, he could do it sooner and cancel election due to chaos and need for martial law. Hmm.

Is he that dastardly (translated: evil chaotic hell-raiser demon from hell). Yeah, he is.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

“the Fed is creating far too much uncertainty “

Ain’t that the truth.

[expat_panama]

too much uncertainty “       Ain’t that the truth.

The problem isn't simply we don't know what's going to happen.   We never do.    imho the current situation is muddled by the fact that we got a some in power that say one thing's going to happen and we got others w/ just as much power saying we're going the other way and Yellen's failed in her responsibility to make sure we're all on the same page and able to coordinate a common trend.

Trump is right in wanting her replaced, and he seems the only one who'd not be afraid to sack the first woman fed chair.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

First thing she should do is get all the FED governors together and knock some heads and tell them to STFU.

[expat_panama]

can see raising them right before 0bama, “leaves”. Then, media blames Trump...   ... evil chaotic hell-raiser demon from hell). Yeah, he is.

Somehow my take ends up seeing controversy about O's evil qualities as a distraction    My problem's w/ the goofy left-wing faction's willingness to resort to scorched earth warfare when they lose in Nov. and I expect it to happen w/ or w/o a rate hike.  Back in '01 there were the last minute pardons and ridiculous EPA regulations.  I'm expecting that plus an alien invasion and worse.

[expat_panama]

Like fed chairs have done for a hundred years ---but she won't because she can't. That's how guys act; she's a girl.

[Buckeye McFrog]

It’s abundantly clear they will do NOTHING until after the election.

[expat_panama]

they will do NOTHING until after the election.

That's hard to follow.  You're saying that the fed will not raise rates before Nov no matter what?  

My take is that it's for sure that over the next month or two if inflation jumped five % or more then we'd most definitely get rate hikes.  On top of that there're lots of other extreme possibilities that could maybe cause a big reaction on the fed's part.  Our question really is what's possible for the econ's next move, and for each possibility which way will the fed go?

That's when I go looking for another Tylenol...