Posted on 05/22/2016 12:25:46 AM PDT by GonzoII
Selection for president, if the 2016 presidential election was between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton
May 20, 2016
1,201 Respondents
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 41.8%
Donald Trump (Republican) 37.5%
Other/Wouldn't vote/refused 20.6%
(Excerpt) Read more at polling.reuters.com ...
May 20, 2016
916 Respondents
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 35.8%
Donald Trump (Republican) 32.3%
Other/Wouldn't vote/refused 31.9%
Blacks
May 20, 2016
168 Respondents
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 62.0%
Other/Wouldn't vote/refused 27.0%
Donald Trump (Republican) 11.0%
what was the male vote percentages?
Good question. From talking to people out and about I am convinced Hillary has a worse problem with male voters than Trump does with women.
That 11% Black vote is about the bedrock percent that has voted Republican for President since 1968. Turning the 27% don’t know/refused group is paramount. No Republican has won over 25% of the Black vote since Nixon in 1960 against JFK. The Dems could not lose 25% of the Black vote today and win nationally (as the White vote is far more GOP than it was in 1960), and if Trump can get to 30%, it’s all over for the Butcheress of Benghazi.
Trump has a 10% or so disadvantage with women at present, but Hillary has over 20% disadvantage with men, which I expect to grow. It’s not out of the realm of impossibility Trump could get a 65-35% margin with men overall (and if you remove non-White males, perhaps even higher than that).
May 20, 2016
745 Respondents
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 37.7%
Donald Trump (Republican) 35.7%
Other/Wouldn't vote/refused 26.6%
Are you saying non-White males vote like women?
What if you filter for registered or likely voters. This Reuters poll is usually tracking all adults.
How do you that?
Can’t trust Reuters until they bring in Green Helmet Guy. Everything they do is staged.
Five months to go - I would guess that the Dems will be frantic by the beginning of September....
Fox recently reported that there are more women voters than men for what that’s worth.
May 20, 2016
168 Respondents
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 62.0%
Other/Wouldn't vote/refused 27.0%
Donald Trump (Republican) 11.0%
________________________________________
Bush 43 received 11% of the Black vote in 2004.
It's only May now. Unless 100% of the 27% "Other/Wouldn't vote/refused" break for Clinton, she may be completely "schlonged".
(I expect Trump to pick a VP who will help him with minorities. I also expect that he won't tell us about it until the moment that it maximizes the interest and excitement about his choice. Maybe as long as 8 weeks from now.)
I don’t know one man that doesn’t hate her.
No, it’s high. W got 7% in 2004 I think and NO Republican has gotten above 10 in 21st century.
I guess Reuters needed to get a poll up going the other way. Got to keep the Real Clear Politics average from getting too high...
You are right-—I stand corrected on 2000 and 2004, where Bush got 10 and 11.8, but (obviously against a black candidate) McCain got 4 and Minion got 7-—so Trump already equaling Bush’s best with blacks.
If Trump could get 11% black vote in the general, it’s over.
Males tend to be more Republican than women, regardless (no surprise). Non-White males would tend to vote to the left of White women but to the right of non-White women. Then you have married women vs. unmarried, with the former voting more Republican than the latter.
That is the million dollar question. Republican appeal and outreach to Black voters ranges from terrible to non-existent. Trump has to make an appeal that “It’s OK” to break away from the Dems to vote for him via unconventional means. He should try to aim for getting 20-25% of their vote, which would be a remarkable achievement post-1960s. Another method is to make it so that they’re conflicted and questioning enough about Hillary that they don’t show up to vote. Hammering her in ads and on the street with a simple question, “What HAS she done for Black people ?” is one important tack to follow.
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