57 of 2,472 delegates
(57 bound)
Posted on 05/02/2016 9:02:35 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
57 of 2,472 delegates
(57 bound)
2) The polls traditionally close first in the nation on Election Day in Indiana. Tuesday is no different. Most of the state, including Indianapolis closing at 6 p.m. Eastern. However, the state will not projected until after 7 pm as the parts of the North-Western part of the state south of Chicago (Gary) and the Southern counties of the state (Evansville) are in the Central Time Zone and close at 6 pm Central Time.
3) Edison Research is conducting exit polls throughout Indiana, so expect a call quickly after 7 pm Eastern if a candidate has a substantial lead.
4) Trump was in front in 7 of the 8 Indiana polls released in April. The only outlier was an IPFW/Downs Center poll conducted over a two-week time frame from April 13 to April 27, where Cruz sported a 16-point edge.
5) To the victor will go the spoils. As a reliably Republican state, Indiana is in the unique position of being a large-ish state that has more statewide plus RNC plus bonus delegates (30) than they do Congressional District delegates (27 delegates (9 districts times 3 delegates)).
Indiana is Winner Take All statewide and by Congressional District. This means whomever wins the state is guaranteed a base of at least 30 delegates and realistically should take at least 45 (more likely 48-54) of the 57 delegates.
6) If Trump wins the Hoosier state, the electoral path of the #NeverTrump movement gets even narrower as the Donald would likely need just 70-80 or so delegates of the 172 available in California (if you include the Pennsylvania unpledged slate of 40 or so pro-Trump delegates) or 110-120 or so to notch the nomination with solely pledged delegates.
This projection assumes that Trump wins New Jersey’s 51 delegate slate, takes 30 of the 36 delegates in West Virginia on May 10 and gets a conservative 40 delegates from the proportional states of Washington, Oregon and New Mexico.
Sourcing
For primary dates and times:
Official GOP websites for states.
For delegate allocation:
The Green Papers
Frontloading Blogspot
For polling data:
Real Clear Politics
Any questions... ":^)
Trump is going to win WVA, NJ and CA.
And he is guaranteed to get a proportional share of delegates in WA, OR and NM whether he wins or loses those states.
The only bright spots for Cruz are NB, MT and SD.
Not going to get it done.
It will be interesting to see what happens in Nebraska next week if Trump overperforms in Indiana. It’s not outside of the realm of possibility for Trump to actually exceed expectations and win there should he take Indiana by a decisive margin.
Just got an invite to a primary watch party with local publicans.
Beginning with NY, they have made these into party get-togethers.
Expecting 80 - 100 people at a Wings bar / restaurant.
And they wager on the outcome stats and the rallies.
There’s a drinking game tied with every time Cruz says, “Donald”
If Trump, as expected, sweeps Indiana tomorrow night, I can't help but wonder if we're prematurely writing off Nebraska and Montana - particularly the latter. Sure, Cruz has done well in those regions - but the vast majority of them have been caucuses whereas these are going to be primaries. And they won't be unaffected by all the landslide Trump wins. Let's just hold that assumption in abeyance for the moment!
If this doesn't give him nightmares, nothing will.
What is "NB"? Nebraska? That's NE.
Betting sites currently have Trump with a 68% chance of winning Nebraska, vs. 32% for Cruz.
NE is a designation for New England so NB is used for Nebraska to avoid confusion.
You may right, Trump could pull off a win in NB if people begin concluding a vote for Cruz is a throw-away vote.
If Trump wins big in IN tomorrow, it may well compel Cruz and Kasich to exit the race.
This would be the best outcome for all concerned - to unify the party swiftly to face Hillary in the general election campaign.
“There’s a drinking game tied with every time Cruz says, Donald.”
Sure hope you can hold your liquor. ]:^)
Thanks for the post/information; thread. BTTT.
Driven by USA Fracked and Pumped crude oil.
Oh my gosh, I assumed 8:00 pm and would possibly have missed it at 7:00 pm! Instead I will now hurry home to watch! Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!
No, no it means New Brunswick. Ted has narrow lead there and hopes to become prime minister of Canada.
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