From the pure math perspective banning all drivers would be stupid, and impossible. I see us eventually phasing out self driving, I don’t see us banning it. For one thing it would just #$%^ people off and the legislature that proposed it would find himself out of a job. For another there’s the whole legacy vehicle problem, we’re simply not going to push 100,000 cars OFF the road.
When OnStar first started people made similar predictions, it and things like it would be universal, not having it would be outlawed, they’d use it to turn off your vehicle for various social mechanical reasons... 20 years later none of the above has happened.
Oops. Missed 3 zeroes. That was supposed to be 100 MILLION cars not thousand.
I agree that it will be gradual. It will start with the elderly, they are already placing restrictions there such as yearly license renewal. On the other side, the younger generation don’t value driving as much. Many are waiting for their license or living in metropolitan areas and not getting it at all.