I agree that it will be gradual. It will start with the elderly, they are already placing restrictions there such as yearly license renewal. On the other side, the younger generation don’t value driving as much. Many are waiting for their license or living in metropolitan areas and not getting it at all.
It’s interesting how the next generation has no interest in driving. I think it’s because they grew up with the internet. When we were teenagers driving drastically increased the scope of our world. Current teenagers have had access to the entire world through the internet all their lives, driving actually decreases their world, because you can’t play on the net when you’re driving.