Can You Get Trump To 1,237?

538 ^ | 4/20/2016 | Aaron Bycoffe

[Eccl 10:2]

Donald Trump has more delegates than any other Republican candidate, but he’ll need a majority — 1,237 — to clinch the GOP nomination for president. Using the controls below, decide how many delegates you think he’ll win in each remaining contest, and see how your projections compare with those of the experts we surveyed.

[Eccl 10:2]

If you use the "follow the experts" button, you get to 1191, then there are 132 uncommitted delegates. If Trump gets a proportional share of those, he is in.

For a first ballot win, it will be close.

[LNV]

The “experts” have underestimated Trump since the day he announced.

[Tennessee Nana]

Trying to figure out the rules for the delegate allocation in each individual state makes my poor head swim...

[ObozoMustGo2012]

[Trying to figure out the rules for the delegate allocation in each individual state makes my poor head swim...]

That’s what Paul Manafort is for...

#InPaulWeTrust

[odawg]

“Trying to figure out the rules for the delegate allocation in each individual state makes my poor head swim...”

That is the goal; gives wiggle room for double dealing and double crossing.

[dartuser]

Trying to figure out the rules for the delegate allocation in each individual state makes my poor head swim...

But if you take the time to do that and make even conservative guesses ... Trump gets to 1300+.

[sten]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hkgLa844MzTgeqcmrkeSrLnq7vJJZl2S7lMz8Qf5xq8/edit#gid=0

he’s got the lock

[DoughtyOne]

Click graphic for source. Also provided: Green papers verification (alternate source): LINK

This is the delegate count after the New York Primary.

Notice the burgundy text on the far right, on the Cruz line?

Tead has been numerically eliminated from getting 1237 delegates prior to the convention.

Trump has the only viable chance, and after the New England states he will have over 50% of the delegates to that point.

That is an amazing feat considering he was up against 16 other men in the race.

Trump is likely to get the 1237 delegates pre convention.

After next Tuesday he will need less percentage in the future delegate capture, than he will have gotten to that point.

Quite an accomplishment...

[for-q-clinton]

Trump will need to work the uncommitted delegates if he wants to win. He will have to do like Cruz and do exactly what he has been whining about.

[goldstategop]

I played with the math and if Trump falls short of an outright delegate majority, he can get the unbound delegates to back him.

The closer he gets, the easier that would be.

[scooby321]

Trump has hired the best Preconvention and convention starting with Paul Manafort .

This will be over sooner rather than later

As he predicted last night was the start of hell for 6 weeks for Rafael Nixon Cruz.

[Cboldt]

-- Trump will need to work the uncommitted delegates if he wants to win. He will have to do like Cruz and do exactly what he has been whining about. --

Huh? Wooing uncommitted delegates for a first ballot vote is exactly the same as wooing committed delegates to abandon their binding on the second and later ballots?

[SoothingDave]

They’re only bound for the first ballot. They wouldn’t be “abandoning their binding.”

Duh.

[DoughtyOne]

I agree with your take on it GoldenStateGOP.

[DoughtyOne]

Yes, Felito is toast.

[moehoward]

Now you gone and done it. He’ll be trying to retie that knot the rest of the dday.

[lodi90]

They’re only bound for the first ballot. They wouldn’t be “abandoning their binding.”

Duh.

---

Unbound PA delegates are not jumping on the sinking SS Cruz after he finishes 3rd in their state.

Duh.

[Cboldt]

-- They're only bound for the first ballot. They wouldn't be "abandoning their binding." --

Whatever. You got the idea, all you object to is the choice of phrase.

As for the duration of binding, some states bind delegates for more than the first ballot. Not relevant to the initial point I was making, just a detail.

[LS]

Yeah, but the experts were low on NY. I think most of the experts are about right in many of these states, but all it takes is one or two for Trump to do better than they thought and you don’t even need the 132.

[austinaero]

“Huh? Wooing uncommitted delegates for a first ballot vote is exactly the same as wooing committed delegates to abandon their binding on the second and later ballots?”

Not even close. Cruz is reportedly planting fake “Trump” delegates in some states that are there for the express purpose of voting for Cruz. They get voted in as Trump supporters but plan on turning at the convention.

That’s devious. This fakery is celebrated by those who support Cruz.