Posted on 04/16/2016 1:34:33 PM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
In ten days, April 26th, if calculations are correct, it will be mathematically impossible for Cruz to win.
thegatewaypundit.com reports: As we noted on the 2nd, “Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.”
Now it looks like Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he may also have fallen to third place in the polls by the end of April, too.
Based on current conservative estimates, come April 26th, Cruz will need 657 delegates to win the election but only 585 will be left leaving him mathematically out of the race.
Trump will only need 279 delegates or less than 50% of the delegates remaining to win the nomination.
And according to our conservative estimates – Trump should gain 1237 delegates by June 7th making him the Republican nominee.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstatewatcher.com ...
PREACH IT, Teacher!
Brilliant analysis. Cruz outperforms the polls probably because he has a precision turnout effort focused on his core base of traditional Christian conservatives and maybe young conservatives as well. He’s doing the same turnout trick with that group that Obama did with blacks, hispanics, etc. And that effort will prove just as fruitful in the general election as it has in the primary.
You would think the pollsters would have realized this by now and start spotting Cruz at least 5 points no matter how their results come out.
You do realize that Obama just hired buses that took blacks from polling place to polling place to vote over and over again, right? That's standard practice in the Rats party.
Is Cruz doing the same?
Trump is a choice for President that the American public will find absolutely unacceptable. His temperament is COMPLETELY WRONG for what people consider presidential. There is no way they will ever take him seriously as a candidate and vote him into office.
Cruz is a very acceptable, traditional choice for President, on the conservative side of things. Many in the public may think he’s more conservative than they are, but they will find him a completely reasonable, qualified person for the job. That is a hurdle any candidate must get over before they have a chance of being elected. Cruz can do it. Trump cannot.
You tell me, I’m not in his campaign.
States that never vote Republican in the general are not “major states” in a Republican primary.
Your opinion JJ and you are entitled to it.
I see it completely opposite as do many many people I see and speak with daily.
True, and that reality won’t be forgotten IF he wins the nomination. He’ll never win the election, just not possible.
But America has certainly never elected a President like Trump. He would experience a very untraditional general election loss.
One of the Ted Cruz Facebook groups took a poll and Carly Fiorina was the far-and-away winner on who his V.P. pick should be. Fiorina would soften up Cruz’s edges just enough and help him attack Hillary without being spun as an old boys network sexist Republican white guy who hates women. I like the chances for Cruz/Fiorina over Trump and any imaginable V.P. pick for him.
There is a list out on Twitter of who the PA delegates are supporting. Looks like most say they will go with their district winner. About 20 each are for Cruz and Trump. They could only find 1 or 2 who said they might at least be thinking of backing Kasich.
2 of the Cruz delegates were winning delegates in 2012, none of the Trumpers.
We’re starting at different premises and coming to different conclusions. I think that the democrats are likely to win in 2016 (and 2020 for that matter) no matter who their nominee is and no matter who our nominee is.
by that standard, we have little to lose. A traditional GOP candidate, particularly an obnoxious still like Cruz, is almost a certain loser. Roll the dice - an unconventional candidate waging an unconventional campaign may likely lose, but it is still our best chance (among poor chances).
A 1% chance beats a 0% chance. Anyone who looks at Cruz as the kind of guy that can win in 2016 is just not paying attention. You’d think the country would be hungry for a strong conservative after the Obama era. They’re not. Obama would handily win reelection if he could run.
We’re in a period of liberal ascent and dominance that will likely last half a century. Nothing to lose - try to score one conservative goal in a sea of losses. Cruz ain’t the guy.
>We’re starting at different premises and coming to different conclusions. I think that the democrats are likely to win in 2016 (and 2020 for that matter) no matter who their nominee is and no matter who our nominee is.
Please, Trump would wipe the floor with Hillery while Cruz can’t even get more than 25% of the GOP to vote for him and has zero appeal to anyone outside the GOP. The more the public sees of Ted the less they like him.
Uh, humblegunner...
Big difference..
I’m not trying to convince anyone of anything about any candidate.
Doing that while being obnoxious is just ate-up with the dumbass.
Okayyyyyyy...
Ted isn't the one here who keeps hinting of a third-party run if he is 'denied' the nomination.
This is nothing more than campaign propaganda.
>This ‘blog’ is an adjunct of the Trump campaign. Every single piece on it is either a pro-Trump or anti-Cruz story.
>This is nothing more than campaign propaganda.
The same could be said about every Pro-Cruz site out there.
You’re right.
Do you have an example of one of those sites that has been used repeatedly as the linked story for Free Republic threads?
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