Posted on 04/16/2016 1:34:33 PM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
In ten days, April 26th, if calculations are correct, it will be mathematically impossible for Cruz to win.
thegatewaypundit.com reports: As we noted on the 2nd, “Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.”
Now it looks like Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he may also have fallen to third place in the polls by the end of April, too.
Based on current conservative estimates, come April 26th, Cruz will need 657 delegates to win the election but only 585 will be left leaving him mathematically out of the race.
Trump will only need 279 delegates or less than 50% of the delegates remaining to win the nomination.
And according to our conservative estimates – Trump should gain 1237 delegates by June 7th making him the Republican nominee.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstatewatcher.com ...
It has been nice keeping the loudest Trumpeters quiet for a few weeks, though.
I'll be happy if Trump comes away with 200 over the next two weeks. That will put him at about 950 and in good position to get to the 1237 by Jun 7.
It's 744-559 now. There is a high probability that Trump won't have the 1237 by July either. There is NO reason for Cruz to drop out. He is one of two viable candidates with a large part of the vote (and winning the GOP states to Trump's Liberal states, outside of the Old South), heading into a likely Brokered Convention.
If nobody gets 1237, the Convention should hand it to one of those two candidates. The GOP will likely try to force in a third alternative, but they would be making a huge mistake. Cruz can still make a claim to the nomination because he has won many states, is within striking distance of the leader, and a large part of the lead was built back when there were 17 candidates. In a 2-man race, with Trump NEVER topping 50%, Cruz could have won.
Cruz has topped SIXTY percent in more than one state, and Trump has yet to beat 49.3%. Cruz did it in very Conservative states, but Trump's best states are/will be MASS, NY, and CT... the most Liberal area of the nation. This says a lot.
In the end, the Trump celebrity-worshippers and the GOPe are going to hand the election to Hillary, despite 75% of the nation, in both parties, wanting something other than the Same Old Same Old... Hillary ,who has strode atop the DC pyramid for 24 years so far. We are a pathetic electorate.
You are essentially saying that you support Trump because you believe he has a better chance of beating Hillary. I can understand that.
But the facts remain that Cruz runs several percentage points better than Trump against the opposition. Unfortunately, both are losing to Hillary and Sanders. The losing margin is less than Cruz than for Trump but both are losing.
I really do not have a favorite. I see somethings I like in both and I would not have any issues voting for either in the general. I wish more people felt that way.
The polls have Cruz within the margin of error against Hillary, and Trump down 10... and Trump doesn't do as well as the polls, and Cruz does better than the polls indicate. Those who want an anti-GOPe proven Conservative candidate who has a real chance to win should be getting behind Cruz, not Trump. Trump won the Old South when there were 8 candidates, but the majority of his biggest wins were/will be in the most Liberal states. He got 49.3% in MASS, and will (probably) FINALLY top 50% for the first time, with the Primary season more than 3/4 over.... and only in his very liberal home state. He will NOT win those states against Hillary.
Probably correct, but Utah, Wisconsin, Colorado, and now Wyoming... Since MAR 22, Cruz is up 120-6. There could be some more surprises coming up, but the Liberal States (NY, MD, CT) are likely going to hand the delegates to Trump. Trump has NEVER topped 50%, even with the field down to 2.5 candidates. It isn’t until his home state, 75% of the way through the contest, with only 1.5 opponents, and in very Liberal states, that he has a chance to do so. That’s not very encouraging.
It has been nice keeping the loudest Trumpeters quiet for a few weeks, though.
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A new national poll has Hillary below 50% now. No one seems to talk about that and that is with only 2 candidates.
All very good arguments but probably won’t sway a lot of Trump supporters.
April 19, New York · 95 delegates...
Apr 26, Connecticut · 28 delegates, Delaware · 16 delegates, Maryland · 38 delegates, Pennsylvania · 71 delegates, Rhode Island · 19 delegates
NOTE: PA is weird... 17 delegates are assigned by the overall winner ("WTA"), but 54 delegates (3 in each of the 18 districts) are elected directly, without the voter knowing exactly which candidate they support! The ballot simply says "uncommitted". Those 54 could all go to Kasich, even if the vote is 48-48-4 with Kasich on the bottom.
The best chart I saw tracked the head-to-head results going back to JAN, and she hasn’t topped 50% much at all. She was behind Cruz for most of JAN-FEB, but they’ve been within the margin of error since. She was crushing Trump JAN-FEB, then they were basically tied for most of MAR, but now she tops him by 10 points again. I wish I could find that interactive chart again. It was well-done.
Trump will have the 1237+ by June!
Things are fluid. Trump will crush Hillary in a landslide.
Ted Cruz is going to come in not second but third to a guy who has only won one state in the coming weeks. He has no path to the nomination and you are going to see him exit the race. If he refused to get out Cruz will destroy his political career if he has not already.
As soon as Cruz hits the mathematical wall he will start getting the pressure to drop out. You will be surprised at who will start coming out and “suggesting” maybe its time for him to exit the race.
All this bad publicity Cruz is getting in voterless primaries is already affecting his poll numbers. He is on a losing path.
As much as Cruz supporters wish he would stay in it til Cleveland he will not. Trump will get to 1237 and be the nominee on the first ballot. There isn’t going to be a second ballot.
Winning 37% of the primary voters isn't exactly winning with voters either.
second that..
Ted Cruz could not even get to 50% in TX. He totally lost the South and now the NE in the coming weeks. When you are coming in third at this point in major States you are no longer a viable candidate. He will be out soon.
“He shut down the federal government in 2013”
You screwed up your talking points there lonely.
The reality is, he didn’t shut it down, barry did
But hey, keep typing, you could write a fantasy novel!
Bwahahah, President Cruz??
Not going to happen, never.
He just doesn’t have ‘it’ -
But the elites want a paper tiger up against hillary, so they’ll give us some useless loser to vote for...or not vote, as the case will be.
He did, but the republicans still got blamed. But Cruz was able to polish his conservative credentials which is all he cared about.
Now if he was a master politician he would have worked out how to get Obama blamed for shutting the government instead of the GOP getting hammered and actually achieved something useful. But that's pretty much par for the course, lots of posturing and few useful results.
If Cruz gets all the unbound delegates and Kasich and Rubio release all theirs to him on the first ballot, then Cruz cannot be eliminated until June 7th.
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