Posted on 04/14/2016 10:18:55 AM PDT by Kaslin
So, every pundit east of Wisconsin is talking New York and delegate math. Trump is still grousing about gestapo-land, already taking a victory lap in his Democrat-dominated Empire State. But does it really all matter? Has something happened with the other top candidate? Yes, Cruz is sharp, expert at the delegate process, but there is something more. Did he actually get lift off a week ago, and the moment passed so fast media missed it? I think so. I think we got break out by the guy long known as a talented Supreme Court litigator turned politician. Something has changed. Something has definitely changed in the heartland over the past ten days.
Maybe it is just spring arriving, maybe quickening pulses in newly important States, maybe just a “feeling” that closure is approaching – but something is suddenly different. Like the moment fog lifts, cement hardens or a recipe gels, something has changed. When exactly is not clear, but the presence of something new is in the air. Some say it is a new confidence and personal peace in Cruz. Some say it was “The Heidi Moment.”
On the evening of April 5th, after a stunning comeback in Wisconsin, Ted Cruz delivered the best speech of his campaign. The speech, which insiders indicate he wrote himself, was Reagan-like. Cruz projected genuine optimism, hope of a rare and unifying sort, the kind that awakens a great Nation to its better nature. He held forth a national vision, spoke inclusively, honored past competitors, and quoted incisively from John F. Kennedy and Winston Churchill.
Here, at last, was a presidential candidate becoming more relaxed, somehow taller, stronger in timber and magnanimous. “We are not here to curse the darkness, but to light the candle that will light the way out of darkness,” he credited to Kennedy. “We once again have hope for the future,” he nodded to Churchill.
What caused that turn of sentiment, shift in cadence, and elevation of tone? On the numbers, Wisconsin’s remarkable turnaround, and that day’s foreseeable echo into the future, was part of it. Down by 10 points two weeks prior, Cruz had never lost hope or focus. He overcame the deficit to post a 48 percent to 35 percent victory – shocking. This certainly helped.
But was that whopping turnaround cause or effect? And was there something else? Something beyond Wisconsin is afoot. With professionalism and attention to detail, Cruz won 69 percent of Utah’s vote, garnering all delegates. He worked similar magic in North Dakota, securing 18 of 19 delegates. In a workmanlike way, he won all of Colorado’s delegates. So, in a matter of days, he secured walk-off victories in four states, with widely diverging demographics. Maybe that is part of the shift.
Maybe it was the way he pivoted so smoothly into general election formation, at the close of his Wisconsin speech. He challenged Hillary Clinton on terms that will keep her awake nights, if she is not already sleepless over FBI intentions. Maybe it was the way Cruz elevated jobs and the economy, spoke convincingly of growth, reduced regulation, lower taxes that border security – inspiring those who put those issues tops. Or maybe it was something else altogether, the injection of something new.
Whatever the cause of this inflection point in mood toward Cruz, Trump is deeply uneasy. He struck back in ways reminiscent of a wheel spinning in mud, spraying the field with accusations of Cruz being part of “The Establishment,” then a “Trojan Horse used by the Establishment,” then a favored son in these four states.
Getting little traction in this stretch, Trump switched up his staff, sidelined his campaign manager, and derided Republican State parties, the Republican National Committee and the long-established delegate system as “crooked” and “rigged” against him, although many states have used their system for decades, and all rules were announced last summer, if not before.
No, something else is afoot. Cruz is proving himself a consummate, uniquely capable fighter, student of the rules, master of complex processes. And the world is a complex place. By contrast, gnawing doubts are eating at the Trump constituency. Trump supporters are beginning to see the candidate as not ready to lead, unable to digest a modestly complex set of rules, even when his own political fortunes depend on it. He is openly stumbling. Worse, he is flailing about and blaming others, his team, his opponents, his party, state parties, the state by state voters, the media, talk radio, the convention process – everyone but himself.
There is one last element in play, and it is a big one. To understand this element, which is assisting the swell to Cruz, one must watch that Cruz victory speech in Wisconsin. The speech was not Reagan at the Berlin Wall or Normandy, but it harkened to a better time, one in which Americans were “free to choose,” openly patriotic, more secure and more free, sure-footed and unafraid to be themselves, “a beacon on the Hill.” The speech appealed to Reagan Democrats and working Americans, but there was more. Heidi Cruz.
What happened that night – and is likely to happen in weeks ahead – is that a great candidate came into his own. And his wife, a working mother and professional, confident, full of character and caring, utterly captured the crowd. When Ted Cruz lovingly introduced his wife as his “best friend,” and spontaneously asked the crowd if she would not make a wonderful First Lady, the place exploded. That kind of reaction to a future First Lady has not shown itself for years. Maybe it was the attacks by Trump on women, including Heidi. Maybe it was her charm, but those moments are rare in politics.
What does “The Heidi moment” mean? A lot. It means that Americans – that night and in the weeks ahead – are waking up to team, a husband and wife of enormous depth, intelligence, character and good will. Ted Cruz is more than a cogent debater and smart strategist, presidential and ready for battle. Heidi Cruz is more than a thoughtful Mom, wife and professional woman. The two of them, together, are what we – as Americans – have been hoping on. When the final chapter of this race is written, New York will not matter. The inflection point of the race was that speech, that night in Wisconsin.
Good points. Let us hope that others will take heed.
Oh Lordy, I hope you are right.
Because NY is the bellweather of the modern GOP?
Is this for real, I saw a change and thought cruz is thinking I am not going to win, so who cares anymore....
Town Hall = Establishment = Cruz = Establishment
Sorry but all of that is now totally forgotten. Thats all it was - a Heidi moment.
So, that's what passes for political discourse this election season.
“Cruz is sharp, expert at the delegate process, but there is something more”......
Yep, the sharpest bull shitter on the block.
I still remember the Heidi game in NY when the Jets lost to the Raiders after the game was switched to the movie Heidi before the game was over. Still brings back bad memories.
Oooooh! A "working mother"!!!
And not only that, "a professional"!
BFD.
In Wisconsin, Every candidate Bernie, Hillary, Cruz, Kasich had negative or stop Trump ads. The super pacs were 24/7. All talk radio was #nevertrump. Cruz had the rino blessing of Ryan, Walker, Johnson. I have never seen an election where one candidate had everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him. I cant imagine any other candidate being able to withstand this constant barrage. It was relentless. There were the usual rumors of voter fraud in Waukesha County. Yet, Trump still got 35% of the vote and Cruz couldn’t break 50%. And Trump won Ryan’s hometown of Janesville Wi (Rock County).
I thought I was reading fiction and this was the introduction.
“Cruz is sharp, expert at the delegate process, but there is something more”......
Yep, the sharpest bull shitter on the block.
Please quit stepping on Trumps toes.
Your comment is vile. Wash your mouth out with soap! I am so very tired of the crass remarks. Can we please stick to the issues instead of all the infantile, brainless name calling? I don’t care who you are for or against, this is not the way to make America great again!!!!!
Goldman Sachs employs 37,000 people. Would you call all of them what you called Heidi Cruz?
Some of their people work with subprime mortgages, and a significant amount of their work in that area was sleazy or worse. I have seen no indications that Heidi Cruz worked in that area. Considering that her work was primarily managing investments for people with over $40M in assets, I very much doubt that she was ever involved in the parts of Goldman Sachs that generated their bad press.
Other Goldman Sachs professionals do asset management, mergers and acquisitions, and even government securities. I have no doubt that some of those employees are of questionable character and that others are admirable people. One of my close friends worked there for a decade and loved it - then retired to raise kids and fish in Alaska. I have seen no evidence that Heidi Cruz was involved in anything that justifies your attack on her.
Finally, I have seen no evidence that attacking the wife of someone 30% of republican voters admire will make those voters more likely to vote for Trump in November, if Trump gets the nomination that he is likely to win. Whatever your issues with the candidate’s wife’s former employer, do those issues really justify alienating so many conservatives and increasing the odds that Hillary will win the election in November?
The response by Trump supporters to articles like this are a major indicator to me that, win or lose, I am right in withholding my support from the Trump crowd.
No, but if NY has about twice as many delegates as WI, and if Trump performs close to what current polling is projecting, he’ll capture over 50% of the vote and will capture significantly more delegates than what Cruz won in WI. A big NY win for Trump also mathematically eliminates Cruz from obtaining 1,237 1st ballot delegates.
Also, Cruz is projected to finish 3rd in NY - a big downward break from any positive momentum out of WI.
NY also will allow comparisons between the three remaining candidates with regard to how they perform in their home states. Trump is projected to be the only candidate that won his home state with more than 50% of the vote.
“What does “The Heidi moment” mean?”
The Heidi moment sweet as it may have been does nothing to add delegates to Ted Cruz’s presidential easter basket.
The hard truth is that Ted Cruz has yet to attract more than 25% of the GOP voters. He has no path to the GOP nomination as of April 26th and the calls for him to exit will commence shortly after that date.
In the coming week or two Ted Cruz is going to experience a humiliating drubbing in the NE primaries. It signals the end of his campaign. If Jeb or Marco had the delegate count Trump has the party would already have forced Cruz and Kasich out of the race.
Cruz won’t do well in the east. He won’t do well in the west. He got beat badly in the south (where he was supposed to dominate). He could do no better than 44% in his home state where he’s supposedly popular. He won a few states in the Midwest, some territories, a Mormon stronghold with the help of the last failed candidate, and Maine...the majority caucuses, not primaries. He is losing by two hundred plus delegates and could conceivably be shut out in the final 10 contests. He will have no mathematical path in the next two weeks. Only in this election cycle can someone be losing as bad as Ted Cruz and have someone write about the “launch” nobody remembers.
Aren’t they exhausted from all the Trump Bashing over at Townhall? I mean, they never even stop to catch a breath.
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