Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
Hostage your ENTIRE post is HYSTERICAL I am still LAUGHING!!! Geez I certainly don’t EVER want to visit there !!!!
Cruz just lost today ...he won the battle, but just lost the war ...he’ll lose no matter what... enjoy !
How many delegates do these REALLY sleepy hunters have???
Joe, missed you.
Why not try posting something that makes sense.
Tossing out insults won’t help Trump win delegates.
6 days
LOL. Literally.
“I always picture that when Trump is on his knees praying to God, he’s kneeling in front of a full length mirror.”
I don’t know if Cheney and the Bushes are that close, just an observation, however Trump saying Iraq was a YUGE mistake can’t be to helpful with the Cheney mafia!!!
Whatever.
Regarding your tag line... there are eerie similarities between Donald Trump and H. Ross Perot.
Both billionaires with inflated egos. Both attracted fanatical supporters. Both cost the Republican party dearly.
This odd reality star has hurt the process this time. We have a wonderful candidate who cab turn the country around and beat Hillary and this weird guy comes along.
Of course, Perot was a staid fellow who required certain dress codes and certain strict haircut and appearance rules from his employees and I don’t think he was a babe magnet.
Not that the Donald is a babe magnet unless the magnet is money.
I think this is nonsense, Trump connected just fine here in Nevada, and I do not think we are much different than Republicans in Wyoming, or Idaho. There is no real difference in the size of the crowds that Trump is drawing anywhere, the only difference is the establishment has gotten better at cheating.
I would say that it’s called preparation, dotting the I’s and T’s, ducks in order, etc.
It’s true and you know it ... there is no way the voters will go for Cruz after this ...count me as one of them ...Cruz just met his waterloo today ...enjoy !
Whatever.
Could it be because you have nothing else to do in mommy and daddy's basement
My respect for your discernment just increased measurably.
I agree, caww.
It kinda highlights the difference between Cruz supporters who, at the end, would vote for the nominee of the Party even if it was trump and the hysterical Trumpers who consistently vow not to vote for Cruz.
I would vote for Trump against Hillary, but the good Lord willing, I won’t have to.
Oh, Doughty. As Rodney King so eloquently put it, ‘why can’t we all just get along.’
But the second post on this thread was a snotty (scuse the language) post from a Trumper.
I believe that in general Cruz posters are far more likely to post substantive, information filled posts, whereas trumpers are more likely to scream insults.
Just generalizing here.
The CO GOP canceled the voting in August 2015. So I guess you’re right, Trump was foolish entering politics as an outsider and thinking that whoever gets the most votes wins.
Doughty, I challenge you to find a Cruz post that is this ugly and mindless.
“As usual, another Cruzbot who deflects. Trump isn’t the ego-maniac you think - in fact, Cruz is more of a narcissist than Trump ever dreamed of being. Besides, that he is the spawn of Satan. Jesus said that those who lie belong to their father the devil. I rest my case. Ted is just like obama - every time he opens his ugly mouth - he lies.”
LOL
Thanks for your even-handed comments.
/s
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