Posted on 04/08/2016 11:58:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Ted Cruz wants to make the argument that he’s best prepared to take on Hillary Clinton in two ways. First, he’s an authentic anti-establishment conservative who has no taint of crony politics or connections to the Clinton establishment, unlike you-kn0w-who. Second, his organization is better prepared to out-organize and out-hustle the Democrats. Bloomberg’s report on Cruz’ fundraising helps underscore the second argument, with a total of $32 million in the first quarter of 2016:
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz raised $12.5m in March, campaign says in news release. Cruz raised $7.6m in January, $11.9m in February, according to FEC filings[.]
It’s impressive, although it comes up far short of the fundraising across the aisle. Bernie Sanders raised $44 million in March alone, almost four times what Cruz raised while locked in a similarly binary race with Hillary Clinton. That eclipsed their record haul in February, when Sanders raised $43.5 million. Team Hillary raised $29.5 million in March, more than twice Cruz’ haul. Trump has not put an emphasis on fundraising, although he does take donations, claiming that he can self-fund and remain independent of big-money backers.
The organizational argument works better for Cruz in Colorado, where he continues to clean up thanks to a strong focus on organization — and the lack of it from his main competitor. While many of Colorado’s delegates will be officially unbound this year at the convention, Cruz and his campaign have organized to put their supporters in the delegation. By comparison, the Trump campaign hasn’t even been able to tell who’s on the ballot, as NBC’s Benjy Sarlin reports this morning:
After a shake-up at the top this week in which Trump empowered Paul Manafort to manage the campaign’s troubled delegate operation, Sen. Ted Cruz swept a third straight Congressional District convention Thursday night. All three delegates selected were listed on a slate put forward by the Cruz campaign.
Trump aides concede that Colorado is not a promising state, but the level of disorganization at Thursday’s event suggested problems that ran deeper than the top-line results.
Addressing the audience, Trump’s new Colorado state director Patrick Davis told supporters to vote for the three pro-Trump delegate candidates on a glossy brochure the campaign distributed.
“Look for them on the back when you vote Donald Trump!” Davis said. “He’s going to make America great again!”
There was only one problem: Two of the three names weren’t listed on the ballot.
“That’s a good question,” Davis told reporters after his speech when asked why they were left off.
Er … yes, it is. It’s one thing to have a light organization due to self-funding, but it’s another entirely to have an ineffective and underresourced organization that fails to demonstrate basic competence. The problem for Trump — and for Republicans who want to win in November — is that it’s now very late in the game to be playing catch-up. Chris Cillizza makes that point in the aftermath of the Colorado fumble:
As Putnam of FrontloadingHQ wrote last month: “Colorado becomes a real delegate prize for the campaigns who are able to organize there. Those that gain an organizational advantage — and that is much more likely in a low turnout election without the incentive of a presidential preference vote — have a real opportunity to get something out of the Centennial state.”
Trump — as has happened so often in the past — got out-organized.
It’s unfair to pin this debacle on Manafort, the newly hired staffer in charge of fixing this problem. But it reinforces that Trump’s team is playing catch-up. Organizing is not instant; you can’t simply hire a new top guy in New York and immediately expect things in a congressional district in Colorado to change. You need to find people, you need to get up to speed on processes, you need to invest in resources — human and otherwise. None of those things happened in Colorado, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll be lined up before tomorrow. …
The race is now a slog for delegates in the mud outside Stalingrad, and Trump’s only now pulling on his boots.
Delegates aren’t the only issue, although right now it’s the first priority. Organization matters in the general election too, and this half-hearted effort so late in the primary cycle is yet another red flag about a candidate who seems ill prepared for the mantle he wants the GOP to award him. It’s also the second such red flag this week, and it carries the same lesson I noted after the Wisconsin primary:
It only took two weeks for Trump to demolish what looked like a lock in Wisconsin. His campaign spent weeks in Wisconsin, and yet did nothing to learn what voters there think or what they want in a nominee. Trump’s fortnight was a disaster of his own making, and a glimpse of the high risk a Trump general election candidacy would provide the GOP.
That risk might be tolerable if Trump gave an indication that he recognized the problem. In his statement after the loss, however, Trump instead railed about having to endure an “onslaught” of negative advertising and hostile media. Just what does Trump expect to find in the general election if he wins the nomination? If Trump folds only because of negative advertising and hostile media, that alone should have unbound delegates thinking twice about a Trump nomination, especially with Hillary Clinton and a mainstream media already hostile to Republicans waiting after the conventions.
Trump’s spectacular collapse from 10 points up to a 16-point loss in just three weeks is lesson enough for Republicans. Loose cannons might hit their marks on occasion, but their recoil damages everyone in their proximity. If Republicans want to win the White House and hold the House and Senate, they need a nominee with much better aim and discipline. If the Wisconsin loss reminds delegates and the voters still left to participate of this truth, then it will be a turning point indeed.
Manafort might be able to right the ship, and at least it shows that the Trump campaign has belatedly realized its shortcomings. But that’s a tall order for an effort that appears to only have started three months before the national convention, and seven months before the general election.
Bought and paid for.
Gotta hand it to his campaign and it’s ground game. It’s been very impressive.
It’s such a shame to know that mom and pops across the nation have donated money to a nobody that will accomplish nothing more than to have burned off their savings from their hard earned post tax income.
At least Ted got to act like a big shot for twelve months.
Now back to the nothingness that he deserves.
No one on FR thinks that $32M comes without any strings. Teddy is now beholden.
Cruz and his Super PAC’s have spent about $120 MILLION, Trump has spent $37 MILLION.
Hillary plus Super PAC’s have spent $220+ MILLION, Sanders has spent $140 MILLION.
The only candidate who has spent less than Trump is Kasich who has spent $22 MILLION.
Cruz is owned.
And is not doing his actual job, having missed at least 38 of 40 roll call votes in the Senate.
Lookin’ out for you, wink.
The establishment really wants their temporary man.
Yep.
And Reverend Ted commanded that all the money be brought to him.
And he gathered the money and through it high into the air;
proclaiming;
“All that stays up is God’s, and all that comes down is mine, Hallejuhah!!!”
They are rigging the outcome to deny the wishes of the voters.
Jeb!, Lindsey Graham and the other establishment candidates could not get the voters to support them.
Now they are getting the Republican Party insiders to rig the delegate selection.
Meet the new Bush. Same as the old Bush.
Yes, Teddy is now beholden to ME, because of my three $50 donations! Ha! I’ve got my little puppet! And here is what I want my puppet to do: CONTINUE to be the only candidate upholding and articulating social and constitutional beliefs! That’s an ORDER, Cruz! Now do what I say! I OWN you!!
Charles, since you own him, can you have Cruz do something for me? I want cherry Pop-Tarts without the frosting on them!
Yes, the strawberry ones don’t have frosting, but strawberry isn’t the same as cherry!
Yes, and he can do what you want too, but no-frosting cherry Pop-Tarts? That would be AWESOME!
it seems you are not the only one
I think you're looking for Bernie. He can get you no-frosting cherry Pop-Tarts, and get them for you FREE! Pop-Tart equality!
Sounds like more Cruz bloviating.
“The process here doesn’t lend itself to our kind of campaign,” said Alan Cobb, a senior Trump adviser based in Kansas who is on the ground in Colorado Springs. “Our expectations are really low. If we get a delegate number higher than zero, it’s going to be a success.”
“Trump’s best chance to win delegates in Colorado is the 3rd Congressional District convention, where one of his top volunteer organizers, Becky Mizel, is rallying support in Pueblo.”
In other words, the Trump delegate math has allowed ZERO for CO and will be glad to pick up any. The Trump delegate map has them reaching much more than 1237 without CO.
Samething in Wisconsin, Trump Campaign counted on having ZERO from WI, but picked up 6 which are bonus to the Trump delegate map.
As of today in CO, Cruz has 9 soft pledges and 28 remain available.
If Trump picks up even 1, that’s a bonus.
NY, CT, DE, MD, PA. RI are this month’s focus. They total to 267.
In May, there are IN, NE, WV, OR, WA, totalling 199.
In June, CA, MT, NJ, NM, SD totalling 303.
And then there are 323 unbound delegates that Trump is expected to take at least 100.
Trump has 743 won, but that does not include 25 he won in MI which by rules remain unbound but which Manafort will make sure are solid Trump supporters.
So Trump is today effectively at 743 + 25 or 768. Adding in a low estimate of 100 unbound from the 323-25, he has 863 and needs only 374. From NY to CA, he will need only 49% of the 769 up for grabs. And those states up for grabs are very strong for him.
Trump himself has said that if he does “pretty well”, not ‘amazing’ but just “pretty well”, then he gets to 1400.
If he does only averagely, he tops 1237 easily.
1237 is not the main concern for Trump, the main concern is the lack of ethics of Romney and his tool Cruz. The delegates that Trump wins can cinch the nomination if there are no shady rule changes or delegate defections. That’s why he brought in Manafort.
Trump will reach 1237 but as one of his campaign officials is reported to say this morning, it’s more than just winning. Romney, Ryan plan to hatch an attack on Trump at the Convention and Manafort is there to fire back.
So Colorado is not a big battle, by itself it will decide nothing. But Trump still respects CO voters and will send people there to try and pick up some delegates even though the campaign has factored in zero delegates.
The real battle is not even the 1237, it lies in Manafort’s lawyers ready to lay down the gauntlet to the Party of Romney using the RNC’s own rules and processes. There are provisions for rulings to be made that are constructed to be fair. Romney cannot change those. Manafort will make sure Romney is stopped before he has a chance to pull a fast one.
The Cruz’s nanny has also donated $3200 ($500 Sen, $2700 Pres). Some say it’s a problem. Anyone have an explanation what’s wrong with it? (seems like a lot of money for a nanny)
No just the Bush establishment.
You can not be born into the American Royalty but occasionally they let some one in though an election, but Cruz will not be one of them.
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