Posted on 04/07/2016 7:13:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In order to win the Republican presidential nomination on the first ballot, Donald Trump has to win approximately 62% 56% [see update] of the remaining delegates. With a few Cruz-friendly states still on the horizon, that means Trump has to win big in New York and in California. So far he’s on track to get a big delegate haul out of his home state, but a new Field poll in California suggests that his prospects for striking gold on the West Coast are slim:
Trump leads Cruz in California 39 percent to 32 percent among likely Republican voters, according to the poll. Kasich is running a distant third.
But in Los Angeles County and areas of inland California, Cruz, the senator from Texas, holds an advantage. The regional differences are significant because California Republicans award nearly all of their 172 delegates by congressional district, three delegates each to the winner of each district. Losing even a handful of districts could hurt Trump’s effort to amass the 1,237 delegates necessary to secure the nomination.
“The result that we got in this poll does not benefit Trump’s chances,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll. “If these regional differences persist, the delegate allocations will be more divided (among candidates).”
Interestingly, Field finds a strong correlation between Trump voters and those who voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger:
Likely Republican voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger now support Trump over Cruz by a nearly three to one margin, according to the poll. Republicans who voted for Tom McClintock or some other candidate are far more likely to support Cruz. Schwarzenegger himself has endorsed Kasich this year.
The correlation offers both a parallel and a demonstration of a lack of long-term memory among California Republicans. Schwarzenegger launched his gubernatorial bid based largely on his celebrity and was hailed as a savior for the GOP as the state slipped into deep-blue status. He won in the recall election that booted Gray Davis from office, and at first put forward a center-Right agenda. As soon as Schwarzenegger got his political nose bloodied, however, he threw in with Democrats and governed as a center-Left politician.
The poll shows that California may become a real battleground, even if New York does not. Cruz has an 11-point lead in Los Angeles County (40/29), which has 18 of California’s 53 Congressional districts, in whole or in part (via Moe Lane). Cruz also leads in the Central Valley by nine, 42/33, which would cover another eight districts or so. That puts Cruz in reach of 78 delegates of California’s 172 in the winner-take-all-by-CD primary, which would be enough to keep Trump from a first-ballot nomination.
Perhaps a bit more curiously, Cruz — vying to be the first Latino atop a major-party ticket — doesn’t have much of an advantage among his own ethnic demographic. He only leads Trump 35/32, within the margin of error, while John Kasich gets 19%. That could cramp Cruz’ chances in California, the LA Times reports, unless Cruz begins to heavily campaign on that basis in the districts where it will matter:
There are 14 California congressional districts — out of 53 — where at least 20% of registered Republicans are Latinos, according to Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc. The average Latino share of the GOP electorate in those districts is 34%.
“Cruz has an advantage in these districts for sure,” Mitchell says.
But Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant and the grandson of Mexican immigrants, isn’t so sure.
Cruz’s position on illegal immigration, after all, isn’t much different than Trump’s. True, unlike Trump, he hasn’t called Mexicans who came here illegally rapists, drug dealers and violent criminals. But, like Trump, he advocates deporting them and building a border wall.
“Cruz has never been a favorite of the Latino community,” Madrid says. “He’s getting support only because they hate Trump so much. Your choice is Trump or Cruz? Good luck….
“Cruz needs to get out of Huntington Beach and start campaigning in Huntington Park. That’s the only way he wins. For the first time in his life, he has to campaign among Latino Republicans and embrace his Latino heritage.”
It wouldn’t be the first time in his life, but it might be the only time in the lives of Latino Republicans in California that their votes matter for the GOP nomination, given the late scheduling of the state’s primary. It’s encouraging to Cruz that Kasich hasn’t gotten much support in this equation, but he’ll need to find a way to inspire Latinos in the LA and Central Valley areas to come out and vote. Cruz needs to demonstrate strength in this demographic or else risk the embarrassment that Hillary Clinton experienced with her performance among women in Wisconsin. If Cruz can do that, he may not win the battle in California, but he’ll gain enough delegates to give himself an opportunity to win the war in Cleveland.
One other key to watch will be the gender gap. Field shows Trump up 17 among men and Cruz up four among women. Cruz managed to neutralize that advantage in Wisconsin and crushed Trump. If he can do the same in California, it’s possible that Cruz can win the battle — and that might be enough to convince the rest of the delegates to throw in with him on an earlier ballot in Cleveland.
Update: Some delegate math from ConservativeLA:
@EdMorrissey I must be missing something. Not allocated = 882. Trump has 743, so 1237 – 743 = 494 that he needs. 494/882 = 56%.
— ConservativeLA (@ConservativeLA) April 7, 2016
I’ve seen both 56% and 62% bandied about, but CLA makes a good case for the former. I’ve edited the opening paragraph accordingly.
LET’S FIX IT!
hmm... just like polls that showed Trump +10 in WI.
[Interestingly, Field finds a strong correlation between Trump voters and those who voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger:
Likely Republican voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger now support Trump over Cruz by a nearly three to one margin, according to the poll. Republicans who voted for Tom McClintock or some other candidate are far more likely to support Cruz. Schwarzenegger himself has endorsed Kasich this year.]
Not surprising.
Cruz is coming on strong with 2 months to go!
Meaningless as Ted will have no path to the nomination after April 19th. Trump is putting the hammer down in NY with a full out statewide organization to end it in a week and a half. From that point on, Ted can only be a broker for a contested convention, which Trump will hammer home. Ted’s tepid support will crater after he loses the next 6.
And Carter winning his second term
Oh wait
cruz said Carson should drop out, hell he had staffers say he was dropping out.
Cruz then said Rubio should drop out as he doe snot have a path to the convention and even had other staffers for him saying Rubio was dropping out.
He then has called for Kasich to drop out as he doe snot have a clear path to the nomination.
After NY will cruz take his own advice?
Is CA winner take all, or would Trump need >50% to get all the delegates?
It’s winner-take-all in 53 different congressional districts.
Let’s see how the polls go when Cruz gets mathematically eliminated in a couple of weeks.
I have seen ZERO polls of cruz winning a state that Romney lost.
Wall Street is now gelling around Hillary (per breitbart)
Trump is “undiplomatically frank” with his statements and creates unforced errors.
Cruz blew the south by running as “televangelist in chief” and his errors are the product of hubris.
hubris is not leadership.
And Carter winning his second term
<><><<
The kind of funny thing about mentioning the Carter / Reagan disparity leading up to the election is a great argument that Cruz is nowhere near out of the race for the GOP nomination.
The law of unintended consequences strikes again.
I do not like any Republican candidate but will vote for them in the general election. Be that as it may if enough Republican and Independent California voters went for “Crazy Bernie” would that stop the election of Hillary.
I love how the media suddenly discovered the USA is a republic these past weeks.
“just like polls showed Trump ....”
Well, yes it did. Imagine that! lol
I think after he is eliminated the enthusiasm for Cruz will diminish and his pumpers on talk radio will start to come around.
Polls are nothing right now
They are just bragging rights
Also the election in CA is in June, so these polls are even more meaningless
At least the NY one is in 12 days
OK, You do not like any Republican candidate.... I’m curious to know who you WOULD like....
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