BOOM! Yes he should drop out...here’s why
RCP has the delegate race as: Trump, 743; Cruz, 517; Rubio, 171; Kasich, 143; Unbound/TBD, 129....for a grand total of 1,703 delegates thus far. This leaves 769 left in the remaining primaries...Total of 2,472.
There is one little fly in the ointment; Only 17 of the Pennsylvania 71 delegates will be bound to the primary winner. So, 54 delegates will go into the unbound/TBD pool of delegates. In this case, the actual number of delegates remaining in the upcoming primaries is really 769-54=715!
Today, Trump needs 494 more delegates from the remaining 715 to reach the promised land of a 1,237 majority in Cleveland. That’s about 69%.
Based on the current numbers, Cruz needs 720 more delegates for a majority and can’t get there mathematically as only 715 are still in play going forward. Oh well, he should probably quit now and go back to Texas!
However, when Rubio endorses Cruz (and he’s already hinted at this post-Florida) and releases his 171 delegates, Cruz will have close to 688; Oops...Cruz back is in play, but still needing about 77%.
When the RNC power brokers finally have their chat with John Kasich about dropping out and Kasich releases his 143 delegates to vote for Cruz, Cruz will have up to 831 delegates and will only need 57% of those remaining.
Of course, those wily RNC meanies will probably be able to swing the 129 delegates in the current Unbound/TBD pool over to Cruz bringing him to about 960 delegates. In this case, Cruz will only need to secure 39% of the delegates in upcoming primaries.
Upcoming Cruz WTA states where he will likely win include IN, NE, MT, & SD, totaling 159 delegates. These states would then get him to 1,119.
Of the other remaining states totally 556 delegates, Cruz would need about 118, or 21%. Trump could still need the 494 delegates, or 89%.
So, is Trump really in the dominant position of this race? I don’t think so...
Cruz has been consolidating the establishment forces behind him in his ascension, as he said he would always do...he’s also organized in every state to get his people elected in the local delegate races planning a second ballot win...many call this cheating...I call it smart politics and like his chances!
Trump continues with his adolescent tweets further alienating the party and jeopardizing his general election chances by pissing off most women. He just can’t help himself...
In reality, The Donald’s chances are now greatly diminished! It’s really time for Trump supporters to come over and support Cruz so that we don’t end up with Hillary! And, it’s time for Trump to save his coin and drop out!
By the rules, candidates are not permitted to release their candidates to another candidate. On the first ballot they are bound. On the second ballot, they are free.
tl;dr
“I think the Gope will hand Cruz the nomination, because reasons.....mostly wishful thinking.”
Trump supporters aren’t going to support Cruz. There’s been too much duplicity in the Cruz “win at all costs” campaign. Cruz won’t get crossover votes. Haven’t you gotten the party insider memo? It’s “lose with Cruz”.
If they pull this crap they will not only lose the presidency but certainly the Senate, maybe even the House, so bring it on.
We the people will either revolt or be prepared to get on the trains.
Great work.
It could happen.
We Trump supporters will remain strong and as you can see NY was out for Mr. Trump tonight and were not there for Teddy, in fact his visit to a charter school was canceled, as the students said he did not relate to what they want...
No way will Cruz get this families vote, so let granny Benghazi win...she is going to buy the position any way and her handlers will crush Cruz...
By the way, you sound, err read like a GOP staffer...what ever...I'm personally sick and tired of professional, lying, smooth talking, Lawyers...way, way too many in the Congress...enough pc to last a life time...
We Trump supporters will remain faithful to THE DONALD...
HAVE A GREAT WEEK AHEAD...IT IS ALL MOST OVER...
Yes Trump is in the dominate position, Because it is percolating ahead of the race that that Cruz is just another Globalist Job Killing anti-American fake riding the Tea party image. GOPe can steal one or maybe 2 more states for Cruz but not enough. besides, at convention, Trump is a multi- billionaire, if hes close he can BUY the other delegates he would need.