Posted on 03/30/2016 10:18:38 AM PDT by Antoninus
Latest MU Law poll in Wisconsin GOP primary (change from last):
Cruz 40 (+21)
Trump 30 (0)
Kasich 21 (+13)
Kasich will cost Cruz delegates.
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) March 30, 2016
Right. Most of the folks in my office have seen and get it. We keep CNN on, in our break room and they’ve laughed at mommy Snarly for giving Lyin cRuz cover.
The Marquette poll had a very small sample size (471 respondents) with an attendant large MOE of 5.8%. I wouldn't get too excited about it either way.
Another poll (Optimus) a had large sample size of 6000 respondents, with a MOE of only 1.14%. That poll has Donald Trump at 29%, Kasich at 26%, and Cruz at 25%.
Those are the relevant facts about the two polls, both of which are new. Take your pick.
I'd say it's close to a tossup...
If you really believe that then I have a dam in Nevada I'd like to sell you. Geezus!
So.. because the MSM ignores it, along with the $500,000 dollars paid to Fiorina's campaign by the Cruz superpac than we should all join the rest of the sheep?
You can continue to be one of the "fatally hip" who seem to be busy checking themselves for bowel cancer with their heads firmly entrenched in their rectums.
I'll continue to ask substantive questions and look for valid answers instead of devouring the next warm bowl of $hit served up by the MSM establishment.
Would you like some fries with that next bowl? I'm buying!
You hide behind your contrivances/accusations and I'll continue to talk the TRUTH.
You vote your conscience and I'll vote mine. Good enough?
>>I am curious if your analysis includes the cross over voters, which seem to be the margin that is giving trump victories in the states he is winning.<<
I understand that many of Trump’s primary voters have voted Democrat in previous elections. However, I also think that those same voters are voting Trump because of two primary factors:
1) He’s very clear on wanting to get control of the borders (I actually doubt he’d do it, but his supporters certainly think he would.)
2) He’s as anti-PC as you can get, rubbing the press’s noses in it every chance he gets. People have had it “up to here” with the PC nonsense, especially now that it’s coming to a head on college campuses (with safe spaces and inane demands) and in center cities (with the Black Lives Matter movement actually stopping Dems from claiming all lives matter.)
In the general election, which of these two movements will Hillary disavow, the PC movement or the open borders movement? Both are championed by the Left, so she won’t disavow either one. Cruz would stand clearly opposed to Hillary (or Bernie too, for that matter) on both issues and Trump’s current voters would see that, for the Cruz campaign would make sure of it.
On the borders issue, right now Cruz is taking flak from Trump supporters for not being tough enough. That won’t happen in the general, because the Dems and Hillary will be arguing the opposite, i.e., that he’s too tough. Ditto for the political correctness issue.
You’re asking will Trump’s crossover voters stick with Cruz or return to Hillary. To the extent that I’m right about the two main reasons they support Trump, I’d say that they’ll stick with Cruz rather than return to a party that overtly disagrees with them on both of the two issues they consider important. They’re leaving the party for those reasons; Trump is their present vehicle for doing so, but I suspect Cruz will suffice for the purpose.
And then there’s the issue of whether or not HIllary is facing an indictment, and the political machinations she employs to avoid it....and the GOP thinks it has problems?
>>WI is an open primary state which is Trump’s biggest advantage.<<
If Bernie Sanders wasn’t a huge factor in the Dem race right now, you’d normally be correct. But his winning of all three states last week by huge margins has him back in the race so most traditional Democrat voters will pick a Democrat ballot this time around.
If Bernie wasn’t there, they’d crossover to mess with the GOP and would almost certainly vote for Trump to do so. Have you considered why that is?
471 likely voters? Much ado about nothing.
Results for the Republican primary are based on 471 likely voters who say they are certain they will vote in the Republican primary in April. That sample has a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points.
We’ve been trying to tell you Trump people, ABSOLUTELY NO ONE likes Trump but the core Trump people. I can see absolutely no one who supported Rubio moving over in the Trump camp. You have a ceiling of support that you can’t break out of. No other front runner has been this long without cracking 50% in a primary.
Last things first. So you are asserting that since the frontrunner hasn't broke 50%, that means what? You select someone even lower?
Trump has good numbers for a large field. Does your calculation above account for number of candidates? Anyway, here is everything above 40% ...
These are healthy numbers IMHO for a large field.
Oh, don't forget ...
For you poll geeks out there.Press Release http://law.marquette.edu/poll/
Toplines http://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/MLSP34Toplines.pdf
Also of note, Sanders leads Clinton 49-45. Cruz and Kasich beat Hillary. Trump does not.
Do you actually believe that Cruz ( or Kasich :-) would win Wisconsin against Hillary?
If you say yes, you are high. They went for uber-liberal Dumbo over both McCain/Palin and Romney/Ryan. Believing Cruz wins there in the general is purely delusional, sorry.
If you say no, you are verifying what we know. The push poll is crap.
I'm getting rather bothered by all of the out-of-state Trumpers who "know" so much about Wisconsin.
Obama isn't running in November. There will be dampened enthusiasm among black voters. Additionally, this November will be the very first presidential election where Voter Photo ID will be in place. Out-of-state students will NOT be allowed to vote illegally at UW-Madison. Busloads of minority voters from Chicago & Rockford will not be able to drive up central city voting to 110% of registration in Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha & Madison.
The GOPe is looking to change the 8 State win rule, for one reason, and its not to help Cruz.
Chuckle are you want Quigley. The opponents of Trump have 5,000,000 more votes that Trump. He is the weakest “front runner” we have ever had, weaker than Romney. And when he gets to the convention without the majority of delegates, you can rest assured that he will not be nominated. Now, will Cruz? I honestly don’t know. But I know that the Cruz forces are working for a 2nd ballot victory. It is not dirty, it is the way the system works, and has worked since the beginning of the two parties.
Ah, another one laying the groundwork for their own cognitive acceptance of election theft.
You say "it is the way the system works, and has worked since the beginning of the two parties.". System, huh. Don't make make it sound like some profound constitutional article or amendment.
The candidates are really just trying to achieve ballot access for the federal election held in each state. The party bureaucrats however are jockeying for power and money. And somehow we have managed to grant these "parties" monopoly like status like MTA or Con-Ed. This whole thing is very very corrupt.
The system that you are seemingly willing to fall back on to get your guy in there ( umm, do you really think the GOPe would run him? ), is made up of rules solely to empower a small handful of fat cat bureaucrats to select someone with zero votes over someone with millions. Extremely corrupt.
This potential theft is something that Cruzers are now outwardly embracing. Should it happen, falling back on the "rules" excuse is certainly what many will use to sleep at night, but it won't change the fact that it is wrong. The only winner in that case is the party, especially the GOPe. And the sad fact is that Cruz and his Cruzers who conspire to block the vote/delegate leader will be saving the establishment, and nothing else. It would be the clearest example of a pyrrhic victory imaginable.
Let's look at the situation.
Results of the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 Donald Trump ... 7,861,671 (37.11%) Primary=18 Caucus=3 Ted Cruz ....... 5,779,837 (27.28%) Primary= 3 Caucus=8 John Kasich .... 2,821,264 (13.32%) Primary= 1 Caucus=0 Marco Rubio .... 3,469,278 (16.38%) Primary= 1 Caucus=2 Ben Carson ....... 692,693 ( 3.27%) Jeb Bush ......... 254,515 ( 1.20%) Rand Paul ......... 56,451 ( 0.27%) Chris Christie .... 52,679 ( 0.25%) Mike Huckabee ..... 47,263 ( 0.22%) Carly Fiorina ..... 35,287 ( 0.17%) Rick Santorum ..... 15,774 ( 0.07%) Jim Gilmore ........ 2,671 ( 0.01%)
Mathematically there is no way imaginable that anyone but Trump will be the leader in both delegates, and popular votes at the end of the primaries. It is a very dark road to go down to nominate someone not on top of that pile there. If it were reversed, and Trump was in 2nd place there is no way in hell I would be rooting for him to topple the leader. If he had zero votes? Not a chance would I accept it. Yet that is what they are preparing us for. And yes, Saint Ted is part of this cabal unless he changes course rapidly.
Rules or not, it is fundamentally dishonest and morally bankrupt to consider this. Rules or not, it is undemocratic, and it is also something far far worse and patently obvious to anyone with a functioning brain! What is that? It is illogical. If you actually want to win the general election, you don't nominate someone not capable of getting the votes in the primary when the only voters are (R)+(C). Because in November, when they kick the doors wide open to (D)+(L) it will be a bloodbath for the others. Any thought that Trump voters will forget the theft makes it worse. It comes down to asking who would vote for Cruz or Kasich who hasn't already done so. (D) and (L) voters? Yeah, right.
The GOPe has a reason to lose the general ( because they still win ), but that excuse does not hold water for anyone else, especially the Cruzers who are allegedly Constitutionalists. I see it coming right out of their mouthes now that they would rather lose with Cruz than win with Trump. That translates in English to they would rather lose the Second Amendment to Hillary than win with Trump.
Cruzers are devolving into useful idiots for the GOPe. And the dirty little secret they have buried in their minds is that all these rules were not set up to stop Trump, they were set up to stop the next Reagan pretender. Guess who that is. The GOPe must be destroyed. That half of the uniparty is half of our entire problem and we are within reach of ending their corruption. Cruz looks like he is tossing them a lifeline, wittingly or unwittingly.
I hope that people start thinking clearly. Forget hanging chads and the Florida Supreme Court, they were keystone cops compared to the GOPe machine.
“Rules or not, it is fundamentally dishonest and morally bankrupt to consider this. Rules or not, it is undemocratic, and it is also something far far worse and patently obvious to anyone with a functioning brain! What is that? It is illogical. If you actually want to win the general election, you don’t nominate someone not capable of getting the votes in the primary when the only voters are (R)+(C).”
Well, things may have been different in 1860, but Lincoln won under the circumstances you listed above. Different topic if Lincoln was a good president or not.
You think Cruz wins Wisconsin against Hillary?
And don't try pointing to off-year governors like everyone else does. I checked, every single one of them running this past year were not on the Presidential year ballot. Off-year we do fine, on-year is a completely different animal.
Madison goes for Cruz in the general? C'mon!
Well, things may have been different in 1860, but Lincoln won under the circumstances you listed above. Different topic if Lincoln was a good president or not.
Wait, what? Things may have been different? There weren't even primaries yet ( that I can recall ). That means no elected delegates. They probably cast ballots amongst themselves until they picked him.
That is NOT a good comparison, in fact what they are plotting now is a return to the original smokey backroom. That would have been their 2nd convention IIRC when they picked Lincoln, and circumstances were way different.
You gotta do better than that.
I take nothing with a general election matchup with anything other than a grain of salt right now. The Republican Party will heal if Trump or Cruz ends up as the nominee. If it’s a brokered convention, not so much.
Kasich is an afterthought to me. He has the same chance of securing the Republican nomination on the first ballot as you and I do.
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