Posted on 03/28/2016 9:09:07 AM PDT by Kaslin
We have talked about the power of expectations before and we saw it in play this past weekend when Bernie Sanders won all three contests on the Democrat side: Hawaii [or Hawai'i as it was spelled on CBS during the NCAAs] (70%-30%), Alask'a (82-18), and Washingto'n State (73-27).
The Hillary Clinton campaign made it abundantly clear to all who would listen that they expected to get skunked in all three states, but because of the proportional rules, Sanders wouldn't make much headway against Clinton in the delegate count.
So it was. As the Easter morning sun arose over the Continental United States, Sanders had only closed the delegate gap by 20: 56-36.
Overall, Hillary leads Bernie 1,712 - 1,004 including Super Delegates (Clinton + 708). Without the Super Delegates the count is 1,243 - 975 (Clinton + 268).
By the way, that is fewer than the difference between Donald Trump's current delegate total (739) and Ted Cruz's (465). The delta on the GOP side is Trump +274.
Sanders has plenty of money in the bank, is still attracting tens of thousands (and the occasional bird) to his events, and so can - and does - control the Democrat message agenda: Income disparity, education, trade, immigration, and so on.
All that is important because there is plenty of time until the conventions begin. Unelected Super Delegates are not bound to a candidate. Not to Hillary, not to Bernie. If the political granite on which Clinton's campaign has built its foundation turns into quicksand, those unelected, unbound Super Delegates are free to switch sides.
What might cause that? If the Department of Justice decides to empanel a grand jury (assuming it has not already done so) and begins to work its way up the food chain toward the former Secretary of State, that might have an impact, even if it doesn't reach all the way to Clinton.
Or, if Democrat voters determine that the polls are right - and they can win the White House against Trump with either Clinton or Sanders - they might well decide that they'd rather be true to their liberal principles with Sanders, than be required to suspend disbelief and vote for Clinton.
If only half the Super Delegates now pledged to Clinton decided to switch sides, the delegate math goes from 1,712 - 1,004 as mentioned above, to 1,477 - 1,239 a difference of only +238 for Clinton.
That's a far cry from the relative safety of the +708 delegate lead she is boasting today. On the GOP side of the ledger, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz spent the past few days in an immature - even for this campaign - schoolyard battle of "Your Mother Wears Combat Boots" and, apparently, little else.
You have got to give Trump this: No one else in America, maybe no one else in the Milky Way Galaxy, have made Ted Cruz into a victim. But, threatening, via Twitter to "spill the beans" on Heidi Cruz following the social media blitz (not by the Cruz campaign) of a spicy - but far from pornographic - photo of Melania Trump appears to have done the trick.
That doesn't mean it moved any votes, but the intensity of the discussion all but pushed the Brussels massacres out of prime time.
While the prospect of a series of back room - or even convention floor - deals to wrest the nomination away from Trump make for lively conversation among the CNN/Fox/MSNBC panels night after night, the reality is that is not likely to happen.
If I am correct about that, then the elders of the Republican Party might be wise to begin looking beyond the rest of the primaries, beyond the convention and beyond, even, the general election.
They need to decide if the time has come to throw the match: Let Trump be nominated and then do the minimal amount required to back his general election campaign and sit back while Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders is sworn in on January 20, 2017.
That would give Donald Trump control of the levers of GOP power for not more than four months - from the end of the convention to the final counting on November 8.
That would trade four years of Hillary or Bernie in return for probably retaining control of both the U.S. Senate and House, the majority of Governors and state legislatures.
I'm not at all certain what the elders would do with a political party that is as scattered and useless as Autumn leaves on a wet city street; just waiting to be swept up and recycled into something useful.
They might spend the next six or seven months looking at younger Senators and Governors who are the natural and necessary heirs of the mess they have created.
And, hand the keys over to that new generation.
I am really so, so tired of hearing from tired assed GOP functionaries telling us all what they think. Connected at the belly button to the DC cash flow of excess, insider politics and wizened expertise they have to spew out statistics from days gone by in excruciating detail that would gag a maggot. Who the hell cares what these minions of the GOP poweratti think?
They are some of the early casualties I am expecting in the reckoning.
That was the plan with Jeb, then Rubio and now Ted.
Play Kabuki Presidential Election Theatre, lose the election, keep congress and keep everyone’s family well employed as government drones and lobbyist supremes.
Who knows, they might dust off Romney’s campaign signs come the convention so he can lose again.
Please. The GOPe have been throwing the match since Obama took office.
More ridiculousness.
At this point if the GoPe and the dolts voting for these other candidates with no chance of beating Hillary, continue down this path, Hillary will get 8 years, and all these collectivist migrants pouring into the country combined with our own collectivist idiots will assure we are done. We’ll be at a point where voting will be pointless.
If he’s saying that the worst thing the GOP could do would be to try to finagle the nomination from Trump if he falls a few delegates short of 1237, then I agree with him.
If they do that, then not only does the Republican nominee lose badly in November, but Trump will be back in four years. If the Republicans want to be rid of Trump the only way to do it is to let him have his run, and then not win. Of course if he WINS, then they will ALL be out of jobs as he will purge the rolls in the RNC power structure.
I’m ok with this. In their minds they will be throwing the match, but all they are really doing is standing aside and letting people who want to win try to win.
That's like comparing a football and a baseball point spread. The Democrats have about twice as many delegates.
This column by Rich Galen has a couple of problems.
First one is, if Hillary is indicted, I am pretty sure Old Uncle Joe is ready to step in because the Democrats establishment does not like Bernie Sanders much, if any better than the GOPe likes Trump. Add in the fact that eight years of Uncle Joe would be an eight year extension of and a solidification of Obama and his legacy.
Second, we all know that the GOP and the GOPe is feverishly working to defeat Trump. If not at the ballot box, then by manipulating their rules.
Actually, I am expecting Paul Ryan to lose to Joe Biden, come November.
Clinton’s losses out west yesterday suggest that the campaign cannot be thrown to Clinton.
If Trump is treated unfairly, he’ll run a 3rd party effort, and I’ll support him.
All he has to do is prevent either of the other candidates from gaining a majority of the electors, and the choice goes to the House of Representatives who will likely choose the republican candidate for the presidency.
Oops, that should have read;
Actually, I am expecting Paul Ryan to lose to Hillary and only possibly Joe Biden, come November.
Here's a really crazy idea. I know it's just too much for these GOP Elites to actually help, in fact their "help" is likely taking the wheels off of the Cruz campaign. But, how about if they simply get the f&*% out of the way and stops trying to derail the nominee?
And here is something else for the short-sighted nitwits in the GOPe to consider. What if Trump wins without your help? What then? The GOPe will be dead.
It’s all about America giving up sovereignty and establishing the North American Union. No borders between Canada US and Mexico. Open immigration and trade. If you are a Cruz supporter at least watch the historical section from Reagan forward
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gXcYCwaBKnQ
Exactly right. When you look at a graph showing percentages, Trump is closer to getting the delegates needed than Clinton is to clinching the nomination on her side.
This us a solid analysis. Trump constantly picking fights with woman has disgusted all but his true fanboys. He’s sinking like rock in national polls. He may get nominated bit he’ll never be president.
Including the prez elections. McCain every fired campaign staff that tried to fight properly. Romney went on vacation.
Going back in my writing eight months ago, I NEVER, EVER expected the GOPe to support Trump in any way, shape, or form, regardles of what Priebus says.
Above and beyond the “neverTrump” idiots, many of the GOPe would simply not campaign hard, nor free up any resources. I have always thought The Donald was on his own . . . him and millions of voters.
That is why it is imperative that Trump continue to campaign to and appeal to independents, Blue Dog Democrats, and most of all, to the millions of Republicans who are sick of the party and who haven’t voted in years.
Don’t you mean “Should the GOP throw the match, yet again?”
These flaccid geriatrics are clearly terrified of being put in the position of actually governing, and the opposition to anyone other than their own limp mediocrities is fairly convincing evidence of that. Their decades in plush seats have made them too comfortable, and their intellectual sloth has made them afraid of any kind of fight. They don’t represent, and they frankly don’t care.
We are already there.
In 2012, Mitt Romney became the first presidential candidate in American history to win 59% of the white vote - and lose the election.
Since a clear majority of Republican voters still support massive LEGAL immigration, and since new immigrant citizens vote 80% Democrat, Republicans can only blame themselves for this political catastrophe.
To win the White House, the 2016 Republican nominee must hold on to Romney's 59% and then win a record share of the non-white vote, too.
Sorry, folks, that is not going to happen.
In 2016, Blacks, Hispanics, and a solid majority of Asians will NEVER vote for a Conservative!
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