“these polls come from the same sources picking the primaries pretty well.”
They are hypothetical polls the primary polls are not. There are a lot of dynamic factors that always occur before a hypothetical poll scenario actually takes place.
To give you an example, in March 1980 Trump was something like 15 points behind Carter in a hypothetical poll...as we all know Reagan won.
That does make me feel a LOT better.
Reagan was down by like 30 points at one point and Cruz AND Trump were down by almost the same against Hillary once.