Posted on 03/18/2016 7:03:37 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
No, I don't think he will -- not the nomination, not the presidency. But since that's what just about everyone thinks, let's play around a little and try to imagine how Cruz could at least imitate Barry Goldwater and become the G.O.P. nominee. Here's The Federalist's Ben Domenech with three reasons why the conventional wisdom on Cruz might be wrong:
First: Ted Cruz matches up with the activist base better than any other significant candidate in a long time. I don't think people outside of that base really understand how powerful Cruz's appeal is to the populist energized conservative voter, which is of course just a faction of the right, but is a sizable faction ... And he doesn't just match up with them on policy, he matches up with their brashness, their yearning for someone who loves the taste of blood in his mouth ...
Second: To the degree that this is a nomination battle about who has done the most to fight the Obama administration about two key issues - amnesty and Obamacare - Ted Cruz can claim that mantle and beat his opponents over the head with their stances on these topics. We underestimate how going soft on both of these issues is going to play in the GOP primary this cycle, particularly in the early going. As I've noted before, most of the candidates this time around are in roughly the same position on immigration: either full throatedly in favor of reform or tepidly in favor of it. But there is no indication that the position of the party base is at all moderated compared to 2012, and Obama's approach to executive amnesty has made the issue all the more toxic. Cruz can argue that his only fault is boldness....
(Excerpt) Read more at douthat.blogs.nytimes.com ...
We need jobs...and so far praying hasn’t gotten rid of Obammy or improved the “esconomys”.
Cruz is not a conservative — he is an opportunist who thought that playing a conservative would get him the nomination and perhaps even the presidency.
Note how he is letting himself be manipulated by the GOPe, in an attempt to stop Trump.
And he isn’t even bright enough to see that he is just being played and will end up with nothing.
They don't have caucuses for the general election.
Are you trying to advance the notion that Florida is a conservative state?
Except for MAYBE Colorado, I can’t think of a state he’ll flip that Obama carried in 2012.
Kasich has less than one percent in NY.
3 primary states. That’s it! Digest that for awhile. And if you need dessert, lost 6 out of six elections on Tuesday. Any other time and the chorus for him to get out would be elevated to the sun. He sucks as a candidate and person.
So...will they vote trump or cruz?
As I’ve posted in another post using the NYT calculator, Cruz could get a plurality going into the convention getting only 48% of the delegates remaining with Kasich staying in getting 10%.
So either Cruz or Trump could have the plurality going into the convention without having the 1237 number.
In that case the first ballot should go as indicated by the delegates as allocated by the primaries and caucuses - although there are some, but not many, unpledged delegates.
If no majority on the first ballot, then it is a contested (not brokered - where the GOPe actually gets involved) then......
....if the national convention is contested, 57% of delegates will become free agents after the first ballot, and 81% after the second. (Rove)
I’m not sure exactly how this goes but I’m guessing other candidates (not Trump or Cruz or Kasich) can offer their delegates to those still in, or the delegates themselves can change their affiliation.
Where will the Rubio delegates go? Or Carson’s? Only guesses but if the spread of the pluralities are close, that could give someone the majority. Perhaps the released delegates will go for whomever had the most delegates in the first ballot but they are not required to do that.
If Cruz has the most delegates, then Trump people will be making deals with the delegates to vote for him and visa versa.
That goes on until either someone gets a majority or if not - then the brokered convention ensues. I’m guessing it won’t go past 3 ballots and from Cruz’ comments, I think he’d release his delegates to Trump, to prevent a brokered convention.
No, of course not. Bush43 was a terrible liberal, which is why he (barely) won Florida. A trucon has no chance there.
Any presumed appointment to the Supreme Court will have to come during a Democrat Congress since Ted has changed from his Harvard days and ignores John Marshall, John Bingham of the 14th Amendment, Morrison Waite of Minor v. Happersett, Horace Gray of Wong Kim Ark, and Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes of Perkins v. Elg have explicit rulings all of which which confirm that Cruz, Rubio, Jindal and Haley are naturalized citizens. If our federal courts and judges break the mold they’ve established as protectors of the crony class, they won’t continue the charade by continuing to ignore the Constitution. Cruz is like a Rorschach test for those who pretend to be constitutional conservatives, taking advantage of Cruz’ “Low information voters”.
Just noticed the article is from March 2015. I think it was before Trump even entered the race
What did you do with the delegates from the "missing states" of Colorado and Wyoming? NYT is not the only one to leave these states out. The rules in both states are so convoluted, it would take 3 pages to explain them. Wyoming did report its first dozen delegates, but has another 17 to select, Colorado has finished phase 1 (choosing delegates to in turn choose the National delegates), but because there was no statewide straw poll, it's hard to get a picture on where Colorado will come down on April 8-9, when it holds 8 different conventions of precinct-elected delegates, to determine to whom Colorado's 37 delegates will go. I'm a Rubio delegate to the State Assembly on April 9th, will be voting either Rubio (he's still a candidate, just suspended, not done, he can still get delegates), or Cruz. It looks to me like Cruz will do very well, but it is difficult to get a clear picture.
Don’t know how much you now about New England and the Northeast, but Maine is in no way indicative of how the rest of these states votes. The Republicans in the state have a very strong Libertarian streak; probably why Cruz one.
BZZZZZT! Wrong. Romney endosed Cruz- that's not Cruz alingning with anyone.
Just means the race is down to Trump and Cruz.
Romney is backing Cruz as an endorsement for those who wish to cast a "Not Trump" vote.
But, going with your statement:
Christie and Gulliani backing Trump means what exactly?
" "Moderate voters, by their nature, do not like pompous arrogant windbags who delight in trash-talking everyone who they disagree with slinging tons of personal attacks. I have 3 mildly conservative daughters who are uniformly horrified by Trump ("a jerk like that is not welcome at MY table, ---oh, poor Melania!"). They are all voting for Cruz, though he is not their first choice. Daughter # 2 says, "Trump is not my last choice, he's my dead last choice!
In the chart The 76 “unassigned” are largely accounted for by Wyoming’s 29 and Colorado’s 37, which are usually counted as having already been chosen (they had precinct caucuses in early March), but the second stage (State Conventions) have yet to occur, so they are “unassigned.” As a Coloradoan, may I say that they both look to be leaning to Cruz.
Trump. By a mile. During home from work the other day I saw “Trump” written in the dirt on the back of an eighteen wheeler. Never before.
“Christie and Giuliani backing Trump means what exactly?”
I think it helps him in NJ and NY primaries
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.