As I’ve posted in another post using the NYT calculator, Cruz could get a plurality going into the convention getting only 48% of the delegates remaining with Kasich staying in getting 10%.
So either Cruz or Trump could have the plurality going into the convention without having the 1237 number.
In that case the first ballot should go as indicated by the delegates as allocated by the primaries and caucuses - although there are some, but not many, unpledged delegates.
If no majority on the first ballot, then it is a contested (not brokered - where the GOPe actually gets involved) then......
....if the national convention is contested, 57% of delegates will become free agents after the first ballot, and 81% after the second. (Rove)
I’m not sure exactly how this goes but I’m guessing other candidates (not Trump or Cruz or Kasich) can offer their delegates to those still in, or the delegates themselves can change their affiliation.
Where will the Rubio delegates go? Or Carson’s? Only guesses but if the spread of the pluralities are close, that could give someone the majority. Perhaps the released delegates will go for whomever had the most delegates in the first ballot but they are not required to do that.
If Cruz has the most delegates, then Trump people will be making deals with the delegates to vote for him and visa versa.
That goes on until either someone gets a majority or if not - then the brokered convention ensues. I’m guessing it won’t go past 3 ballots and from Cruz’ comments, I think he’d release his delegates to Trump, to prevent a brokered convention.
What did you do with the delegates from the "missing states" of Colorado and Wyoming? NYT is not the only one to leave these states out. The rules in both states are so convoluted, it would take 3 pages to explain them. Wyoming did report its first dozen delegates, but has another 17 to select, Colorado has finished phase 1 (choosing delegates to in turn choose the National delegates), but because there was no statewide straw poll, it's hard to get a picture on where Colorado will come down on April 8-9, when it holds 8 different conventions of precinct-elected delegates, to determine to whom Colorado's 37 delegates will go. I'm a Rubio delegate to the State Assembly on April 9th, will be voting either Rubio (he's still a candidate, just suspended, not done, he can still get delegates), or Cruz. It looks to me like Cruz will do very well, but it is difficult to get a clear picture.
I'm a Rubio delegate to my (Colorado) State Convention. I didn't think one second about going to Trump. There were two people standing for election in my precinct for Carson. They both stood up and prefaced their one-minute speeches by saying "First of all, I'm 'Anybody but Trump.'" and then said they were for Carson, ---they must be terribly disappointed with the Doc. Neither got elected to the higher assemblies.
All the delegates elected from my precinct were for Cruz (except for me, but now I'm for him too). Pretty much the same in nearby precincts.
How could Trump win my support? Step One: Donald, get on your knees on 5th Avenue and beg forgiveness for putting your company before your country and giving money and comfort to Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.
With all the animosity Trump has engendered, he will have the hardest time garnering new delegates. You can only ridicule their favorite guy a half dozen times before they will harden and turn away in disgust. "Hostility," which Donald claims to be a master of, works to get attention, it doesn't help you when you've made their favorite guy a repeated continuous target of junior high hostility.