Posted on 03/08/2016 6:09:04 PM PST by Kaslin
Much of the criticism aimed toward presidential candidate Donald Trump by other Republicans has been predicated on the assumption that he will lose in the general election. Trump's many provocative statements, which would be considered gaffes if uttered by any other candidate but have somehow worked for him, are generally assumed to preclude him from securing the broad support necessary to claim victory in November.
However, one method of analysis known as the Primary Model predicts that Trump would not only win in the general if nominated by Republicans, but completely dominate. From the Huffington Post:
Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent.
These forecasts come from the PRIMARY MODEL. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.
Early primaries are a leading indicator of electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.
What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is a cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year. This cycle, which is illustrated with elections since 1960, goes back a long way to 1828.
Basically, the Primary Model looks at how well candidates perform in their respective party primaries and extrapolates from there how they will do in the general. According to Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University and the author of the HuffPo piece, the model accurately predicts the winner every presidential election since 1912 with only one exception. Incidentally, the model also shows both Cruz and Rubio losing if nominated.
The question is whether Trump could be the next blemish on the Primary Model's record. Not all things are equal in this election cycle. Trump's candidacy has defied conventional political science in more ways than one. Can statistical analysis account for the impact of Democrats beating Trump over the head with David Duke ads all summer?
A dear lady friend of mine, who is a liberal leaning Jewess, told me last week that she could never vote for Hillary, whom she described as “an evil woman.” She’s voting Republican for the first time in her life!
Wednesday poll Trump loses to everyone.
Thursday poll Trump even with everyone.
Friday poll ???
Yeh models are predicting Globull Warming too.
Exactly! Now OR later. They will not give in nicely.
Her evil shows more and more, too. There was a report not too long ago about how Hillary attempted to communicate with dead figures from the past via seances.
Most bible literate Americans recognize this as industrial grade evil.
That’s right. they are evil people. And they would make it look like a “right wing TEA Party type” did it.
Unlike those, these are testable against prior election results.
Under ANY circumstances? Orly? Jus' sayin'.
I'll vote for tRump if it is his name there in November. Y'all need to back it down a thousand rpms or so. Seriously. This election is about the survival of American, not some fool who is likely Hillary with a comb over.
I’ll vote for Cruz if he’s nominated even though I don’t believe he is a natural born citizen.
Except for his cloture vote on TPA and the Corker bill, he’s been a pretty good Senator.
Yeah, agreed.
Well said FReeper!
A guy with 67% unfavorables? He loses 35-40 states.
what will be interesting is the senate races.. of those that are up for reelection how many are establishment candidates? How many will ask for trumps help? How many will get it? This will be interesting.
“38 million in vicious attack ads against Trump....WASTED.”
~~~~~~
Trump is blowing apart the entire corrupt campaign SCAM. Lobbyists run this country. And all they know how to do is waste money.
Cheers...to what you BOTH said.
If folks aren’t finally getting it, they never will.
Trump has awakened the silent majority, who’ve known all along what is going on in DC, and are sick and tired of DC living high on our tax $$. Hilarious that Mittens thought We the People would accept another DC cesspool politico as our nominee.
I noticed an ironic tweet, from one of cRuz’s BFF’s (Daniel Horowitz)....saying that it’s time to unite to knock Romney down.
Ha! They must see the writing on the wall...that cRuz can’t win the majority of the states in the primary or the general...and they’re wanting Trump crumbs.
interesting point
If anything happens to trump I would guess people vote from the roof tops.
You’re right.
Bill and Hillary rapping
Communism versus capitalism. Give the American voter a clear choice.
I think that's a data point used by the media to shape public opinion rather than reflect reality.
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