Posted on 03/06/2016 8:37:46 AM PST by SoConPubbie
One of two things happened in Louisiana. We know that the margins between the top three candidates in the state shifted dramatically between votes cast by absentee ballot and those cast on Saturday, the day of the election. That means that either that: 1) A candidate had a very strong get-out-the-vote effort, or 2) There was a broad shift in attitudes about the candidates.
When we looked at this Saturday night, it wasn't clear which was the case. Now, we have a better sense.
If we look at the votes in counties* for which we have data (culled from the AP's initial and final vote tallies), you can see that Ted Cruz gained strength after the absentee vote. The darker the county, the higher the vote percentage. Cruz's map gets darker. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio's get lighter -- the latter, dramatically so.
Another way of looking at it is the percentage-point shift between the final percentage in each county and the percentage from the early totals. Cruz's map is all blue, all increased. Rubio's is not.
One more way of looking at it, showing the shifts more clearly still. Anything above the line means an improvement between the final or day-of percent and the absentee totals.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
538 has him at 107% based on what they expect him to win going forward. That is speculative. As of this point, he has 31% of the delegates needed (giving him the extra 9), with 37% of the delegates already selected.
In Louisiana, Trump achieved close to poll expectations, sometime better. The difference was voters abandoned Rubio for Cruz.
As for how the delegates are divided up, you can bet it is crooked. This is, after all, Louisiana politics.
It was Louisiana elected Republicans who are mostly responsible for the new democrat governor, including, as per this site, the sainted Jindal.
Well, you don’t need to ping me to say that.
Believe it or not, I’m able to find out the information without your help.
Thank you.
Yes, we do .. because Cruz is the only true Conservative, and I am proudly voting for him.
Trump will not win in Hawaii. Please prove me wrong.
Going negative on Cruz is not going to help Trump. Enough policy ammo against Cruz out there....
Trump also needs to hugely up his ground game.
I’m not going to bet you on Hawaii.
third, third, third
Nonetheless, just being realistic about Cruz and his chances in those states.
I have no idea who you are supporting. I guess that doesn’t matter. This primary is horrible. But we’ll survive as always including this website.
I voted for Cruz in SC primary and have no problem voting for Trump if he’s the nominee. At this point, I don’t see me voting for any other nominee - Romney, Kasich, Rubio, Bush, etc. - should this go to a brokered convention.
The establishment plan 48 hours before each primary is to launch an all out scorched earth attack on Trump. They sway the undecideds and the supporters of recently dropped out candidates to their side.
It’s not a bad strategy. It’s been working. It’s really obvious.
Trump has to find a way to counter it.
One can defend or one can counter-attack or one can do a preemptive strike.
Defend: there’s no real way to defend. The talking heads will talk and the advertisements will run. I suppose he could run positive ads about himself, but I don’t think they are effective in a short period of time.
Counter-attack: Trump must actually take to the air waves to do scorched earth again Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich, depending on which of them is the heir of those undecided votes in any given state. His rallys are covered briefly by the media, but the attacks on other candidates aren’t highlighted in any way that would connect with voters.
The must find something real, something hurtful, and he must go for the throat.
Pre-emptive Strike: The above strategy of counter attack must be implemented immediately in states whose primaries are 7 to 60 days out.
They both won the same number of delegates in LA.
The point of the article is that the tide shifted dramatically after the Thursday debate. There is no denying that fact. All those polls in states that show Trump ahead MAY not reflect the current situation.
The GOPe hates Ted Cruz with a passion. The only reason they are now leaning towards him is because if Trump is the nominee, it would be a disaster for many GOPes running for re-election.
They still hate Cruz, but their individual political survival trumps their hatred for Cruz.
You may be right. But, we’ll see in Florida where Ted has most of his resources concentrated right now.
I’m willing to let the votes fall where they may. I hope Cruz supporters will do the same.
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