A Plan in Case Robots Take the Jobs: Give Everyone a Paycheck

NY Times ^ | March 2, 2016 | Farhad Manjoo

[C19fan]

Let’s say computers come for most of our jobs. This may not seem likely at the moment; computer scientists and economists offer wildly varying ideas for how deeply automation will affect future employment.

But for the sake of argument, imagine that within two or three decades we’ll have morphed into the Robotic States of America.

[varyouga]

“I don’t care how many Robots we have there always be a need for humans to do things for other humans - end of story.”

I thought the same for a while

But being in engineering, I recently got to see some of the latest AI in action. I no longer think we are are THAT far away from machines that can exceed the brain power of most humans. Maybe 1-2 decades.

These things learn entirely on their own simply from watching others (no task-based programming needed) and improve their own techniques through experience. EXACTLY like humans learn and they already seem to learn faster than humans in some tasks.

Also, you can mesh ALL the machines on earth together in real time. They will learn from ALL of their individual experiences as a mass collective accross potentially infinite human lifetimes. The implications of such power are staggering...

[DugwayDuke]

“Also, you can mesh ALL the machines on earth together in real time. They will learn from ALL of their individual experiences as a mass collective accross potentially infinite human lifetimes. The implications of such power are staggering...’

There’s no way anyone can predict how that will turnout. Skynet, anyone?

I do know this. There’s no way you will be able to prevent such things. The possible gains are too impressive to stop.

[SoothingDave]

Never mind robots, we should replace all forms of welfare and gov’t social programs with a guaranteed minimum income.

Free markets for everything. No one starves or goes without health insurance. Armies of bureaucrats can now do useful work instead of administer welfare state.

[jjsheridan5]

All that robotic labor could drive the cost of goods down to a level that is insanely cheap.

What happens to "capitalism" when the costs of production approach zero (in other words, when amassing capital is no longer necessary for the production of goods)? Serious question. At some point over the next few decades, that question will be quite relevant. What will be the purpose of currency, when prices start approaching zero (and where the range of goods available for something approaching zero becomes comprehensive)? Money is vitally important when most things you want require it. Money is not so important when most things you want don't require it.

[jjsheridan5]

I have a better plan. Teach Robot Design starting in Kindergarten.

Why? Most people don't have the aptitude for it, and it would be a waste. In the future, as robots get easier and easier to design, the value in teaching it at an early age is non-existent. It would be far more useful to teach critical thinking skills.

[jjsheridan5]

I know if you are a mechanic who can work on electric and hybrid vehicles you can have multiple job offers around here.

There is a relatively brief window in which this is true. But it won't last. It is only a matter of time that the process of building and repairing "robots" is fully automated.

[uglybiker]

Bring on the robots, just not the sex ones because that’s just, well-creepy.

True, but you know somebody's gonna do it anyways.

And they'll probably make a killing at it, too. Remember that the first business on the internet to turn a profit was porn.

[jjsheridan5]

The fear of automation is been plaguing us since Classical Greece. I don’t care how many Robots we have there always be a need for humans to do things for other humans - end of story.

Therein lies the problem. There isn't any "need" for humans to do things for other humans, other than make things for them. Outside of production, and a very narrow set of "jobs", like medicine, there may be "wants", but not "needs". And in most cases, the range of "wants" that require another person is quite small, even now (remember, this isn't about making/repairing things, which will be automated over the next few decades). Simple way to see this is to compile a list of all products and services consumed on a regular basis by a typical person, and also compile a list of all of the inputs into those things. And then categorize them in terms of whether or not they could be automated using currently-under-development technology, or reasonable extrapolations of what that technology would look like in the next decade or so. The list on the "human-necessary" side is quite barren. Quite unlike an equivalent categorization in ancient Greece.

[Mr. Jeeves]

In a 80/20 future society, 20% of the population will be employable the rest offer zero value to an employer, you are going to need a massive welfare state.

It's 50/50 today.

[wbill]

Sounds like the a perfect environment for islamic cancer to breed and expand into

True enough, idle hands are the devil's playthings.

[Eisenhower Republican]

“What happens to “capitalism” when the costs of production approach zero (in other words, when amassing capital is no longer necessary for the production of goods)?”

IMO, we already got a hint of the future during the China expansion.

Wages go to zero. Demand for raw inputs will increase. Property prices go through the roof. Commodity prices go through the roof. All those robots won’t be “cheap”, either. They will be the only real form of capital, and the pseudo-aristocracy will do everything they can to keep them out of everyone’s hands.

[Little Ray]

Why?

There are pleny of things people can do that robots don’t do. Arts and crafts for instance. Or tech support (gonna need a lot of that...).

In any case I wouldnt’t on those robots panning out. They have some serious limitations.

[The Sons of Liberty]

A Plan in Case Robots Take the Jobs: Give Everyone a Paycheck

Bernie Sanders' idiotic school of econ.

[needmorePaine]

Bring on the robots, just not the sex ones because that’s just, well-creepy.

What a killjoy. haha

[SunkenCiv]

You're in a Johnny Cab...

[dfwgator]

“We no longer live in a world of nations and ideologies, Mr. Beale. The world is a college of corporations, inexorably determined by the immutable bylaws of business. The world is a business, Mr. Beale. It has been since man crawled out of the slime. And our children will live, Mr. Beale, to see that perfect world in which there’s no war or famine, oppression or brutality — one vast and ecumenical holding company, for whom all men will work to serve a common profit, in which all men will hold a share of stock, all necessities provided, all anxieties tranquilized, all boredom amused.”

-Arthur Jensen (Network)

[dfwgator]

True, but Factories still employed many, and it didn’t take a college education, now those jobs are automated.