Posted on 03/01/2016 7:59:52 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Caveats galore abound for this new CNN/ORC poll, released on Super Tuesday morning, but let’s tackle the data first. As other polls have shown, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both would beat Donald Trump if the general election was held today instead of fifteen primary contests. They would have a tougher time beating either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, although those results end up in the margin of error:
Both of the remaining Democratic candidates for president easily top Republican front-runner Donald Trump in hypothetical general election match-ups,according to a new CNN/ORC Poll.
But Hillary Clinton, who is well ahead in the Democratic race for the presidency, would likely face a stronger challenge should Florida Sen. Marco Rubio or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz capture the Republican nomination for president.
In the scenario that appears most likely to emerge from the primary contests, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 44% among registered voters. That result has tilted in Clinton’s favor since the last CNN/ORC Poll on the match-up in January.
But when the former secretary of state faces off with either of the other two top Republicans, things are much tighter and roughly the same as they were in January. Clinton trails against Rubio, with 50% choosing the Florida senator compared to 47% for Clinton, identical to the results in January. Against Cruz, Clinton holds 48% to his 49%, a slight tightening from a 3-point race in January to a 1-point match-up now.
Caveat One: The general election won’t be held today. In fact, national polling at this stage is at best only a general guideline even in the primary contests, most useful for psychological impact on voters’ perspective on rational choices in the remaining primaries. The general election is still several months off, and in between there will be conventions, endorsements, unendorsements, news stories, oppo research, a pending criminal investigation and a pending civil fraud action, and even a World Series. Electability issues exist, of course, but to look at this poll as a definitive look at how a race will unfold in November is only slightly more reliable than rune-casting, as I’ve noted before.
Caveat Two: This poll uses a sample of 920 registered voters, not likely voters — so we’re not even sure they’re voting in primaries, let alone the general election. Some will respond by noting that it’s way too early to run a likely-voter screen on a question about November’s election, to which I’d respond: See Caveat One.
Caveat Three: Take a look at the responses on the issue questions in this poll. Trump leads most of them, and he leads the other Republican candidates on all of them. Most presidential elections are about the economy, and Trump leads Clinton by 13 points and Sanders by 21 on that issue. National security issues are a mixed bag; Trump edges Clinton 33/30 on terrorism, while Clinton leads Trump on foreign policy 37/21, with Sanders a distant third in both cases. On immigration, Trump leads Clinton 31/25 and Sanders by 15 points. It’s difficult to look at that and credit either Rubio (who comes in second among Republicans on all of these issues, including immigration) or Cruz with having a better chance of beating Hillary or Bernie in November, at least with the data in this poll.
Democrats aren’t buying this, either:
But there’s another group of Democrats warning that Trump’s unconventional approach — and the success it’s brought him in the GOP primary — means the rules underlying past elections are out the window this time. They’re concerned that Democratic leaders and strategists may be misreading the currents propelling Trump’s rise, and they’re cautioning against the notion that a Trump nomination would pre-ordain the next Democrat in the White House.
“It’s very possible that he could win. Anything is possible in this race,” said Licy DoCanto, head of The DoCanto Group, a public policy consulting firm.
Trump, DoCanto noted, has already defied the countless predictions from both sides of the aisle that his campaign would fade into the night.
“That’s continuing to puzzle those who stare and history and say, ‘This can’t be possible,’ ” said DoCanto, who served as an aide to former Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.).
My advice: Cast your primary/caucus ballot for the candidate you feel would make the best president, and let the head-to-head question wait for the convention. Consider these polls as mainly an entertaining way to look at the long picture, but with little connection to reality for now.
The fact that this poll thinks Bernie would have a chance against anyone immediately renders it laughable
#FeelTheBern !!
BS
Democrats loathe Trump. He's the Democrat caricature of a Republican.
Collectivist News Network v individual
Go Trump
The desperation is overwhelming. Is this the best the left has?
Is this from Ted and The Cruzers, touting CNN as truth again? Look where it got them in Iowa!
“This poll uses a sample of 920 registered voters”
That’s it? 920?? Not enough data points IMO.
This poll makes no sense whatsoever.
OK. Go Trump!!!
CNN and you are such pitiful bsers!
Before the big final debate, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a separate room together and by themselves. Donald leans over, and with a smile on his face, says, “The media are really tearing you apart for lying about that Scandal.”
Hillary: “You mean my lying about Benghazi?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “You mean the massive voter fraud?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “You mean the military not getting their votes counted?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “Using my secret private server with classified material on it.
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “The NSA monitoring our phone calls, emails and everything else?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “Using the Clinton Foundation as a cover for
tax evasion, hiring cronies, and taking bribes from foreign countries?
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “You mean the drones being operated in our own
country without the benefit of the law?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “Giving 123 Technologies $300 Million, and
right afterward it declared bankruptcy and was sold to the Chinese?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “You mean arming the Muslim Brotherhood and
hiring them in the White House?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “Whitewater, Watergate committee, Vince
Foster, commodity deals?”
Trump: “No the other one:”
Hillary: “The IRS targeting conservatives?”
Trump: “No the other one:”
Hillary: “Turning Libya into chaos?”
Trump: “No the other one:”
Hillary: “Trashing Mubarak, one of our few Muslim friends?”
Trump: “No the other one:”
Hillary: “Turning our backs on Israel?”
Trump: “No the other one:”
Hillary: “The Iran nuke deal? “
Trump: “No the other one:”
Hillary: “Leaving Iraq in chaos? “
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “The DOJ spying on the press?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “You mean HHS Secretary Sibelius shaking down
health insurance executives?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “Giving our cronies in SOLYNDRA $500 MILLION
DOLLARS and 3 months later they declared bankruptcy and then the Chinese bought it?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “The NSA monitoring citizens?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “The State Department interfering with an Inspector General
investigation on departmental sexual misconduct?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “Me, the IRS, Clapper, and Holder all lying to Congress?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “Threats to all of Bill’s former mistresses to keep them quiet?”
Trump: “No, the other one.”
Hillary: “I give up! ... Oh wait, I think I’ve got it! When I stole the
White House furniture, silverware and China when Bill left Office?”
Trump: Any and/or all of the above. Take you pick!
With all the above, and you are worried that Donald will not kick her A$$?
If so, you are more naive than her voters or getting paid by Clintoon or both!
Trump will wipe the floor with Hillary if she isn’t in Prison by then. Been stocking up on beer just for the big show.
That makes no sense. Curd and Ruby-oh, the Foam Party candidate, each only can garner a vote from about one in eight Republicans, but somehow magically can beat Killary? That makes no sense.
“This poll uses a sample of 920 registered voters”
Sounds like they stopped polling when they got the result they wanted.
Umm...yeah. Trump wipes the floor with Rubio and Cruz but somehow won’t be able to beat Clinton. Not reality.
The MSM must be doing back flips. Trump loses to Granny! They why are they attacking him? Why are they pushing Cruz and Boy Rubio? They should stand behind Trump because Granny wins and that’s their girl.
That’s why it needs to be Trump/Cruz. RAT-proof, fraud-proof and the feath of the gop-e and bureaucracy, with a solidly warmed bench.
Yet if this poll had Trump beating Hillary, the Trumpers would be touting this as evidence of good things coming.
Any poll this early, though, is meaningless when it comes to what might or might not happen in Nov
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.