Posted on 02/24/2016 8:06:54 AM PST by COUNTrecount
Three days ago the Democrats held their caucus primary election in Nevada. Approximately 12,000 Democrats turned out on Saturday to vote in the caucus.
Last night, a Tuesday evening, 75,000+ Republicans showed up to caucus. That's six times as many people turned out for the Republican caucus than the Democrat caucus three days earlier. Who has the enthusiasm?
In 2012 approximately 36,000 Republicans participated in the primary caucus. Last night more than double the 2012 amount came out to caucus/vote (75,000). Who has the enthusiasm?
In South Carolina the turnout for the Republican primary vote increased more than 20% over the 2012 primary turnout. More than 132,000 more Republican voters than 2012. (2012 Turnout 608,000 -vs- 2016 Turnout 740,000 - LINK).
Last night, again in Nevada, more than 35,000 people voted for Donald Trump and he won going away with 46% of the vote. That means three times more people voted for Donald Trump than voted three days earlier for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders combined.
Those are the stats, but that is not the whole story.
Here's something the media, or the various punditry will not discuss.
The regular Romney-type republicans voted for Marco Rubio, as normal (17,940). The regular social conservative-types voted for Ted Cruz, again as normal (16,079). The traditional party voters came out and voted for their traditional party candidate just like they did in 2012, and just like they did in 2008 previously.
All comparables being historically comparable.... However, what was different in Nevada last night was the addition of 38,000 more primary voters (than 2012) who went to caucus specifically and almost exclusively for Donald J Trump.
The same thing happened in South Carolina where Donald Trump won by more than 74,000 votes. (Trump total 239,851). The same thing happened in New Hampshire.
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
What is different in 2016 is the U.S. electorate showing up in record numbers to vote FOR Donald J Trump.
Trump is entirely correct, he has coalesced a previously quiet and invisible – "silent majority". The difference is now they are visible and not silent.
This is a PROFOUND PREDICTION
Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner
The Statesman | February 23, 2016 | Christopher Cameron
Professor Helmut Norpoth's forecast presentation took place Monday evening in the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, which was organized by the Stony Brook Alumni Association.
Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate's performance in their party's primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.
Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth's formula.
"The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president," Norpoth said, "if he's a nominee of the [Republican] party."
Norpoth's primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.
Complete story source:
Love that graphic!!!
20 years on it's clear that NAFTA, and GATT were a disaster for the US worker. The H-1B visa program is a disaster for professionals, especially engineers.
MFN status for China has also been a failure as they have literally carted off our industrial base.
My parents always said the 1960 election was stolen in Chicago by voter fraud and Nixon didn’t fight it because it would have ripped the country apart.
Do you see the ironic contrast between your comment and your userID ?
Every post, really? You’re acting like a jilted teenager.
If Trump was in Patton’s shoes when the Germans surrounded the 101st, Trump would have been hell bent to relieve the 101st. Cruz and Rubio would have dithered until the 101st was wiped out.
Let’s see here, Trump rents a hall for a rally, while he is speaking, a leftist thug starts yell and pushing people, and you say the Thug is “exercising his free speech”. You sound like a Democrat Undergrounder...
I lived in Illinois at the time and you can tell your parents that was TRUE.
The TDS is strong with this one.
And your parents were right, so the model is correct with no exceptions... interesting.
now if we could only figure out which progressive policies the Donald love the most, we could figure what we’re in for...
ymmv
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