Confusion in the Anti-Establishment Ranks

The National Review ^ | February 24, 2016 | James C. Capretta Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431811/trumps-no-anti-establi

[Cincinatus' Wife]

The GOP race is not over yet. There is still some time to slow and then stop Trump's march to the nomination. But that probably won't happen if numerous prominent conservatives remain under the delusion that Trump is leading a conservative revolt against the establishment.

Some conservative commentators - notably Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham - have been cheering on both Senator Ted Cruz and Donald Trump in the GOP presidential-nomination fight. These commentators like to lump Cruz and Trump together because this allows them to explain the Trump phenomenon as emanating from the same source they say has been propelling Cruz forward - a righteous conservative revolt against an unprincipled GOP "establishment."

But it should be obvious at this point that Cruz and Trump are tapping into very different sources of voter energy, and Trump's source - a decidedly non-conservative populist movement - is far more potent and dangerous.

Since arriving in the Senate in 2013, Cruz has been plotting to foment and then ride a wave of conservative discontent all the way to the presidency. Cruz's pitch, pushed by Heritage Action and others, is that GOP voters have been betrayed by "Washington Republicans" who abandoned their principles after getting elected. He points to the refusal of many House and Senate members to stick with him over a shutdown of the federal government as a way to stop Obamacare in 2013. His allies also often cite the support of some in the GOP for reauthorization of the Ex-Im Bank in 2015; they point as well to the budget deal John Boehner struck with President Obama in the final days of Boehner's speakership.

Whatever one may think about these supposed violations of conservative principles, it's a weak foundation for a presidential campaign.

Cruz's shutdown gambit was a political gimmick, as many conservatives said at the time and still do today. There was no chance in 2013 that President Obama would agree to allow the minority in the Senate to undo his signature achievement - Obamacare - less than a year after he had successfully won re-election. Cruz never described any kind of realistic legislative scenario that would have ended in GOP victory or even modest progress. What everyone saw coming, and which was unavoidable, was an eventual GOP agreement to reopen the government with zero concessions from the president. And voters were not in Cruz's corner for this fight, either. Support for the GOP fell sharply in late 2013 during the shutdown and in the ensuing months.

Cruz and others chose to make termination of the Ex-Im Bank their rallying cry in 2015. The case for getting rid of the bank is compelling; the agency directs most of its corporate subsidies to very large companies. But the existence, or termination, of the Ex-Im Bank is of no consequence for the performance of the overall U.S. economy. And it is certainly not an issue that will generate strong grassroots reactions one way or another.

The Boehner-Obama budget deal is an easy target because it increased spending. But much of the funding went to the Department of Defense and was strongly supported by many in the GOP. Moreover, it was not possible to get appropriation bills passed and signed into law by President Obama at the funding levels that had previously been set. GOP leaders had no choice but to cut a deal with the president. It is telling that this deal was originally cut by Boehner, but incoming Speaker Paul Ryan implemented it. No speaker or Senate leader would have been able to get a deal that significantly differed from the deal Boehner struck. That's the reality of governing with the two elected branches under the control of opposing political parties.

Cruz's other featured issue - immigration - clearly resonates with a large segment of the GOP electorate and has the potential to ignite genuine populist resentment toward Washington. Unfortunately for Cruz, he has been unable to out-Trump Trump on the issue. Apparently, there are some things even Ted Cruz is unwilling to say to get elected. Trump has had no such inhibitions.

Trump is pleased to have conservative commentators call him an anti-establishment rebel, but he isn't really trying to connect with voters based on restoration of conservative principles such as limited government, deregulation, and free markets. In passing, he mentions wasteful spending by the government and incompetent budget deals, but he is never specific about what he would cut (other than his implausible claim that he could save $300 billion annually on Medicare drug costs).

His focus is clearly on stoking resentment among working-class voters toward immigration and trade. That's what these voters hear, and that is what has propelled him to the top of the national polls. His voters aren't interested in getting rid of the Ex-Im Bank or any other agency for that matter. What they want is a wall on the southern border (even if it costs $25 billion), mass deportations of undocumented immigrants on an implausible scale, and new tariffs on foreign goods in plain violation of multiple international agreements. Trump says his economic plan will bring jobs back from China, Mexico, and Japan. His voters want to believe that is true, despite the massive evidence that Trump’s empty policy pronouncements, even if they could be implemented, would be disastrous for the U.S. economy.

For months, Cruz refused to attack Trump on the assumption that Trump's supporters were much like his own supporters and would eventually end up in his column when the businessman turned politician inevitably faded. In hindsight, that was a massive miscalculation.

The GOP race is not over yet. There is still some time to slow and then stop Trump's march to the nomination. But that probably won't happen if numerous prominent conservatives remain under the delusion that Trump is leading a conservative revolt against the establishment.

James C. Capretta is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Ted Cruz needs to take off the gloves and go after Trump.

[dirtboy]

Trump's source - a decidedly non-conservative populist movement - is far more potent and dangerous.

Dangerous? To what? To the GOPe? To a corrupt DC establishment? To illegal immigrants? To Muslim terrorists wanting to infiltrate the US?

If that is danger, bring it on.

[samtheman]

Cruz has all the electability of Goldwater, the likeabity of Nixon, and the eligibility of Kissinger.

[TTFlyer]

Bring it on.

[Hojczyk]

It is to late unless Trump implodes

This guy is street smart I doubt he will implode

[20yearsofinternet]

This is completely laughable.

James C. Capretta is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Yeah, I trust this guy completely to tell me who the "real" anti-Establishment candidate is.

I wish more Cruz supporters would take note of stuff like this.

[TornadoAlley3]

If Cruz, Rubio and Kasich drop out, Carson will win!

[datura]

"His focus is clearly on stoking resentment among working-class voters toward immigration and trade. That's what these voters hear, and that is what has propelled him to the top of the national polls. His voters aren't interested in getting rid of the Ex-Im Bank or any other agency for that matter. What they want is a wall on the southern border (even if it costs $25 billion), mass deportations of undocumented immigrants on an implausible scale, and new tariffs on foreign goods in plain violation of multiple international agreements. Trump says his economic plan will bring jobs back from China, Mexico, and Japan. His voters want to believe that is true, despite the massive evidence that Trump’s empty policy pronouncements, even if they could be implemented, would be disastrous for the U.S. economy."

Spoken just like a clueless open borders, free traitor.

[samtheman]

You left out: dangerous to the National Review. He exposes them for the GOPe suck-ups they are.

[Seruzawa]

Another “expert” explaining what happened but unable to predict anything. These expert crooks get paid to do this.

[mad_as_he$$]

Do you know what a 5150 is?

[GodGunsGuts]

If you would like to be added to the
TED CRUZ 2016 PING LIST drop me a FReepmail.

[campaignPete R-CT]

same people that are saying Trump is the Nominee ... when he loses a state will be saying it is over for him.

He’ll lose Wisconsin on 4-5 and temporarily create some confusion ... but wrap up the nomination in May. A lot can happen to Trump and Hillary between now and June 7

[corkoman]

And voters were not in Cruz's corner for this fight, either. Support for the GOP fell sharply in late 2013 during the shutdown and in the ensuing months.

Except that a few months later the GOP took the Senate and a greater majority in the House and State governors. What was that about support falling sharply?

[Cincinatus' Wife]

".....Rubio is the electability/establishment candidate. Trump is the angry/outsider candidate. Right now, Cruz is the conservative-purist candidate, which is good for about 20 percent of the GOP vote. But the Texas senator could be the anti-Obamacare candidate, which is shorthand for the undo-Obama's-presidency candidate. And in a primary in which voters badly want to back someone who is itching for a fight, that is a candidate who can prevail.".... - Jeffrey H. Anderson

[corkoman]

Do you know what a cranio-rectal inversion is?

[Liz]

Let’s stroll down memory lane “The 2014 Midterm Dem Demolition Derby” and down-ticket state wins have yet to be fully-mined, but this we know:

<><> REPUBLICANS WON STUNNING HISTORY-MAKING ELECTORAL VICTORIES

<><> midterms were a massive and awesome rejection of liberals;

<><> Southern Democrats control not a single governorship, US senator or legislative chamber,

<><> Democrat losses stretch from the Carolinas westward to Texas,

<><> 110 Of 140 Southern States election districts went Republican.

<><> GOP’s House majorities are so huge and solid NBC’s Chuck Todd says Dems can’t recapture losses until 2022.

<><> Some pundits say Republicans have a 100-year majority;

<><> when the next US Senate convenes, 30 lock-stepping Democrats who voted for Obamacare are gone.

<><> Ark and Ill (Clinton hometowns) have Repub governors-—important in a prez race b/c guvs control party machinery.

<><> Unprecedented MINN 6th Congressional district-—every single House and Senate district went Repub

<><> GOP now controls the MINN State House.

<><> Ohio’s historic GOP statehouse takeover (Gun Control is toast)

<><> Ohio’s Gov, Lt. Gov, AG, Secy of State, State Auditor, State Treasurer—all R-—Sup/Ct - 6 R/1 D

<><> Britt Hume sez: “latino vote is zilch”-—”over-50” is significant 30% voting segment.

<><> Republicans unified control: gov/legislature in 23 states (Ntl Conference of State Legislatures factoid).

<><> Repub governorships: Florida, Tx, Ill, Ohio, Mich, MD, Wisconsin, NC, GA, Mass.

<><> GOP holds every congressional seat in Arkansas; first time in 141 years...

<><> Environmentalists fogged out-—suffered huge losses.

<><> Gun Control Candidates blitzed.

<><> “War on Women” became a ntl joke.

<><> Clinton’s labeled politically useless-—most candidates they flacked lost.

<><> Montana, So/Dakota and West/VA Dems were forced to retire; no hope of getting re-elected,

<><> Arizona House recount race went Republican.

<><> AZ Republican McSally wins last open House seat (Dem Gaby Giffords seat),

<><> Repub McSally’s win gives GOP 5-4 advantage in AZ congressional delegation,

<><> Repubs hold 247 House seats (Dems 188), the largest GOP advantage since the Truman admin after WWII.

<><> 73 percent of LA’s white voters say told they “strongly disapproved” of the president.

<><> Republicans hold the largest House majority in 83 years.

<><> Republicans holds 68 of 98 state legislative chambers.

<><> 2015 Republican grip on state government has not been seen since the 1920s.

<><> Republicans hold or share control in nearly every state (7 states’ legislature and Governor are Dem-held).

<><> 12 states, including Missouri, Arizona, Arkansas, NC will push income tax cuts and fiscal reform.

<><> Illinois’ new Repub Governor’s top priority is reforming its nearly-bankrupt public pension system.

<><> Vermont Democrats allied w/ VT conservative Repubs to ward off voter backlash

<><> controversial and seemingly incompetent VT Democrat governor did not get the requisite votes to stay in office.

<><> VT poised to install Vermont’s first Republican governor in over four years

<><> Republicans now control two-thirds of the state legislatures.

---

The Republican wave did not end in November 2014. Later, Republicans expanded their majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives in the 170th district. Expanding a legislative majority in a blood-red state that twice voted for Barack Obama.

---

BTW, remember lock-stepping Dems who voted for Obamacare? Ten of the lock-steppers lost handily in 2014 midterms. 2014 turned into an historic election....for Republicans...Obama loomed large in these victories.

[jessduntno]

“Cruz has all the electability of Goldwater, the likeabity of Nixon, and the eligibility of Kissinger.”

Just had a conversation on another thread about how Cruz sometimes reminded us old timers of LBJ. Mannerisms and speech, etc. Wasn’t trying to insult, but the thing was bugging me about who it was he reminded me of and someone else said they thought that too.

[Liz]

What establishment?

HOLY HEDGE FUND! Jeb-You/re-Next spent over $125 million on his failed campaign? The GOPe must be choking on the chilled Cristal, Oestra caviar, and stuffed lobster in the country club Grill Room.

==========================================

IMHO, the ignominious collapse of Jeb-You/re-Next drove a huge stake into the heart of the establishment GOPe. Forget erectile dysfunction. The fallout of being politically castrated is devastating to a powermonger.

The GOPe/s de-b***ing began when candidate Jeb said he didn't need the Republican base .... and proceeded to carry on, business as usual, as his numbers sunk into oblivion.

Jeb telling a key bloc of Republican voters to take a hike is the consequence of the country club GOPe demeaning and dismissing conservatives as not being worthy of their elite party.

The entitled Jeb-You/re-Next took it as Gospel when he heard the Bush elders condescending attitude towards conservatives....people to whom the aristocratic Bush/s feel socially superior.

But the GOPe should know this: they will get no pity from conservatives for their woes;
we aim to stick their noses in the mess they made every frickin chance we get.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

No, I didn’t know what a 5150 was until I looked it up. I guess you did though.

“Section 5150 is a section of the California Welfare and Institutions Code (WIC) (in particular, the Lanterman-Petris-Short Act or “LPS”) which authorizes a qualified officer or clinician to involuntarily confine a person suspected to have a mental disorder that makes him or her a danger to him- or herself, a danger to ...
5150 (involuntary psychiatric hold)”