Posted on 02/23/2016 3:10:42 PM PST by justlittleoleme
With Super Tuesday just one week away, Sen. Ted Cruz remains the favorite to win his home state, according to a new poll.
Cruz is polling well in Texas. A survey published Tuesday by the University of Texas/Texas Tribune says he is 8 points in front of rival Republican candidate Donald Trump, with 37 percent support to Trump’s 29 percent. Texas has the most delegates of any March 1 primary state.
They are trailed by Sen. Marco Rubio with 15 percent support, followed by Jeb Bush (who has now dropped out of the race) at 6 percent. Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) and Dr. Ben Carson trail the field with 5 and 4 percent respectively.
Tea Party supporters overwhelmingly favor Cruz, 56 percent to Trump’s 26 percent. Rubio, though he ran for the Senate as a Tea Party-backed candidate, only grabbed 8 percent of citizens who identified with the constitutional conservative group.
Trump struggled the most with younger voters, according to the poll. He secured only 10 percent support from voters aged 18-29. His best performing age bracket fell in the 45-64 range.
Rubio’s most favorable age group came from the 65+ bracket.
Cruz led all age groups, but performed best with voters aged 30-44.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Dishonest reporting not to mention the running dates in the story.
The Nazi comparison makes you slime. The only one invoking any ‘Savior’ references are the holier-than-thous following Cruz. Thankfully not all of them do this.
Carry on, dirtbag.
Whatever. I just voted for Trump.
It is a classic lib tactic: accuse your enemy of what you are doing.
Trump will be in Fort Worth this Friday. Do you live close by?
No, I am way out in West Texas. :(
“his rabid supporters are not much different than those who wanted Hope and Change.”
Great, I can play that game. Will start posting pics of Islamics praying alongside pics of Cruz in his prayer stance...religious zealots, all alike,,according to your rules. Cruz holds up the Bible, we’ll post pics of your Islamic counterparts holding the Quran.
You want to play that way,,you can have it.
There are two pools of delegates. One is district by district, with 108 delegates. The other is statewide with 47.
The 108 is the pool that goes 2:1 in favor of a winner above 20% but under 50%. So, for talking purposes, give Cruz 2/3rds of 108, and Trump 1/3rd. Cruz 76, Trump 36.
The 47 goes proportional to ALL candidates getting more than 20%. Using the UT poll, Cruz gets 56% of the delegates (26), and Trump gets 44% (21).
Add 'em up, and one gets 102:57.
So, that rough cut 100:50 margin is close enough for talking purposes, but I think it misses the nature of the battle. Most of the difference between delegate awards comes from the per district pool, which swings 2:1 in favor of Trump for any district that he wins by as little as one vote. If Cruz and Trump "split the districts," they also "split the state."
Rubio has to get above 20% to get any share, unless there is only one statewide candidate above 20% and Rubio is 2nd in that (statewide) contest.
Just the opposite from what I have heard from the Cruzers. They predict a blow-out of 50% at least due to the fact that Cruz is the sitting senator and has a huge ground game. Trump lucky to top 20%. We will see Super Tuesday. If Cruz loses TX, he should get out.
It is Cruz’s to lose. A must win for him otherwise he’s a goner.
You're from Ohio and telling a Texan how things are in the Lone Star State?
Bless your heart!
Tough for Trump to win here against a sitting Rep senator. A strong second would do. Doubt Trump is counting on a victory here. Cruz must win.
It’s like Idiocracy, people are supporting not the brightest and best, but the bully, who crys when he doesn’t get his way.
We are domed.
Electrolytes its what plants want
We are supporting a winner. A loss will be the end of the GOP and the Republic. Cruz is not a fighter willing to do what is necessary to win. His sophomoric dirty tricks won’t cut it against Hillary. Cruz lost any credibility when he said he would not use Bill’s abuse of women against Hillary. He was going to just stick to policy issues. Loser.
Wow, Ted is up a whole 8 points in his home state. In a poll with a margin of error of +/-5%. Congrats, Rafael!!!
Well if Ted pulls another third place finish in NV tonight those Texas numbers may slip.
I agree completely. But if I'm in Cruz's shoes, the TX race is too close for comfort. If the Bush voters break for Trump over Cruz, for example, that narrows Cruz's lead. Cruz's campaign is going to have to put in lots of effort, and winning just/only TX may be worthless consolation in light of the results in other states.
Not to mention that he ran for senator as a Canadian citizen, lied about his and Hidey’s ‘’great sacrifice- liquidating allll their assets’’, and that he’s not even eligible to run for president or vp.
If a candidate were to receive a majority of the statewide or congressional district vote, said candidate would receive all of the statewide (at-large) or congressional district delegates (from each congressional district won). Otherwise, to be eligible to receive delegates in proportional to votes won, a candidate would have to clear the 20% threshold in the statewide and/or congressional district vote. On the congressional district level, that would mean the top votegetter would be allocated two of three congressional district delegates and the runner-up would receive the remaining one delegate.
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