Posted on 02/19/2016 10:48:11 AM PST by SoConPubbie
Ted Cruz has made a deep cut into Donald Trump's advantage in South Carolina, according to a new poll released on Friday.
The survey of likely Republican primary voters, conducted by Marist for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, suggests a sudden tightening GOP race only a day before Saturday's potentially pivotal contest — and after weeks when it seemed Trump would romp in the first-in-the-South primary.
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While Trump leads Cruz 28 percent to 23 percent, his edge is barely outside the margin of error, in stark contrast to polls released in recent days that showed him with a clear double-digit advantage over the Texas senator. In the previous NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted in mid-January, Trump held a 16-point lead over Cruz.
Marco Rubio finished third with 15 percent in the new poll, statistically tied with Jeb Bush, who picked up 13 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Ben Carson rounded out the field with 9 percent each, though barely statistically behind Bush.
Trump holds a clear advantage among those who said they have never voted in a South Carolina Republican primary, with 35 percent of that group backing him. The second-highest share of first-timers backs Cruz, at 18 percent, while 16 percent said they back Bush. The Manhattan businessman also leads among those 45 and older, unmarried voters and voters who do not practice a religion. He also holds a 2-percentage-point advantage over Cruz among those who said they do practice a religion, as well as among both veterans and nonveterans.
Trump has not taken kindly to polls showing him in any place other than first or otherwise losing ground. On Thursday, Trump laced into The Wall Street Journal in particular, one of the sponsors of a national survey that showed Cruz up by a mere 2 points.
"In my opinion, it was a fix, you want to know the truth," he told Sirius XM's Breitbart News Daily. "CBS just came out with a poll that says the same as every other poll. You know, Wall Street Journal came out with a poll, 'cause I'm not a big fan of The Wall Street Journal."
Six in 10 likely voters said they are strongly supporting a candidate at this point, with that share even higher among backers of Trump (71 percent) and Cruz (66 percent). Overall, 25 percent said they have a candidate they support somewhat, while 13 percent said they might vote differently on primary day.
But despite the new support for Cruz, there is at least one reason to proceed with caution. Among those who said they might ultimately vote differently than they indicated in the survey, Cruz is at the top, with 26 percent of his backers, followed by 22 percent of Bush supporters. Just 8 percent of Trump supporters said they might vote differently come Saturday.
Little has changed overall in the Democratic race, with Hillary Clinton picking up the support of 60 percent of likely primary voters. Bernie Sanders trails the former secretary of state, at 32 percent. In the previous NBC/WSJ/Marist survey, Clinton held a 37-point advantage over Sanders, at 64 percent to 27 percent.
The issue of race relations has loomed over the Democratic primary in South Carolina, a state with a historically important African-American electorate.
Among white voters, however, Sanders now holds a 5-point advantage after trailing Clinton by 11 points in January. The 16-point swing in his favor also comes with more modest gains among likely African-American primary voters.
In this survey, 68 percent of African-Americans said they would be supporting Clinton, down 6 points from January; 21 percent in that group said they would support Sanders, up 4 points during the same time period. Clinton's advantage among African-Americans under the age of 45 is more narrow, at 52 percent to 35 percent. She leads 78 percent to 12 percent among African-Americans older than 45.
Marist College conducted the telephone poll Feb. 15-17, surveying 722 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, and 425 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
Don’t lose patience, Cruz zombies are on full force. They will post this till Nevada.
Mister mojo rising Mister mojo rising Mojo rising Got the mojo rising Mister mojo rising Got to keep on rising ...
Last poll of CA (even if it was 2 months ago) had Cruz winning CA over Trump.
You guys are fibbing. Look at the 3 newest polls at the top of the above page. These are the most fresh polls
TRUMP IS WINNING BIG
DON’T BE FOOLED BY DICK MILHOUS CRUZ, HE MIGHT FINISH 4TH BEHIND JOHN KASICH.
You’re right - if this poll is right then we are getting six tickets out of SC.
With that said I don’t buy this poll. I think ARG will get it the closest, as they did with NH.
wasn’t this poll released on Wednesday???
Phony poll..with a 5% margin of error and only asked 400 people, and how do we know they are even registered voters?
We will all see tomorrow evening...tune into FOX BUSINESS NETWORK FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE...
But the rumor about Jeb not paying people after Saturday may have an impact on his voters. Could help Rubio or Kasich.
Then Cruz can cry like Trump and Carson that they rumor/Lie hurt him.
Wow, this is like the 10th poll showing Cruz doing well. No, wait, it is the same outlier poll.
However if this poll is true if Cruz does not win by at least 10 points tomorrow, it will be a complete failure on Teddy’s part. Can’t wait for the results!
This is Cruz country. If he can’t win there where is he going to win? California? New York? Make no mistake, nothing but a Cruz victory in SC would indicate a path forward to victory. It ain’t going to happen.
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I don’t know about “Cruz country”, but South Carolina is “open primary” country and it will be interesting to see from whence the votes in the primary come.
I’m not saying this poll is accurate, but whenever one poll gets one right (like ARG) the next time it’s often another polling firm.
It’s kind of lucky guess work on what the turnout will be. Plus if Trump is shown really ahead some of his voters may stay home and vote for Sanders in the Democrat primary instead. After all Sanders and Trump have similar appeal.
Isn’t Texas Cruz country?
Yep same with Trump. If he doesn’t win by 20 points he’s toast. see how stupid that sounds?
There might have been a plan for Dem Op Chaos supporting soft target Jeb once upon a time, but Hillary and Burney are in a death match now. I think most D votes go to Dems this year.
If those polled are so called very conservative within the gope, they are part of the cause of our abused, unemployed under employed displaced by too many immigrants and destructive trade policies middle class. We are through with them. Pox on them.
However if this poll is true if Cruz does not win by at least 10 points tomorrow, it will be a complete failure on Teddy’s part. Can’t wait for the results!
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Actually, if Ted Cruz doesn’t win by 40 points or more over the 2nd place finisher, it will be a complete failure on Cruz’ part. Unless Trump (PEACE BE UPON HIM) loses by MORE than 60 points it will be, in essence, a Trump (BLESSED BE HIS NAME) victory signifying that he will sweep all remaining states until the convention.
/sarc
But the independents may choose Trump as the moderate candidate.
Most Americans identify as conservative. Even though they may vote democrat. It’s a branding thing.
Instead of self identify they should ask platform questions to help us decide if they are truly conservative or not.
Like, what is your stance on partial birth abortion?
What is your stance on abortion?
Do you think the federal gov’t has too much influence?
Should eminent domain be used to build casino parking garages?
Should the President be allowed to by pass congress when congress doesn’t act?
Is the constitution a living breathing document as interpreted by the current supreme court?
If the SC House Republican poll is accurate (and who knows if it is...) Trump is winning every ideological slice of the Republican spectrum, every age group, every geographic region. Same as what happened in New Hampshire.
The good news is that time will tell very soon.
You mean they didn't post six different polls, once each?
It's reaching the point that most people aren't going to believe even one word that comes from Cruz or his campaign.
I'll put this out there.....I'm even beginning to wonder if Cruz wouldn't suck up to Jeb if it was a way to the Pres or VP nomination. Why? Has Cruz ever denounced Jeb in strong terms? Has he spoken out against the anti-US initiatives of the GWB administration? Why not?
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