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How Predictive Are Iowa And New Hampshire?
NPR ^ | January 31, 2016 | Domenico Montanaro

Posted on 02/19/2016 7:13:54 AM PST by justlittleoleme

Iowa and New Hampshire get a lot of attention, but their records in picking presidents, let alone nominees, is spotty (as you can see from the chart above). But that doesn't mean the states don't matter. They have been effective at weeding the field of candidates, and they're about momentum for those later states.

Plus, in the last 40 years, just one person has gone on to win the presidency after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire - Bill Clinton.

-snip-

No Republican has become the nominee in the last 40 years without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire.

(Excerpt) Read more at npr.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: South Carolina; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: cruz; iowa; newhampshire; predictive; trump

1 posted on 02/19/2016 7:13:54 AM PST by justlittleoleme
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To: justlittleoleme

And No Republican has won the White House in 40 years without winning either NH or Iowa.

but let not let the inconvenient facts get in the way of the wishful thinking Meme.


2 posted on 02/19/2016 7:16:07 AM PST by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: justlittleoleme

Everyone grinds their preferred axe.

Tell an observer from Kazakhstan that the last two American Presidents, who held office for a total of 16 years, began by winning the Iowa caucuses, and that observer would not reasonably conclude that the Iowa caucuses are meaningless.


3 posted on 02/19/2016 7:18:45 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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4 posted on 02/19/2016 7:19:52 AM PST by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: justlittleoleme

Other analysis has shown the highest correlation is between winning NH, being 1 or 2 in Iowa, and haveing a strong lead in national polls at this point in time.

GO TRUMP!


5 posted on 02/19/2016 7:21:04 AM PST by bigbob ("Victorious warriors win first and then go to war" Sun Tzu.)
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To: justlittleoleme

Well SC is definitely a bellweather state so we shall see tomorrow. :-)


6 posted on 02/19/2016 7:21:10 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: MNJohnnie

And No Republican has won the White House in 40 years without winning either NH or Iowa.

but let not let the inconvenient facts get in the way of the wishful thinking Meme.


Facts? NPR dont need no stinking facts.


7 posted on 02/19/2016 7:23:14 AM PST by samtheman (Elect Trump, Build Wall. End Censorship.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Bellweather means Democrats can choose our candidate as in John McCain.


8 posted on 02/19/2016 7:24:34 AM PST by Hattie
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To: justlittleoleme

I’m just trying to get through potential October Friday today.. 10 hrs to go...


9 posted on 02/19/2016 7:28:34 AM PST by txhurl (I'm NO LONGER with the Nasty Canadian '16 (well, unless he wins ;))(and he did))
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To: justlittleoleme

In other news, I just got an email from John Kasich titled “surging”...


10 posted on 02/19/2016 7:33:45 AM PST by bigbob ("Victorious warriors win first and then go to war" Sun Tzu.)
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To: justlittleoleme

Now is not like then. IA and NH do NOT matter. Super Tuesday matters. And just because a nominee won it in the past doesn’t mean it was necessary. Sometimes the clear frontrunner just wins most everything.

IA and NH do NOT matter.


11 posted on 02/19/2016 7:38:08 AM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: Hattie

Bellweather as in indicative of winning the nomination. But nice try though. :-)


12 posted on 02/19/2016 7:38:53 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: justlittleoleme

NPR = TDS


13 posted on 02/19/2016 7:40:40 AM PST by JPG (What's the difference between the Rats and the GOPe? Nothing.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Yes we will see, I hope whatever happens in the coming months and whomever gets the nomination is the best thing for our nation. I think I know what that is, and that is Ted Cruz. You obviously differ in opinion.

Regardless, I am just praying that whatever is best for our great nation, happens.


14 posted on 02/19/2016 7:45:07 AM PST by justlittleoleme (Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.)
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To: RIghtwardHo

Sounds like what a Bushie would say!


15 posted on 02/19/2016 7:47:06 AM PST by New Jersey Realist (America: home of the free because of the brave)
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To: justlittleoleme

16 posted on 02/19/2016 7:49:36 AM PST by RavenLooneyToon (Trump or Cruz, if you don't vote then STFU and leave the country, non-voters =non-Republic.)
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To: justlittleoleme

How predictive is anything? To the right under Front Page News I see, “Trump extends his lead in SC” immediately followed by “Poll: Cruz cuts into Trump SC lead.”

And a previous FRiend posted that he received an email from Kaisich leading off with “SURGING.”

Geeze Louise! This is getting tiresome.


17 posted on 02/19/2016 7:54:03 AM PST by New Jersey Realist (America: home of the free because of the brave)
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To: New Jersey Realist
Cruz "character":

1. Phony summonses mailed out, scaring people to vote for Cruz.

2. Claiming Carson quit, presinc captains told voters "vote for Cruz"

3. Campaigning in the 800 churches, showing video "vote for me" with his preacher/father stomping for him.

4. "Brilliant" lawyer, did not know he was Canadian citizen and that he is not Natural Born Citizen, not eligible for office of P or VP.

Just enough to beat Trump in IA, apologize, rinse and repeat?

18 posted on 02/19/2016 8:38:55 AM PST by Leo Carpathian (FReeeeepeesssssed)
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To: justlittleoleme

There is nothing that would make them legitimate predictors, but that won’t stop anyone from making wild predictions based on the outcome.


19 posted on 02/19/2016 9:05:35 AM PST by I want the USA back (The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it. Orwell.)
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To: justlittleoleme

I am of the opinion that Iowa and NH do NOT serve to pick the winner. Rather they serve to knock off the bottom tier of candidates.


20 posted on 02/19/2016 9:21:14 AM PST by taxcontrol ( The GOPe treats the conservative base like slaves by taking their votes and refuses to pay)
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