[Jeff Head]

I have been keeping a running average of four major polls since September, each week or two.

This time I have added the actual Primary votes in because those are the ones that count. So what you have is the average numbers between the four latest major polls and the two actual votes to date, IA and NH. I will add the other primaries in as they come.

This is what that average produces this wee as of today, Wednesday, February 17, 2016:

A little erosion overall for Trump, but he is still maintaining a significant lead. Rubio is climbing...as is Kasich. Carson has fallen way off, Bush remains down low.

[grania]

That NBC/WSJ poll is an outlier by a lot. The only other lead Cruz had is in Iowa, so it's two weeks ago.

It has to go back to the sample set. Did it skew toward WSJ readers?