Goodbye Galaxy
Posted on 02/13/2016 10:50:27 AM PST by Rusty0604
As you can see, Turkey has begun shelling Aleppo in what is indeed a very serious escalation that will likely prompt a Russian response.
"Shelling was reported at Menagh air base, a former Syrian Air Force facility that Kurds seized from Islamist rebels just days ago, and at three other positions between the airport and Turkish border," The Independent reports. "The air base has been a key target for several parties in the Syrian civil war since 2012, being besieged by rebels for almost a year until it was seized by a coalition including an early form of Isis and the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra in August 2013 [and] it remained in rebel hands until Thursday, when Kurdish PYD fighters capitalised on the diversion caused by Bashar al-Assad’s forces and Russian air strikes attacking rebel areas to the south to seize Menagh."
"A Kurdish official confirmed the shelling of Menagh air base in the northern Aleppo countryside, which he said had been captured by the Kurdish-allied Jaysh al-Thuwwar group rather than the Kurdish YPG militia," Reuters says, adding that "Both are part of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance." That group, you're reminded, was the subject of intense scrutiny late last year as we documented in our classic piece "Full Metal Retard: US Launches "Performance-Based" Ammo Paradrop Program For Make-Believe 'Syrian Arabs.'" It's the same group the US has been paradropping weapons to.
To sum up, Turkey is deliberately attempting to reverse gains made by the US-backed Kurds in an area that is under siege by the Russians and Iran. Or, more simply: utter chaos.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
“with no significant logistic link even by air, if the Turks get serious.”
If the Turks “get serious” and decide to elect for all out war with Russia, are they assuming the Russians may not also decide to get serious? Ultimately, Turkey cannot defeat Russia alone. No freaking way. And Russian does have an ultimate trump card in a nuclear force. But they can mount a deadly conventional attack.
But even more fun, they can arm, train, and supply kurds INSIDE of Turkey.
Erdogan could be personally targeted.
Turkey in its current Islamic regime cannot survive the damage the Russians can put on them if they get exceedingly angry, such as shooting up Latakia or shooting up the supply lines to Latakia.
Sink a ship or shoot down a cargo plane and the Turks better stock up on the 5 million SPF sunscreen.
Old habits die hard.
Anyway, the Turks have the artillery, masses of it, that the Syrians/Russians haven’t got. They also have masses of men that the others havent, both the Syrian Army and its Allies main weakness was a manpower shortage. It will take weeks for the Russians to mobilize and get to the Turkish border.
If the Turks go all out no magic weapons will save the Russian bases.
S400s are no good against rocket barrages, not are they immune to getting overrun by a very short Turkish advance.
“Time to live with the bats and draw paintings of the colorful skies on the cave walls.”
enjoyed that,
Goodbye Galaxy
You can always change it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLCF7vPanrY
Watch this and get your mind blown. Nukes going off in places I had no idea they had been fired off at.
I thought I saw scaffolding around the dome just a few days ago on tv.
Russia and Turkey go at it; we watch.
Zero backs down and goes play another 18 rounds. Drinks and ? later with Reggie... (it IS Valentine’s day).
We have to assume no nukes, because if they are used whatever happens in Syria and Turkey will be moot. It will be a global crisis.
On a scale of limited war, if the Turks come over the Syrian border I don’t see what the Russians can do about it.
The Russians are NOT on the Turkish border. They have to invade a country or two to get there, and organize logistics across them, over nasty mountain terrain, and then they are up against even mire nasty mountain terrain. The Turks have months to deal with business in Syria.
The Russians can annoy the Turks by attacking across the Black Sea. But the Turks can do worse simply by closing the straits. The ancient Turkish Trump.
June 25, 1950
Saudis and the Turks are now set to invade, which of course means that the IRGC and Hassan Nasrallah’s army are set to come into direct contact with Turkish and Saudi troops, setting the stage for an all-out sectarian war...
Could work much to Russian advantage. Rab can but opine that oil will be hitting 180 USD very soon.
“But the Turks can do worse simply by closing the straits.”
Russia is very desirous of a warm-water port and has been for a long time.
fascinating article.
these bad boys are brutal but it seems a very large number would be needed for nuclear winter.
If the Russians attack Turkey, there can be no better way to unite the Turks behind that fool Erdogan. Every Turk will be a patriot again.
The Russians certainly will get the Kurds riled up against the Turks, but note that this was standard Soviet policy for decades, that failed over and over, and that was when the Soviets held a border on Turkey. I think the Turks can deal with it, seeing as the gloves will be off.
And you assume that if the Turks conduct a mass artillery and rocket attack on a Russian air force base, and try to over run it with a human wave, that the Russians will just grin, go home and say “guess we lost THAT one”?
Everything about that culture indicates the opposite. \They would be in for a violent response I think. Like medium range missiles, big ones coming in from Russia and destroying everywhere Erdogan might be that day. Turkish ships being sunk. And actually an S400 does have a fine anti missile capability, it is as close as you can get to a violation of the ABM treaty.
But even more fun, its highly mobile and concealable and essentially makes Turkey a no fly zone.
The Turk air force is grounded.
And lets say you COULD somehow get all the S400s in a spectacular first strike.
The same weapons are sitting on Russian navy ships right offshore.
Turkey planning to sink some Russian ships? Very doubtful.
This all sounds like more of the Islamic bluster. They already know they went too far shooting one Russian plane. They got the facts of life carefully explained to them.
Honestly though, I think this wont go conventional. I look for Russia to undermine Erdogan by gift wrapping him a fun Kurdish insurgency, complete with truck bombs, IEDs, etc, all aimed at deposing Erdogan. Look for Russia to cultivate Turkish military officers with fabulous offers in exchange for another coup to restore secular Turkey.
Erdogan decided Assad had to go. I look for someone to get the same idea about Erdogan. He has destabilized the region, flooded the EU with moslem invaders, gone full islamist, created bad blood with Greece, flipped us the finger a few times, enraged Russia.
He is running out of friends.
The instant I read the headline I thought "Oh s**t!" and got a sick feeling in my gut.
They will have to go through the Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria to get there. That’s one toughish nut plus two NATO members to get to another NATO member. This is not a limited war anymore, this is WW3.
Russian Black Sea Fleet isn’t up to amphibious invasion on the required scale.
Invading through the Caucasus is a logistic nightmare and a long slog through mountains.
And the Turks won’t make it easy.
Yes, apparently Kerry has negotiated a cease fire. Of course, Syria was not a party, and the rebels and ISIS also didn’t show up. But they say its an amazing agreement.
Next he is getting Brazil, Micronesia, and Chile to come to an agreement over the dispute over rights to the fishing areas around Iceland.
“If the Russians attack Turkey, there can be no better way to unite the Turks behind that fool Erdogan. Every Turk will be a patriot again.”
And how do you suspect the average Russian will feel if Turkey attacks a Russian Air Force base unprovoked? Let me guess, the Turks will all be patriots and rally to the flag, but the Russians will all grumble and depose Putin and join the EU?
But no matter, there is no scenario where Turkey attacks Latakia. No way, no how. They won’t dare.
I think the Russians are perfectly capable of making mistakes just as bad as the Turks already have.
The Russian Med Fleet exists on Turkish sufferance. They have no bases. They are in range of hundreds of ASMs.
The S400 is not a magical thing. They are carried by heavy trucks over a limited number of roads easily interdicted by rockets and shells.
If the Turks do come over the border I see the Russians in Latakia withdrawing overland to Damascus, and probably evacuating from there to Iran via Iraq.
The Russians certainly could try to undermine Erdogan. But this is a tricky business and they could easily do something that would backfire. There’s no bunch on earth that could more easily unite the Turks than the Russians.
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