Posted on 02/10/2016 11:50:54 AM PST by SoConPubbie
Since the modern primary system kicked in back in 76, no Republican has won without taking Iowa or New Hampshire. Since Cruz took Iowa and Trump was expected to take New Hampshire, that put Rubio in a difficult position.
However, Rubio’s team had an answer for that: 3rd in IA, 2nd in NH and 1st in SC. It hadn’t been done that way on the Republican side, but that did seem like a plausible path to the nomination.
Unfortunately, Rubio’s 5th place finish in NH means both Jeb and Kasich will stay in and split the establishment vote. It also means Rubio will probably be relegated to 3rd place in SC.
Keep in mind that Trump is in first in almost every state and he has a relatively solid base of support. He can definitely be beaten, but that is unlikely to happen unless the race narrows down to two candidates.
Cruz’s win in IA, his deep pockets and his 2nd place national standing means he’s definitely in through March.
The establishment lane can’t consolidate soon enough to make an impact and even if it does, it’s doubtful that any of them could beat Trump 1-on-1 in a rabidly anti-establishment year.
So, either the vote will consolidate around Cruz who can beat Trump 1-on-1 or all these candidates who can’t win will bleed support from Cruz and practically guarantee a Trump win.
PS: It is possible that enough delegates might be bled off of Trump and Cruz to throw the race into a brokered convention, but once the GOP gets to that point it’s between a rock and a hard place. I’m not a supporter of Donald Trump, but if he has the most delegates, he DESERVES to be the nominee. If the establishment were to rob Trump of the nomination at the convention, the backlash would be so enormous that it would practically guarantee a loss to the Democrats no matter whom the GOP selected as a nominee.
So, if Donald Trump is your guy, vote for him, but if you want someone other than Trump, it seems likely that your only realistic option at this point is Ted Cruz.
Guess that means that those of us who sincerely are working for Cruz are not real Americans?
Interesting theory. As a Cruzer, I could come up with an analogous theory with Trump siphoning off the Conservative vote to knock Cruz off.
He doesnt have to kill anybody just to hang in there, which is all I am saying he will do.
As for Kasich, he is going down, deep down, to the 5% range, in SC.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3395393/posts
It wont buy him many votes, but it will keep him in the race.
Too many of the following stories around- too much smoke not to be any fire:
Alumni, roommates, law clerks, former staffers in the George W. Bush campaign and White House (and the president himself), members of Congress and others who have known Cruz  lots and lots of people  consider him socially awkward, nasty, dishonest, a blatant apple-polisher and all-around creepy guy. You can write off a few of these critics as jealous of his success, or liberal antagonists, but all of them? There is something badly amiss here. Cruz, who so obviously lacks emotional intelligence, cannot recognize it, but those closest to him surely must see that something is awry...
The difference is that Donald Trump is not owned by anyone. He made his money in real estate, not finance and stocks. The Bush-Clinton establishment has absolutely no hold over him, and he has the reputation of being absolutely ruthless with people who cross him.
Donald Trump really is a person after the type of Samson: Doesn’t drink, wild hair, chases women, will kill you or your friends if you treat him unfairly, and finally brought down the Temple of Dagon on the Philistines. (Judges 13-16)
The two of them have been rope-a-doping the rest of the field; the Donald is going to do well in the South, and is already second in Texas if memory serves. While Little Jebbie and Marco (Polo!) Rubio are still in the race, Florida will be Trump's. Carly's out now, Christie said he planned to be on that plane to SC, but he's going to drop out, who is he kidding? Carson spends so little on campaigning, he may wind up trying to stay in by suspending active campaigning, but he's peaked, and that was a few months ago. Kasich did well in a liberal NE state, what a surprise, and his success there diluted any chance for the rest of the not-too-conservative candidates.
BTTT
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