Posted on 02/02/2016 5:53:55 AM PST by Rockitz
In the hours before the Iowa caucuses opened, supporters of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) began hinting that the Florida senator would perform better than expected — and better than the latest polls were showing. The Des Moines Register Poll released right before the Iowa caucus showed Rubio at 17 percent, and support was fading in the closing days before the caucus.
Rubio’s team correctly predicted a third place win for their candidate. Few predicted, however, that he would finish one point behind the frontrunner Donald Trump, who had 31 percent in the latest poll but only 24 percent in the caucus results.
The final number for Rubio (with 99 percent of the vote tallied) was 23 percent. According to Rubio advisor Todd Harris, the campaign “blew past†their vote goals early in the night.
Rubio’s performance in Iowa can partially be attributed to Harris, a former senior strategist and media consultant for Iowa Senator Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) for her win in the 2014 Senate race.
Rubio won first place in five counties in Iowa — major population centers with thousands of votes.
He won Dallas, Polk, and Story counties near the Des Moines area, as well as Johnson county in Iowa City and Scott County, which includes the city of Davenport.
Those were all counties won by Mitt Romney in 2012 versus Rick Santorum, but Romney won 16 of the state’s 99 counties.
More important is that in a three way race, the delegates in the state will be split fairly evenly.
The numbers that matter tonight: 8-7-7 Delegate allotment tonight for 3 top vote getters, Rubio’s campaign manager Terry Sullivan noted after Cruz was declared the winner.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Won’t happen.
All the money and people pulling for Bush, Christie, Kasich, et al. will now move to Rubio. The USCoC will not be denied its cheap labor.
Not really. Not enough to have a positive effect for Rubio.
This isn’t rocket science folks.
Either Trump and Cruz knock off the stupid infantile attacks on each other, or they hand the nomination to Rubio.
Ted Cruz = 8 delegates/ 2472
Marco Rubio = 7
Donald Trump = 7
Ben Carson = 3
Jeb Bush = 1
Rand Paul = 1
Chris Christie = 0
Carly Fiorina = 0
Jim Gilmore = 0
Mike Huckabee = 0
John Kasich = 0
Rick Santorum = 0
The good news: Bush only got 1 delegate. Kasich got zero.
The bad news: The RNC get 3 delegates, that are NOT included in the tally above, and the RNC gets to vote however it wishes at the convention.
The RNC’s favorites (Bush and Kasich) really performed badly. The back-up candidate for the RNC is Rubio. In essence, Rubio will get those 3 RNC delegates.
Rubio wins Iowa with 10 delegates.
I think that crossover voters is a partial explanation for Rube-o’s performance, but the vast majority of libs believe that their two messiahs are inevitably going to win. I’d say a lot more of his performance has to do with outright voter fabrication; someone in Iowa should look over the number of Rubio voters who are deceased, illegals, or children.
Democrats/communists are pragmatists. Won’t support a candidate that they don’t think can win. They’ve picked Hillary.
This needs to be said far more often than it is.
Exactly. And unfortunately, if the other establishment candidates drop out quickly, Rubio will be the nominee regardless of what Trump or Cruz say since the anti-establishment vote will be split between Trump and Cruz.
As I said on another thread, I hope Jeb stays in the race until the bitter end to siphon enough votes away from Rubio. Even then, if neither Trump nor Cruz get a clear majority, we'll get a brokered convention that will favor an establishment candidate.
I think you’re right. And to be honest, suburban women is a demographic we have to win.
Rationality instead of blind worship for their “holy” candidate would indicate a rather more mundane explanation for last night
According to polling a plurality of Iowa voters are either undecided or soft in their support for any candidate.
Religious voters play a significant role in Iowa politics.They faithfully show up on Caucus night.
Religious voters have demonstrated in the past a distaste for candidate who engage in the bare knuckle politics Cruz/Trump have recently engaged in.
Historically polling in Iowa has been rather inaccurate. Iowa almost always produces a surprise result.
Recent polling in Iowa had been showing strong movement to Rubio. T
Rubio has gone full out of for the religious votes. His ads spend a lot of time with him talking about his religious faith. His stump speech spend a lot of time on his faith. Rubio is a good con-man. Like most people withou any core principals, his is good at selling what ever he is talking about at any one time.
Team Cruz switched from targeting Trump to going after Rubio on Friday which inidcates their internal polling was showing the movment to Rubio.
Trump bet the farm on his “new style” politics overcoming the standard ground game SOP of Iowa politics. Rubio and Cruz spent a great deal of time and money following the politics as usual play book in Iowa. Turn out Rubio/Cruz were right and Trump wrong.
seems that way. wife has some suburban women friends who seem to be enamored with the magic cuban. they like the way that he looks....
These must be the same suburban women who gushed over Bill Clinton 20-24 years ago. Rubio seems to be a sleazy manipulator and opportunist in the mold of Clinton - someone with no core convictions or values but with the right looks, charisma, and political skills necessary to manipulate gullible people.
If Rubio gets the nomination I’ll be sitting this election out. He would be just as bad as Hilary
OK, Cruz has one more delegate than either Trump or Rubio but that could change as soon as next Tuesday night.
I don't mind Cruz or Trump as nominee but Marco Rubio is way too close.
Rubio’s speech last night was very smooth, but CNN likes him too much.
“This isn’t rocket science folks.
Either Trump and Cruz knock off the stupid infantile attacks on each other, or they hand the nomination to Rubio.”
Amen.
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