Posted on 01/29/2016 10:43:08 PM PST by drewh
Even before Thursday night's Fox News debate, there was talk that Cruz might have "peaked too early" in Iowa. Cruz narrowly led the Donald in the typically very accurate and influential Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll released on January 13.
But since then the polling has shown slippage for Cruz, generally attributed to a combo attack from Trump on Cruz's Canadian birth and from the Branstad family (Terry, the six-term governor, and son Eric, the ethanol lobbyist) on his opposition to special treatment of the corn-based alternative fuel by the federal government. Even more ominously, third-place candidate Marco Rubio, the favorite of both the Republican Establishment and of many conservative Evangelical leaders, was beginning to creep up on Cruz in Iowa polls amid a major spending spree on TV ads by the Floridian.
Then came Thursday night's debates, where Cruz was almost universally deemed the worst performer and perhaps (depending on your assessment of the impact of Trump's absence) the big loser. Two particularly damaging moments were his trapped look when confronted with videos of his past statements seeming to support legalization of undocumented immigrants, and a shot of Terry Branstad chortling as Cruz struggled to explain his position on ethanol. And it didn't help the nerves of Team Cruz that Frank Luntz's post-debate focus-group report for Fox News was practically a Rubio rally
If the debate does move caucusgoers, it may not be reflected in late polls (e.g., the final Register-Bloomberg poll that will be released Saturday night) that were in the field before the event. More likely, the caucuses will remain a test of the turnout strategies of Trump, with his effort to expand participation deep into marginal voting segments, and Cruz, with his state-of-the-art organization focused on the most likely caucusgoers.
If Cruz wins, the debate stumble will be forgotten instantly. If he finishes second, and particularly a weak second, chins will be stroked and lost opportunities will be weighed. And if he somehow finishes behind Rubio, his candidacy is in very big trouble. Any way you look at it, it's been a long, strange trip for a freshman U.S. senator who would finish dead last in a poll of his colleagues.
“I love how Freeping Trumpeteers... [snip] Weâre not going to win the presidency when we shoot down our own.”
Maybe you should listen to your own words, then, and stop mocking Trump supporters since the polls show that he is almost certainly going to be our party’s candidate.
Yes. Beck was the kiss of death.
Luntz used to work for Rubio. No bias there.
I think Cruz would support Trump over Rubio.
If he supports Rubio, then all I had admired about Cruz was wrong and he was just a GOPe all along.
He has had bad help in marketing, advertising.
I agree. He and Trump were pretty cordial and I believe Cruz was the last one that Trump took to the woodshed.
I think Cruz would accept Trump’s “It’s only business” before a truce with the GOPe/CoC/RNC candidate.
You people are believing the ridiculous mainstream media’s last attempt to bail out Trump.
No-one watched Trump’s sick attempt to use veterans as a campaign prop; Fox’s debate was viewership was unharmed. And just watch the new polling data: Trust me, the IBD/TIPP poll was no outlier. Trump’s numbers are going down nationally.
Just listen to talk radio. People like Levin, Rush, et al. aren’t stupid. If Trump is the nominee, they’ll have created a real problem for themselves. There’s a reason they’re ratcheting up the criticisms of Trump’s liberalism, and it sure as Hell isn’t that they’re trying to dispirit the conservative base in November. They’re feeling increasingly safe because they know they won’t have to eat their words.
At first, Cruz looked good....even prez material ...until he was caught w/ his pants down. Now he looks like a neighborhood pest you can/t get rid of.
<><> I told Iowa voters I didn't have health insurance until the media found out I did have it.
<><> I didn't know I was a Canadian citizen when I ran for the Senate until the media exposed it.
<><> I told trusting Texas voters wifey and I were liquidating family assets so I could get into the Senate.
<><> I didnt know I was supposed to tell the FEC I borrowed over a million from my Wall Street margin accounts to fund my campaign.
<><> I told Mark Levin the borrowed funds were used for campaign ads....but I didn't report this as required.
<><> And so on and so forth, ad infinitum, ad nauseaum.
If things that some candidates said from the 1990s are brought up today, I guarantee the Cruz shaming letter will not be forgotten. If that letter was sent with his knowledge and ok, it was a very bad decision. If it was a campaign decision, Ted doesn’t pick good people. He can recover from that only by publicly acknowledging the poor taste/decision of the mailing and firing the manager of whoever made that decision, and move on....quickly. Bad news does not get better with age.
No, his fall started two debates ago with the NY Values comment. He did not explain it well enough and Trump turned it around on him right there on stage in front of millions of people. We knew what Cruz meant, but many didn’t. That started the downfall. It accelerated with Palin, Beck, Barnstad, etc.
What mojo?
The process (which I despise) does tend to reveal weaknesses under extreme pressure.
I was hopeful that Cruz would emerge more polished and able to accept an Associate Justice position in the first Trump administration, ideally replacing Ginsburg.
Now? I think he’s going back to Texas. And, after the three examples of “Obama”, Cruz, and Rubio, I hope we can retire the idea that getting elected to the Senate in order to start running for President is somehow evidence of qualifications for the job.
Yes, it’s too bad. I kinda think his heart’s in the right place, but once he started rolling out the Christian loons, I knew he was not serious about winning.
This is why Cruz didn’t step out sooner, drafted Trump. Once you get in the spotlight as #1 even briefly, people start to see who you really are.
you’re so sharp that you dont now it’s been done before please dont post to me
Wasn’t Luntz on the Rubio payroll for polling?
The media is driven by the objective of seeing a beatable Republican get the nomination. Nothing can be taken at face value.
Interesting (and fair I think) assessment..... NY Mag is good on politics, they sort of keep it tabloid and real.
I missed that story. What did Glenn Beck do, go off his meds and endorse Cruz while sitting naked atop a flagpole?
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