Posted on 01/28/2016 7:47:24 PM PST by GilGil
The spread between the yield on corporate bonds and that on treasuries passed the 2% mark yesterday for the first time in over three years yesterday.
In the chart above I’ve annotated with red vertical lines the prior two occasions when spreads widened to this degree for the first time in at least two years. Notice that each of the two prior occurrences led to painful bear markets and recessions.
Now this indicator alone isn’t sufficient evidence that another painful bear market and concomitant recession are on their way. However, when you pair it with the all the other data out there, it’s confirmation of the growing probability of both.
(Excerpt) Read more at thefelderreport.com ...
placeholding for later
I see no recession on the horizon. The emerging markets look good. This will be our saving grace!
You are much more optimistic than I am. Right now all the data is bad. Makes no difference to me . I make money regardless of what happens but not good for country.
International has been awful for years compared to the US market. EEM was down 15% last year. What emerging fund are you talking about?
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