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January 26, 2016 - Trump, Cruz Go Down To The Wire In Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rubio A Distant Third As Others All But Disappear


PDF format Additional Trend Information The Iowa Republican Caucus is a two-man race going down to the wire with Donald Trump at 31 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 29 percent among likely Republican Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is at 13 percent, with no other candidate above 7 percent.
This is virtually unchanged from results of a January 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 31 percent, with 29 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Rubio.
Today, 2 percent are undecided and 39 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 24 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, with 24 percent who would not support former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Only 12 percent say 'no way' to Cruz.
"Despite Sarah Palin's endorsement of Donald Trump and Gov. Terry Branstad's criticism of Sen. Ted Cruz, and despite - or because of - Sen. Cruz' 'New York values' comments, the Iowa Republican Caucus remains too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"One week before the caucuses gather, the question is which candidate has the best field organization. If the events of the last two weeks haven't moved the needle, one wonders what would change it in the next six days."
"It all comes down to turnout. And with four in 10 likely caucus participants saying they still might change their mind, this is an especially volatile race," Brown added.
"One thing is increasingly evident, the conservative wing of the Republican party, at least in Iowa, is carrying the day," Brown added.
Cruz is taking the lion's share of the right wing among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with Trump taking a good chunk and only a few scraps for the rest of the pack.
Cruz leads Trump:
50 - 34 percent among self-professed Tea Party members; 39 - 27 percent among white, born-again Evangelical Christians; 49 - 29 percent among voters describing themselves as "very conservative."
Trump leads Cruz:
29 - 21 percent among self-identified "somewhat conservative" voters; 37 - 6 percent among voters claiming to be "moderate" or "liberal."
The economy and jobs is the most important issue in deciding their vote, 27 percent of likely Republican Caucus participants say, with 18 percent listing terrorism, 11 percent citing foreign policy and 10 percent pointing to the federal deficit.
From January 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 651 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 4% 1% 3% 1% 6% 7% 2% 7% 5% 3% Carson 7 6 7 6 10 4 4 11 8 6 Christie 3 - - 1 3 6 2 4 3 2 Cruz 29 50 39 49 21 6 32 25 24 32 Fiorina 1 1 1 - 2 2 1 1 1 1 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Huckabee 2 1 4 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 Kasich 1 - - - 2 3 2 - 3 1 Paul 5 3 3 4 3 10 6 4 5 5 Rubio 13 4 12 5 19 19 12 15 20 10 Santorum - - 1 1 - - - 1 - 1 Trump 31 34 27 29 29 37 36 25 28 34 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 1 3 CAUCUS ATTEND Q4 ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... First Previous <50K 50-100 >100K 18-44 45-64 65+ Caucus Caucus Bush 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 9% 2% 5% Carson 7 7 5 7 6 10 6 7 Christie 2 3 4 1 5 1 2 3 Cruz 25 38 23 29 34 19 25 31 Fiorina - 2 2 - 2 2 - 2 Gilmore - - - - - - - - Huckabee 3 1 3 3 1 4 3 2 Kasich 3 - 1 2 1 1 - 2 Paul 8 3 5 8 4 1 4 6 Rubio 8 19 16 15 12 15 15 12 Santorum 1 - - - - 3 1 - Trump 37 22 36 29 32 32 38 28 DK/NA 3 - 2 3 1 3 4 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q5 MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC Q6 Econ/ Terro- Foreign Shares Strong Honest/ Jobs rism Policy Values Leader Trustwthy Bush 3% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% Carson 3 10 6 8 6 12 Christie 6 2 1 - 5 1 Cruz 19 31 24 45 12 38 Fiorina 1 1 2 - 2 3 Gilmore - - - - - - Huckabee 2 - 2 4 2 1 Kasich 3 - 3 1 2 1 Paul 8 1 4 4 5 7 Rubio 20 17 16 13 12 10 Santorum - 2 - - - 1 Trump 33 28 37 19 49 21 DK/NA - 1 1 2 - 4
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the caucus?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS...... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Cruz Trump Made up 59% 69% 69% Might change 39 30 29 DK/NA 1 1 2
2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 24% 44% 26% 31% 16% 21% 25% 22% 23% 24% Carson 6 6 2 6 5 6 7 5 5 7 Christie 14 19 15 18 8 14 15 12 14 14 Cruz 12 4 9 7 9 26 13 12 18 10 Fiorina 10 9 7 9 7 12 9 10 12 9 Gilmore 9 11 6 10 7 8 9 9 9 9 Huckabee 9 9 6 7 10 12 10 9 9 10 Kasich 15 24 15 19 10 12 15 15 14 15 Paul 10 9 8 8 9 12 10 10 11 9 Rubio 10 14 6 9 7 13 11 8 8 11 Santorum 9 9 6 7 12 10 9 10 9 9 Trump 24 22 26 20 24 33 18 33 31 21 No/No one 33 31 36 31 43 23 33 32 31 34 DK/NA 6 6 7 8 3 6 8 4 3 7 ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... <50K 50-100 >100K 18-44 45-64 65+ Bush 27% 22% 19% 25% 27% 18% Carson 8 4 7 6 6 8 Christie 15 13 12 13 15 13 Cruz 9 11 19 10 14 17 Fiorina 10 8 10 9 9 12 Gilmore 9 9 8 7 8 11 Huckabee 10 8 11 6 12 11 Kasich 12 17 14 13 18 13 Paul 11 8 11 6 10 15 Rubio 15 6 6 11 10 9 Santorum 9 10 9 8 10 11 Trump 22 30 19 23 24 26 No/No one 31 30 39 34 32 30 DK/NA 8 8 2 4 6 11
4. Have you attended any previous Iowa caucuses, or will this be your first caucus?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Attended previous 67% 74% 72% 71% 62% 69% 64% 72% 77% 62% First caucus 33 26 28 29 38 31 36 28 23 38 DK/NA - - - - - - - - - - ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... <50K 50-100 >100K 18-44 45-64 65+ Attended previous 65% 66% 70% 53% 76% 77% First caucus 35 34 30 47 24 23 DK/NA - - - - - -
5. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, taxes, or gun policy?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Economy and jobs 27% 20% 19% 19% 26% 43% 28% 25% 34% 23% Terrorism 18 19 21 19 20 14 13 25 16 20 Immigration 9 13 10 11 6 12 10 8 6 11 Federal deficit 10 14 12 10 11 8 11 8 12 8 Health care 2 - 3 1 4 3 1 4 2 2 Foreign policy 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 12 15 9 Climate change - - - - - 1 - - - - Race relations - - - - - - - - - - Abortion 5 5 8 8 3 1 4 6 3 6 Taxes 5 4 5 5 6 3 6 2 4 5 Gun policy 7 7 5 8 10 2 9 3 4 8 DK/NA 6 7 4 8 4 5 7 5 3 8 ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... <50K 50-100 >100K 18-44 45-64 65+ Economy and jobs 26% 26% 33% 30% 29% 18% Terrorism 12 26 15 12 22 24 Immigration 14 5 8 7 8 15 Federal deficit 9 10 8 10 11 6 Health care 3 3 1 3 1 3 Foreign policy 10 10 15 10 13 12 Climate change - - - - - 1 Race relations - - - - - - Abortion 4 6 3 5 5 6 Taxes 5 2 7 6 4 3 Gun policy 7 6 7 13 3 3 DK/NA 9 6 4 4 5 10
6. Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning?
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Shares values 26% 38% 31% 35% 24% 13% 26% 26% 25% 26% Cares needs/problems 9 7 7 6 7 18 9 9 3 12 Strong leadership 26 17 19 21 27 31 26 25 31 22 Honest/trustworthy 24 24 25 22 28 18 23 24 21 25 Right experience 6 4 8 5 4 11 6 6 6 7 Best chance/winning 7 5 7 6 9 7 7 8 11 5 DK/NA 3 6 3 4 1 2 3 2 2 3 ANNUAL HSHLD INCOME AGE IN YRS....... <50K 50-100 >100K 18-44 45-64 65+ Shares values 18% 34% 25% 25% 31% 19% Cares needs/problems 13 10 5 14 5 10 Strong leadership 28 17 29 25 26 25 Honest/trustworthy 27 23 21 25 20 30 Right experience 5 7 6 5 7 6 Best chance/winning 6 7 10 4 8 7 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 3 3
source: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2318