Posted on 01/26/2016 5:01:56 AM PST by RoosterRedux
The betting is increasingly off Ted Cruz.
Cruz, the Texas Republican senator who had led in prediction markets of the Iowa caucuses about a month ago, is cratering in those same markets with a week to go until the Hawkeye State's first-in-the-nation Feb. 1 contests. And it's not just in Iowa: Cruz's chances of winning the GOP nomination are tanking, according to prediction-market aggregator PredictWise.com.
Riding high at No. 1 in Iowa and for the nomination is Donald Trump, who's been aggressively pounding Cruz over his birth in Canada. For the GOP nomination, Trump is at 47% as of Monday on PredictWise; his nearest competitor, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, is at 30%. Cruz draws 10%. In late December, Cruz was up at 27% to get the GOP's nod.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
GO TRUMP!
We simply CANNOT TALK ABOUT TED’S ELIGIABILITY!!!
(If we did—how would we avoid noticing the guy who’s in office???)
From my personal walk around and listen poll of Iowans,
I say Trump easily, distant second too close to call -
either Cruz or Rubio
I’m still predicting a Rubio surprise 2nd by a hair.
The GOPe wants a fresh face with some momentum going into NH.
Same guess as mine - Rubio is such a nice looking boy and so easy to listen to is what I hear from the older than me crowd.
To be fair to Cruz, Rubio’s parents both said they were hoping to return to Cuba, and that is why they did not have US citizenship at the time of his birth.
My guess is that might have raised a question in colonial America. The 14th amendment makes it appear that Rubio is qualified, but NBC status was viewed differently by the Founders.
That wouldn't hurt Trump, but it would destroy Cruz.
just speculating, based on polls all along. Rubio never goes away.
When you shrink the number, it shifts clearly to the typical Iowa caucus voter, which tends to be on the evangelical side, which as a whole, are clearly for Cruz.
If I'm wrong, I'll eat a handful of raisins. And I hate raisins.
Rubio is such a nice looking boy and so easy to listen to is what I hear from the older than me crowd....
And literate too.
I can just see him in a picture next to Putin. Will look like Sherman of Mr. Peabody/Sherman Cartoons.
Like the ones of Obama hanging curtains or bike with helmet and Putin riding a horse.
Rubio never had in his hand Cuban citizenship. He was born here. I don’t think that settles anything, but it makes Rubio’s situation very different from Cruz’s.
“But Cruz is going to win Iowa by 6 or 7%. The polls are garbage in their design for a caucus”
If polls are not reliable, then gut feelings aren’t any better.
“The models they are using are predicting a 50% bigger turnout than the biggest ever. Ain’t happnin’.”
Why? Because....feelings?
Pollster Pat Cadell made a prediction based on turnout. Granted the turnout models are vastly over-estimating turnout. However, Cadell’s prediction was based on a normal model. He said that a standard turnout of 120,000 was in favor of Cruz, but that 140,000 or higher will be a Trump victory.
Bet 33 cents on Cruz to win a dollar. You have to bet twice that to win a dollar betting on Trump.
The graph of odds over time is interesting. Cruz has a pronounced peak (similar to the one that appears in election polls), that is now headed south.
Debate this week will be interesting. Nearly all attention will be on Trump, Cruz and Rubio - attention by the moderators and from the other debate participants. Cruz is going to have a tough time finding friends in that bunch, unless he turns his energy toward slamming the press.
The 14th amendment protects Rubio, Jindal, and Obama. They were infants born in the US.
However, IF the question is, “Would George Washington have considered them natural born citizens?”, then we have an entirely different set of facts that we must apply.
My sense is that GW would not have accepted the NBC status of Jindal and Obama, but that he possibly would have accepted Rubio’s.
Palin endorses Trump; Trumps rises in the polls.
Beck endorses Cruz; Cruz drops in the polls.
Palin is a shrill washed up has been, according to the Beltway Punditry.
Hmmmmmmm.
He did in the same way that Cruz held US and Cuban citizenship in his. We could argue over whether or not one has to have the claim adjudicated in order to "have citizenship," but the claim is a valid claim, and if correctly adjudicated in a relevant national court, at birth, Rubio is as much Cuban as Cruz is American.
——Palin is a shrill washed up has been,-—
as a contender, she was
as a spokesman for American ideals, she is
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