There Are Three New Polls In Iowa. Who's Winning? [CNN/ORC outlier? Cruz gains in poll]

Daily Wire ^ | January 21, 2016 | By: Aaron Bandler

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Three new Iowa polls were released on Thursday, and the polls show that real estate mogul Donald Trump has the edge over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.).

A CNN/ORC poll shows Trump with a double-digit lead over Cruz:

However, this does not necessarily guarantee a win for Trump:

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Phil Kerpen ✔ @kerpen

Note this has always been Trump's best Iowa poll and Cruz has GAINED on him since last month. 3:14 PM - 21 Jan 2016

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This is accurate, as the previous CNN/ORC poll in Iowa had Trump at 33 percent and Cruz at 20 percent. The poll also may not accurately reflect turnout:

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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

A lot of differences in these polls are based on how tightly polls are screening voters. Looser screens help Bernie & Trump.

@NateSilver538

For instance, the CNN poll implies a turnout of about 320K in the Iowa GOP caucus, versus ~120K in 2012. 3:19 PM - 21 Jan 2016

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That would explain why the margin of error is at +/-6 percent.

When the turnout is measured at 2012 levels, Cruz leads at 30 percent and Trump is second at 28 percent.

The CNN poll may then be an outlier, as a Loras College poll shows Trump with a one-point lead over Cruz:

Trump: 26 percent
Cruz: 25 percent
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.): 13 percent
Dr. Ben Carson: 8 percent
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R): 6 percent
Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R): 4 percent
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R): 3 percent
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R): 3 percent
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.): 3 percent
Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina: 2 percent
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.): 1 percent

However, a KBUR poll shows Cruz with a two-point lead over Trump:

Cruz: 27 percent
Trump: 25 percent
Carson: 11 percent
Rubio: 9 percent
Bush: 7 percent
Christie: 4 percent
Huckabee: 4 percent
Paul: 3 percent
Kasich: 3 percent
Fiorina: 3 percent
Santorum: 1 percent

Radio host Steve Deace, who has endorsed Cruz and is well-versed with the political scene in Iowa, explained on Twitter that the current polls likely understate Cruz's support:

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Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShow

Trump probably needs to be at least five points ahead to withstand Cruz organizational advantage. 10:35 AM - 21 Jan 2016

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Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShow

Final CNN poll of Iowa in 2008 had Hillary winning by two. She finished third. 10:38 AM - 21 Jan 2016

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Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShow

Final CNN poll of Iowa 2008 had Romney winning by 3. He lost by 9. 10:39 AM - 21 Jan 2016

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[Ymani Cricket]

Remember this is a caucus state, so where does the support for those single digit candidates go to after they don’t have enough votes to register a delegate? Trump after all his bashing? I doubt it.

This is a good point. My state used to be a caucus state. I have seen what happens at caucuses. Sudden realignments - backroom deals, etc. And at the state conventions then it gets really strange. Anything can happen. But the ones polling the lowest are NOT going to be the ones getting all the sudden support. Very unlikely. More likely that their delegates will get behind the obvious front runners.

In '96 we actually had a fight over the microphone when the Caucus Chairmanship did not go the way of the establishment candidate. They didn't want to follow the rules suddenly (Robert's Rules of Order) It was quite a fiasco. Iowa will be very interesting. The best deal maker wins. As much as I like much about Cruz, he isn't much of a deal maker or coalition builder. You gotta have coalitions. period.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

THIS IS YOUR ECPC POLL's methodology:

"The ECPS poll was conducted from Monday, January 18 at 6pm through Wednesday evening January 20. The polling sample was a random selection of registered voters purchased through Aristotle Inc. Likely primary voters were classified through a screening question. For non-completes with a working residential phone line, at least five callbacks were attempted. The Democratic and GOP residential primaries consisted of 258 and 271 adult registered likely primary voters in Iowa, with a margin of error of +/-6.1% and +/-5.9%, respectively,at a 95 percent confidence level, was used for the additional statewide questions. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response system and weighted based on 2012 General Election voting to reflect likely voter populations in Iowa. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com For further information or questions about methodology, contact Henry Krause, ECPS polling director, at henry_krause@emerson.edu

[flaglady47]

No matter what you say or do,
Twill soon be President Trump to you.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

I know you want to believe that but no votes have been cast.

: )

[LS]

You really should go into the textile business for all the spinning you do.

Here are very simple facts: the more Cruz “gains” the further behind he gets.

*Since the debate, 12-—count em, 12-—IA polls have come out. The record? Trump leads in 9, Cruz in 2. One is a tie. It is quite clear to any but a rabid partisan that Cruz is slipping, and badly, in his one and only hope.

*Crus now trails on the RCP IA avg. by 2.6.

*Deace and Kerpen cleverly avoid mentioning the OTHER 10-point Trump poll yesterday, Emerson College. Turnout isn’t a factor in that one and Trump leads in that by . . . Wait for it. . . 5 points AFTER the margin of error.

*Had RCP included Emerson in its average, that rises to about 4-5 points. Uh oh.

*So even IF Keroen’s questionable math is accurate and IF one buys that Cruzers mysteriously turn out at much higher rates than Trump’s people, Trump is still already right at the 5% lead Kerpen says he needs.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

You cherry pick.

I put it out there and link.

: )

[LS]

I just addressed the “meat and potatoes” of the article. Result: Cruz stew.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

You picked the potatoes you liked (the meat....?....you must be a vegetarian).

: )

[reviled downesdad]

This is a caucus. Ground game matters. Enthusiam matters.

Evangelicals will turn out and crawl over broken glass to caucus for Cruz this time.

Just like they did for Santorum in 2012.

Cruz will win Iowa. Game on from there.

[LS]

You are getting tedious and slipping into delusion. I gave you a DETAILED critique involving not one, not two, but TWELVE polls post-debate and Cruz is losin nine. But I didn't include this tidbit because I knew you would be obtuse:

In the only polls where Cruz leads he is within the margin of error.

. So it is entirely possible---and a good statistician, unlike Kerpen---would conclude that based on the PREPONDERANCE of polls, with Trump OUTSIDE the MOE in two polls, it is more likely that even the two Cruz "leads" aren't very reliable. But get out your little spinning Jenny.

[LS]

Still dodging the “meat and potatoes” of MY specifics I see. Game, set, match.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

: )

[Cincinatus' Wife]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3410858/As-Trump-woos-primary-voters-New-York-records-indicate-NEVER-voted-Republican-presidential-primary.html

[Cboldt]

I’ve seen that. It’s a change of subject from the old saw that “figures lie and liars figure,”

[Cincinatus' Wife]

I quoted it, you expanded on it. What more was there to say?

[Cboldt]

-- What more was there to say? --

Nothing. I am puzzled why you posted that link, in response to the unremarkable proposition that the "liars figure" meme is an equal opportunity device. But it's your thread, and you can expand and contract it as you see fit.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

It struck me, Trump is working 24/7 to get voters to vote in the primaries - for him, yet he didn’t feel voting in a primary was important enough for him to participate in.

?

[Fresh Wind]

For non-completes with a working residential phone line, at least five callbacks were attempted.

That's why I have a call blocker on my phone line.

[Cboldt]

Got it. Yes, on that he is a hypocrite, for sure. But, it's a simple fact that primaries are decided by a small fraction of the eligible electorate. I think it is less than 10%, aggregate. Voter turnout data

If I'm reading that right, in the 2012 primary, Iowa at 6.5%, NH at 31.1%, SC at 17.6%, FL at 12.8%. New York participation was 1.4%.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

We’ll know before long how things are going to unfold.