Posted on 01/22/2016 1:06:33 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Three new Iowa polls were released on Thursday, and the polls show that real estate mogul Donald Trump has the edge over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.).
A CNN/ORC poll shows Trump with a double-digit lead over Cruz:
However, this does not necessarily guarantee a win for Trump:
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Phil Kerpen ✔ @kerpen
Note this has always been Trump's best Iowa poll and Cruz has GAINED on him since last month. 3:14 PM - 21 Jan 2016
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This is accurate, as the previous CNN/ORC poll in Iowa had Trump at 33 percent and Cruz at 20 percent. The poll also may not accurately reflect turnout:
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
A lot of differences in these polls are based on how tightly polls are screening voters. Looser screens help Bernie & Trump.
@NateSilver538
For instance, the CNN poll implies a turnout of about 320K in the Iowa GOP caucus, versus ~120K in 2012. 3:19 PM - 21 Jan 2016
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That would explain why the margin of error is at +/-6 percent.
When the turnout is measured at 2012 levels, Cruz leads at 30 percent and Trump is second at 28 percent.
The CNN poll may then be an outlier, as a Loras College poll shows Trump with a one-point lead over Cruz:
Trump: 26 percent
Cruz: 25 percent
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.): 13 percent
Dr. Ben Carson: 8 percent
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R): 6 percent
Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R): 4 percent
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R): 3 percent
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R): 3 percent
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.): 3 percent
Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina: 2 percent
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.): 1 percent
However, a KBUR poll shows Cruz with a two-point lead over Trump:
Cruz: 27 percent
Trump: 25 percent
Carson: 11 percent
Rubio: 9 percent
Bush: 7 percent
Christie: 4 percent
Huckabee: 4 percent
Paul: 3 percent
Kasich: 3 percent
Fiorina: 3 percent
Santorum: 1 percent
Radio host Steve Deace, who has endorsed Cruz and is well-versed with the political scene in Iowa, explained on Twitter that the current polls likely understate Cruz's support:
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Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShow
Trump probably needs to be at least five points ahead to withstand Cruz organizational advantage. 10:35 AM - 21 Jan 2016
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Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShow
Final CNN poll of Iowa in 2008 had Hillary winning by two. She finished third. 10:38 AM - 21 Jan 2016
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Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShow
Final CNN poll of Iowa 2008 had Romney winning by 3. He lost by 9. 10:39 AM - 21 Jan 2016
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"....The sample includes 266 who were likely to participate in the Republican presidential caucus and 280 who were likely to participate in the Democratic presidential caucus....."
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[Below is the headline for "HEADLINE NEWS" but buried at the bottom]:
Trump grabs double-digit lead in Iowa pol
"............The CNN/ORC poll of 266 likely GOP caucus-goers was conducted Jan. 15-20 via telephones with a margin of error of 6 percentage points.
Three recent polls in the state have shown more malleability in the race between the two front-runners, with one finding Cruz with a 2-point edge and two others putting Trump up by either 1 point or 6 points.
Nearly half of respondents in the latest CNN/ORC poll, 49 percent, said they have "definitely decided" on a candidate, while 22 percent are leaning toward one and 28 percent are undecided."
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It's interesting in the Dec 2015 CBB/ORC poll the Republican sample was 522.
Steve Deace, that effeminate whiny beta-male, first told with all seriousness that Falwell would endorse Trump on that Tuesday night but that he probably was having "second thoughts" and would abandon Trump. Then Deace told us that "little birdies" told him it was definitely Falwell. Then Deace started to accept that it was Palin who would endorse, and immediately began retweeting people who explained that Palin was actually a member of the establishment all this time.
Steve Deace is an irrational Cruzbot incapable of any analysis. He's as bad as some Freepers.
You can’t address the meat and potatoes of the polls so you go off on Deace.
Deace is hoping for regular voter turnout from boring old 2012, when only Saint Rick was running and could barely beat boring Mitt Romney. Steve Deace is irrational if he thinks low voter turnout will rescue Rafael Cruz.
I'm sure you wish it to be.
Cruz has declined in three of the past four Iowa polls. You tell me which is the outlier.
Hi “I never campaigned for Scott Walker” poster:
Another “fingers in my ears, hands over my eyes, yet doing a lot of spinning to distract from the facts” comment.
It’s pretty likely that Cruz will be finished after Iowa one way or the other.
Remember this is a caucus state, so where does the support for those single digit candidates go to after they don’t have enough votes to register a delegate? Trump after all his bashing? I doubt it.
Ping
Thank you!
As my mother used to tell me, “Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure.”
That’s a laughable assertion.
Nice try.
The constant bashing and lack of class by the hardcore trumpees still amazes me. Like their leader they think this makes them “great”? Superior to any who doesn’t support their guy? Able to admit a single fault of donnie? No. Will trash Cruz for the most ridiculous petty things? Always.
Appreciate the poll info. Had not seen it.
CNN
He has no realistic path to the nomination at this point and you know it.
"....[Larry] KING: There are a lot of great topics. One of them is Barack Obama. In fact, the list at the back of the book on the topics, the number one is, "Barack Obama's election ushers in a different world."
How do you assess him?
[Donald] TRUMP: Well, I really like him. I think that he's working very hard. He's trying to rebuild our reputation throughout the world. I mean, we really have lost a lot of reputation in the world. The previous administration was a total disaster, a total catastrophe.
And, you know, the world looks at us differently than they used to. And I think he's trying to restore our reputation within the world. And he was handed a pretty bad deck of cards. I mean, he was given a pretty tough situation.
And I'm not saying I agree with everything he's doing. I do agree with what they're doing with the banks. Whether they FUND THEM or NATIONALIZE them, it doesn't matter, but you have to keep the banks going.".....CNN Transcript of interview
They left out a 4th new Iowa poll...with Trump surging to a 10 point lead. Oops.
“EYES ON IOWA: TRUMP AND CLINTON SURGE 10 DAYS BEFORE THE CAUCUS. CRUZ AND SANDERS FALTERING
In a new, statewide Iowa poll, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have surged to 9 and 10 point leads in Iowa with just 10 days before the first in the nation voting begins. Clinton receives 52% of the vote and Sanders at 43%. Trump leads his Republican rivals with 33%, followed by Ted Cruz at 23%, Marco Rubio (14%), and Ben Carson (9%) round out the top four with the rest of field under 6%; Rick Santorum — who won the 2012 Iowa GOP Caucus with 25% of the vote — has less than 1% of Iowans this time around, and Mike Huckabee who won the 2008 Iowa Caucus is at 2%.”
How is Clinton surging???
That axe swings in all directions.
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