Donald Trump is poised for the strongest primary performance in modern history

The Week ^ | Noah Millman

[RoosterRedux]

For months, the press and the Republican establishment alike have been expecting the Trump bubble to implode. Now that it's clear Trump isn't going anywhere, we're seeing stories about a long slog of a campaign or even a brokered convention. But there's a very real possibility that, far from those kinds of days of reckoning, Donald Trump could actually "run the table." Ironically, Trump not only could win -- he could win more decisively than any non-incumbent Republican contestant for the nomination since the dawn of the modern primary system.

Let's see how that might happen.

New Hampshire

First, let's look not at Iowa, but at New Hampshire. Trump has been leading in New Hampshire by double-digits since August. If those polls are to believed, Trump is poised not only to win, but to win decisively.

Conventional wisdom is that whichever establishment-friendly candidate places second -- at this point John Kasich is lined up behind Trump, but Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, and even Jeb Bush are all said to have a shot -- is going to be Trump's most-viable challenger for the nomination. But if Donald Trump dominates with 30 to 40 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, and they come in 15 to 20 points behind, how is that possible?

More logically, whoever wins Iowa is going to be Trump's biggest challenger, and if that candidate does poorly in New Hampshire then whoever comes in second there (assuming it's somebody else) will be a long-shot third for the nomination.

So let's look at Iowa.

[AllAmericanGirl44]

I’ve wondered that myself. It certainly leads to tunnel vision, which is evident in the posts. Of course, getting paid to smear is a well known entity as well.

[RoosterRedux]

Well, he better cherish his memories of winning, cause he isn’t gonna win this one.

[Uncle Miltie]

Five paragraphs in, the writer has not yet used the name “Cruz”.