--and that the big jump was in '09. We can add to that the fact that millions who are still 'employed' earn less and have been cut to part time.
Posted on 01/20/2016 3:13:53 AM PST by expat_panama
Employment: We've been hearing for months now about the snapback in payroll jobs that has helped push the unemployment rate down to 5%. A new report, however, suggests that this widely used number isn't believable.
The report, "America's Hidden Weakness," from Express Employment Professionals, suggests that a large number of workers who are capable of working but don't have a job have completely given up on looking...
What's most worrisome is that this report suggests there's a fundamental problem with the U.S. job market, one we've never faced before.
"The labor force participation rate has continued to shrink, even in a growing economy," the report said. "By almost any measure, that is a surprising trend."
The U.S., by the way, is the only major global economy to report a decline in labor participation...
The U.S. labor participation rate now stands at 62.6%., up only slightly from 62.4% in September, the lowest level in 38 years. And it's still way below the pre-recession high of 66.2% in 2007.
And remember: Each percentage point decline in labor participation is roughly 2.5 million missing workers. Today, some 94.1 million Americans over the age of 16 either don't work or aren't looking for work.
Reasons for this are...
"The American stimulus reduced average incentives to be employed...
This is a big reason why the 5% unemployment rate is a joke...
Not only did the Obama and Democrat "stimulus" not stimulate jobs, it seems to have created an entire new problem — the departure of able-bodied workers from the labor force...
Instead of an Obama-like stimulus, we hope the next president and Congress will cut taxes, lower regulations and shrink government — encouraging all of those people now on the sidelines to get back into the game.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
--and that the big jump was in '09. We can add to that the fact that millions who are still 'employed' earn less and have been cut to part time.
The underground economy may partially explain this phenomenon.
Interesting idea. People still want to engage in business but they hide it from the eyes of Caesar.
Top 'o the mornin' everyone, it's looking like yet another beautiful day for not doing anything in particular after yesterdays fading stocks gains in weak volume as metals continue their sideways plod (gold/silver again at $1,095.62/$14.14).
Futures traders are nervous w/ our heat map pointing to metals up a half % and stock indexes down the same amount; add to that the chance we might get some inflation stats to liven things up--
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index
8:30 AM CPI
8:30 AM Core CPI
8:30 AM Housing Starts
8:30 AM Building Permits
10:30 AM Crude Inventories
Meanwhile:
Doing Nothing May Be Best Bet In This Market - Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch
Will the Fed Ride to the Rescue of Investors? - Anthony Mirhaydari, TFT
There's a Bright Side to the Stock-Market Rout - John Kimelman, Barron's
Why Mutual Funds Are Losing Their Magic - Simon Constable, U.S. News
Getting Job Takes Longer than Ever - Sue Shellenbarger, Wall Street Journal
my thots too, but it’s like coming up w/ the number of illegal aliens —the one’s hiding really good simply can not be counted accurately.
If the economy were anywhere near what tie regime says in their fantasy stats, people would be flush with cash.
Go look at the little strip mall/shopping centers in your area. In good times, there is a waiting list for storefronts. All I am seeing is 33 to 50% empty storefronts, with more emptying every month.
Also, you can not have full employment (5% unemployment is considered the benchmark for full employment in economics) without high inflation and high interest rates due to “demand pull inflation”. Interest rates are near zwero, and inflation is very low.
When I see a statistic like this I sometimes wonder if it is deliberately misleading. Do these 94.1 million include people who don't work or aren't looking for work because they are retired?
Comparing workforce numbers now and 10 years ago, the working numbers are much smaller now even though the population has increased. This is far in excess to any “aging population” trend.
As far as “off the books” workers, they exist in greater numbers in boom times than bust because of the excess disposable income available in the economy.
One stat that is harder to manipulate is total state sales tax collection. Check your state numbers and see how they fare compared to 5 and 10 years ago.
The business I own sells nationwide to the welding industry. With that said, I can remember the great oil related depressions in 1982, 1986 and the general depression around 2009.
In every case the news was rosey and life was reported as wonderful for the working man.........until the real news finally could not be restrained from the public........and then the real news was finally let out.
However, in each case the poor working slob was already in serious financial trouble and the money changers were in their heyday short selling stocks. 401K, retirement funds, general investments all took a hit for the little guy but not the fat cats on Wall Street.
Moral of the story: When you read conservative news reports of just how bad the economy really is AND you read liberal news on just how wonderful and rosey the economy is, you had better go to cash quickly or buy tangible wealth.
I'd have to do the research on that, but it seems that an "aging population" trend would be particularly acute today compared to ten years ago. Baby Boomers -- those born between 1946 and 1964 -- were in the 42-60 age range in 2006. None of them were eligible for Medicare at the time, or to collect Social Security retirement benefits. Fast-forward ten years, and there is now a large cohort of those people in the 65-70 age range -- and the youngest of them (age 52) are eligible for retirement benefits in many public-sector positions.
One stat that is harder to manipulate is total state sales tax collection. Check your state numbers and see how they fare compared to 5 and 10 years ago.
That's a good point. In my own state I would expect to see a steep decline -- for demographic reasons more than anything else. We have an entire segment of the financial planning industry dedicated to helping wealthy taxpayers flee the state with minimal tax exposure, while they are replaced by immigrants who earn far less and don't buy many big-ticket items that drive up the sales tax collections.
Here is one set of numbers (gov’t stats, so take them FWIW)
http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aa051801a.htm
While median US age is up, it looks like 65 and older is flat to declining.
It still shows working age Americans’ numbers rising.
I have noticed there are many industries that have had an uptick in activity this last quarter but they are all specialized industries. Regular Joe Blow blue collar Industries seem to be the hardest hit and jobs are hard to come by unless you want to work in the fast food or sales industries. This 5% unemployment rate is complete BS...
Caesar's tax rate is a helluva lot higher rate these days as well as the number of items he taxes. I wonder how Jesus would answer the same question these days.
Trump, Cruz, et. al. need to start preparing the public for the fact that the day after the White Hut changes hands the REAL numbers are going to start coming out, and they are gonna be ugly.
I live in a little town in Silicon Valley where the economy is roaring. I noticed last week a sudden jump in vacant buildings in our downtown area. It took a long time after 2008 to get them all filled again, but there are suddenly 2 to 5 vacancies per block. I figured this was due to the inexorable rent increases by the landlords in these boom times. There’s also a big jump in “pop-up” stores that come and go quickly which just doesn’t seem right. Total vacancies now doesn’t seem far off from the trough in 2009-2010.
| CPI | -0.10% |
| Core CPI | 0.10% |
| Housing Starts | 1149K |
| Building Permits | 1232K |
What we got is that the Fed raised rates in Dec. during deflation along w/ falling housing starts & permits. Not smart.
The harsh reality is this “economy” is less than the FDR great depression. That had 3% growth versus the alleged and highly suspect 1.9-2% constantly adjusted phony govt numbers.
Plus today 103 million workers are OUT OF WORK EQUAL TO A THIRD OF THE WORKFORCE.
Buying T, WFC, DOW, GE, and AAPL if it hits AAPL.
Quit giving them welfare, WIC, EBT, whatever. They will work when they get hungry. IF they try crime, hopefully working taxpayers will send defective products back to their maker instead of jail/taxpayer expenses.
The real numbers have always been there and what I think you're talking about is what the press has been saying; that'll stay pro-dem/anti-rep.
My take is that we've got a lot of young freepers or old freeps w/ bad memories who don't recall when GW had a low unempl rate and the press never quit harping about the forgotten "discouraged worker" that the Rep bean-counters didn't care about.
If we get a regime change then I'm expecting the loopy left to go back to their old hymnal --and our pointing out how more folks than ever are returning to work won't matter a bit.
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