Posted on 01/15/2016 2:17:48 PM PST by Nachum
With less than half an hour until the close, we asked the Atlanta Fed - the most accurate predictor of GDP - which was scheduled to post an update of its Q4 GDP NowCast following today's ugly economic data, if it was was planning on releasing its latest Q4 GDP estimate before or after the close, something it usually does just before noon.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
It took from 3/2/09 until 1/1/13 for the DOW to return to the pre-recession level of 10/1/07 at about 13900. That was an agonizing 3 years and nine months. One of the longest recoveries in history.
From 1/1/07 until now the Dow has grown a “whopping” 2.75% and had two big “corrections” since the recovery began.
Let’s look at some other periods:
-40.4% The GREAT “recession” 10/1/07 to 3/2/09
-14.3% I think the chickens have come home to roost 3/2/15 to 1/15/16
-.8% Carter years 1/1/77 to 1/1/81
10.81% Reagan and Bush I years 1/1/81 to 1/1/93
15.75% Clinton years 1/1/93 to 1/1/01 after the “peace dividend” and the dot com boom. Even clintoon had enough sense not to screw up the economy
-2.19% Bush II years after 9/11 that took at least four years to recover from 1/1/01 to 1/1/09 9/11 was a much bigger event that many remember. The war that followed was a huge expense and the defense industrial complex made out like bandits.
9.82% Obongo years 1/1/09 to 1/1/16 when more than 4 trillion dollars have been printed and pumped into the markets with interest rates less than 2%. The economy has been pilloried in every way possible to create a massive atmosphere of FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, DOUBT and CONFUSION. Just like the obongo plan called for to fundamentally change America.
In the years since 1979 until 12/31/15 the DOW increased at a more traditional 8.5%
In periods starting 1/1/79 and ending 10, 20, 30 and 37 years later the rates of return were:
RoR For period from 1/1/79 and ending on date:
10.28% 1/1/89
12.93% 1/1/99
8.39% 1/1/09
8.37% 1/1/16
It looks to me like the nation has been running out of steam and is like an old car that can’t be fixed and obongo has run it without oil to finish it off.
20 years of war since the Bush years has not helped one bit either.
You can check your own periods of interest if you want to:
https://www.measuringworth.com/DJIA_SP_NASDAQ/#
I got out of college in the mid-70s and have invested for retirement ever since. I was probably one of only a few 22 year olds that asked for the retirement trust financial reports at Exxon when I started. In the last 40 years I have never seen such a long and miserable time in this country as the last 10 to 15 and surely the last 7 has been the worst of that time for outright general depression of the people.
In the last 40 years the oil industry has had busts and some massive layoffs in 1979 that few remember, 1982, 1986 through at least 1994 and it may not have ended because another came in 1998, 2001 and 2008 and again now in 2015. It has not been a steady life at all.
It could simply be demographics and the aging of the nation but I don’t think that is the real cause our economy and the mood of the nation is now so bad.
‘We’re all strangers. The internet did it.’
Technology is now making communication between people easier, including local people and even EBAY small businesses which can be more like the old days of personal service.
Funny how technology = solutions, but government and godless social engineering manage to pass the blame off on it anyway.
GDP growth just a wee bit over 1/2 a percent for a full quarter. And the 4th quarter is the all-important Christmas season. Higher employment of temps. More shopping. I heard once that over 70% of durable goods are sold in that quarter.
Good post.There is a possibility that if Trump is reelected we could see a huge resurgence of the economy. If he can’t turn it around I don’t know who could.
I have made many friends on the internet and it is a place of knowledge if that’s what you are looking for.
If you look at the posts on this thread a lot of them are basically “glass half full” or “glass half empty”.Mine is always glass half full and getting ready to fill to the top.
From my perspective?
The glass is .6% full.
‘There is a possibility that if Trump is reelected we could see a huge resurgence of the economy. If he can’t turn it around I don’t know who could.’
Now that’s optimism! Trump ‘re-elected’. Hahah!
Not sure he would want to be. After his first day, he will seriously doubt he would want a second term. I’m not sure that impression will ever fade.
Might groom his VP for four years and then delegate the White House to him.
I never set foot in a shopping center during Christmas. I bought Amazon Gift cards. Not physically able to shop and with 7 grands and 5 great grands that range in age 32- 2 yrs, no way I could have known individual wants or needs much less sizes. So I go to Kroger’s when I get my groceries and buy gift cards which after Thanksgiving they put out as 4 times the gas points. Get $3.00 over 2 months off a gallon of gas up to 35 gallons averaging a $22-30 per tank savings, and use my Discover and get another 1% back there, and pay it off each month so no interest fees.
Christmas is the biggest sales season of the year, if you don’t include Mother/Father’s Day. Shopping online was up double digits this year. Besides not being physically unable to shop, our big mall is high crime area and no guns allowed signs are up. And you can’t find a handicapped parking spot for nothing. Rude cashiers are another issue, and they are ill trained to boot as most temps in those positions are.
should have read “elected” not reelected,not with it too good this morning.
Hey, maybe it was prophetic and Trump gets ‘re-elected’ anyway.
I am a worse mess by far. Yesterday I mixed up ‘trump’ with cruz and when I reposted it, I forgot to fix the error!
Hope no one noticed.
I “talk” to a lot more people today than I did before the internet. But I don’t know any of them.
And people will say things on the internet they’d never say in person. Including right here. Especially right here. People call people names that they know they’d get punched if they did it to their faces. If that’s not the case then this world has really turned into a lot of smart asses.
I’ll wait for the name calling to start coming my way because of this post.
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