Why a 2016 Tea Party Primary Challenge Against Paul Ryan Will Fail

editions.lib.umn.edu ^ | 1/7/16 | Dr. Eric Ostermeier

[cotton1706]

Only one Wisconsin U.S. Representative has lost a primary since 1950 and just four others have won by less than double-digits

For the past few weeks there has been chatter around Wisconsin that Tea Party groups are preparing to run a primary challenger against Republican U.S. Representative Paul Ryan due in part to the nearly $2 trillion spending bill that passed last month under his leadership.

Although this is now a post-Eric Cantor political environment in which no powerful GOP leader can be labeled 'invincible' in a renomination bid, there is little reason to believe Speaker Ryan will suffer a similar fate - even setting aside his general popularity back home.

And just how effective have Wisconsin U.S. House members been in securing their renominations over the decades?

[cotton1706]

I'm getting the feeling that they're beginning to circle the wagons. That means something's going on!!

[4rcane]

Just because its rare it doesn’t mean it won’t happen if enough people want it. Look at Cantor

[Shady]

They are scared to death that it WILL happen and succeed.

[ConservativeMind]

We will be donating to his challenger.

[BobL]

I don’t know, but I suspect that Virginia didn’t have a habit of defeating HOUSE MAJORITY LEADERS in their Primaries either...until Cantor pushed things a bit too far.

[DIRTYSECRET]

U do it to do it.

[nathanbedford]

Of course the prospects of a driving speaker Ryan from office are daunting but the situation is not quite as hopeless as the author makes out. Conservatives who wish to send a message to the Republican establishment can stay home, they can vote for a third-party candidate, and if at the time of the election the polls demonstrate that the only other option is to vote for the Democrat, that too can be done.

It is just possible that the scales can be tipped and it would be worth it to drive Ryan from office to "encourage the others."

[grania]

I could see that a primary challenge against Ryan would likely fail. The HOR majority should be strong enough, especially with a Trump landslide, to sacrifice Ryan's HOR seat and vote for the Democrat.

It might be the best way to get rid of him as Speaker, and send a strong message at the same time.

JMHO

[Kudsman]

Be interesting to see who Mr. Trump would endorse should he get the nomination.

[snoringbear]

“Just because its rare it doesn’t mean it won’t happen if enough people want it. Look at Cantor”

Well, Ryan got off to a rough start. But, he was left holding the cards that John Boehner delt him. So, I’m willing to give him a chance. Personally, the POS I want to get rid of is Mitch McConnell. I want to puke whenever I see him on tv. He is a weak limp wristed closet liberal. I’m thinking the Dem leadership has some pics of this creep filed away somewhere.....

[Nickname]

If Ryan survives a primary challenge, Republicans are not obligated to vote for him in the general.

[Dr. Sivana]

I just moved from Wisconsin in late 2014. I lived about 10 miles north of Ryan’s district, and did my shopping, some socializing, etc. and am familiar with the area.

I don’t see a challenge actually winning. It is worth doing, but I don’t see the local populace taking out the pitchforks.

Scott Walker’s mild demeanor, backed by firm resolution works fine in Wisconsin. Unfortunately, a mild demeanor backed up by little can also do well. Look at Wisconsin’s two Senators, Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson. Yes, Johnson’s been a disappointment, but he is nowhere near a Feingold or a Baldwin, both of whom could seriously compete for “most liberal senator”. They didn’t campaign like crazies, and Tommy Thompson (against Baldwin) wasn’t able to change the framing. He hardly even tried. If you just see yard signs and print literature and TV ads, she’s just a nice lady. Janesville’s area has enough Madison -type folks to make it a slightly more conservative microcosm of the state as a whole. Folks there still get solace that we are not Illinois, and we are not Madison or Milwaukee.

The Republicans in Janesville may have beefs with Ryan, but they like the sure win, as well. I still listen to the WIBA feed of the excelllent Vicki McKenna show regularly, and I have not heard her get behind the move to primary Ryan. I suspect that’s because there is not an announced candidate that I know of yet. I don’t know anyone in the district who can be a strong candidate. I hope I am proven wrong.

[RS_Rider]

Cantorize the puke!

[Lurkinanloomin]

We Cantorized the weasel Eric Cantor because he betrayed his constitutents, Wisconsin can do the same.

[Nextrush]

They will rig the primary with six opponents like Boehner had for his last one....

Best to have a third party option for the general election to run if Ryan makes it through the primary.

[Mr. K]

Did this guy predict Trump would never succeed too?

[Mamzelle]

Ok. Maybe a primary challenge will fail against this treacherous coward. So, then let’s take him out of the general. We could support any and all opponents in his general. Even a Democrat in his district would be better than Ryan as Speaker

[Mamzelle]

Ok. Maybe a primary challenge will fail against this treacherous coward. So, then let’s take him out of the general. We could support any and all opponents in his general. Even a Democrat in his district would be better than Ryan as Speaker

[Redleg Duke]

This needs to happen in every state. It is time to drain the DC Swamp!

[Mamzelle]

Yes. This is how Lindsey Graham keeps getting elected senator. And in SC, Democrats like Harpootluan are in on the scam to keep a treacherous Repub in office.