Posted on 01/12/2016 3:25:07 AM PST by expat_panama
It's hard not to wonder: Is the stock market telling us something? True, the market's record in forecasting recessions is horrendous. Stocks often move according to whim or fad. But just because the market is wrong much of the time doesn't mean it's wrong all the time.
Could last week's turbulent trading be one of the times it's right?...
Behind this chain reaction is a huge transfer of economic power from advanced countries (mainly North America, Europe and Japan) to "emerging-market"...
The trouble is that their growth is slowing...
One is high debt levels...
The other problem is the legacy of the boom in commodities --oil, grains, metals...
The China bubble has popped. Price indexes have dropped...
Here's the picture that emerges: Over-borrowing has decelerated growth in many emerging-market countries. To offset that, China may be devaluing its currency -- the yuan -- to improve the competitiveness of its exports. In advanced nations, growth seems stuck between 1% and 2% a year.
With so much weakness, the world economy is vulnerable...
There are skeptics....
...Very little of the labor market is connected to the rest of the world through trade."
Exports constitute only 13% of U.S. GDP; the other 87% reflects domestic demand. In December, payroll employment expanded by a strong 292,000...
Large losses could cause a negative "wealth effect": When people feel poorer, they spend less (similarly, when they feel richer, they spend more)...
To the crucial question -- does the market foretell a recession? -- there's not yet a conclusive answer. How much China slows and how the rest of the world responds are open issues. American stocks may have overreacted. Whatever happens, this is not your father's business cycle.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
As much as I like to think I'm so important and the universe hinges on my every move I got to always remember that it it doesn't. Misery is a way of life for many --especially for too many of my fellow freepers and that's just the way it is no matter what I do.
The best explanation I've heard is how Rush points out that nobody makes money giving talks on the power of negative thinking becuase there isn't any power there and everyone knows how to think negative w/o being told how. It's easy --lazy brainless folks do it all the time. What we have to work at is being happy, positive, and optimistic because that's the attitude that gets so much more done and is so much more reality oriented. More fun too.
...I have 4 kids, none of who are employed, even into their thirties. Maybe it means I was a horrible parent.
Or maybe you're fine and the kids have their own lifestyles that they've chosen. Only God knows that one for sure and it leaves you and I just having to be content doing what we can.
Let's face it, some folks are generally happy and some are generally miserable and everyone (if they want) can spout some horrible story of toil torment and agony from their past. Sure, sometimes we suffer pain and loss and we deal w/ it. Complaining isn't dealing w/ it. Figuring out how to move on is. Now, for some folks being happy a lot comes easy --my wife is naturally happy and I'm the one who has to put in some effort and work at it. I do find it's worth the bother even tho I don't always succeed. She's patient.
For some reason I don't see how. I mean, I can understand how when some foreigner makes a tool he creates wealth, and when he sells it to his neighbor no new wealth is created until the neighbor uses to that tool make even more things.
The only wealth created by buying and selling is from the fact that after the transaction they can do what they want with the wealth they've already created.
Everyone else in that town from the doctor, the retailer, the policemen, to the swimming pool contractor are servicing that original wealth creation.
When the factory closes the entire town economics collapses. Because a service only economy is not self sustaining.
There are a lot of views on what true wealth is. Some say it's money, some say 'the sun in the mornin' & the moon at nite', others say the only true wealth is fearing God, and it goes on and on. Personally I've never understood the orthodoxy of the Church of the Holy Factory where the only true wealth is what comes out of a factory and nothing else matters.
Somehow it would make more sense to me that the Doctor's hours have more value than those of the factory janitor he heals and imho that's why the Doctor gets paid more. I'd have thought the HolyFactory zealots would at least honor the folks that built the factory in the first place but no, the orthodoxy is that those guys are evil.
Sounds goofy to me but hey, I can accept the fact that it's a way of life for millions.
This is typical of the immigrant mindset, a lot of good people - but with no real sense of what made America, great. No appreciation what so ever for the sacrifice to build up the nation. For them history starts when they deplane the 747 in LaGuardia. Even the second generation has issues, Niki Haley is a perfect example.
The Doctor provides service. An economy cannot survive putting band aids on each other. Try READING my post.
DEFINITION of 'Wealth'
A measure of the value of all of the assets of worth owned by a person, community, company or country. Wealth is the found by taking the total market value of all the physical and intangible assets of the entity and then subtracting all debts.
Essentially, wealth is the accumulation of resources. People are said to be wealthy when they are able to accumulate many valuable resources or goods. Wealth is expressed in a variety of ways. For individuals, net worth is the most common expression of wealth, while countries measure by gross domestic product (GDP) or GDP per capita.
There are other descriptions but we got to be together on the same one definition/description before we can swap ideas.
I see the market as completely out of touch with reality. World recovery rests on the china miracle that has now ended.
I don’t trust either the financial press or MSM on this. If we go with the shadow stats we are still in recession. The good news is growth has improved from minus 3 to minus 1 gdp.
Do you think the fed really believes we are in recovery or they know that is bs?
From a curious Canadian would you say unemployment really is 5% like the official numbers say?
From a curious Canadian would you say unemployment really is 5% like the official numbers say?
It can’t possibly be 5%; wages would move if that was true. The fact is that it is a meaningless figure as reported by the government (due to how it is calculated).
One of the creepiest omens in 2007/2008 was how quickly the classified ads shrank from several pages to less than half a page (with the same happening to online job postings); that situation hasn’t changed. There are always ads, but these are not “regular” jobs. The number of people working part-time has gone up because there is nothing available, and I believe the government considers them “employed” - despite the fact that they are bankrupt and receiving food stamps.
Most Canadians believe what your government is selling; that Obama has managed to Create a recovering economy. What I understand from Peter Schiff is that it is all illusion.
Haven’t Canadians seen less Americans up there spending money? I read the impact was felt in the Caribbean tourist sites; how about up there?
We’re still in the Obama depression. The stock market is reflecting that Obama is still in office for another year and doesn’t care how bad he hurts us.
Absolutely, because the official definition of the unemployment rate is % employed in the workforce, and the official workforce is at its lowest level in 40 years. Meanwhile the number of people not working (civilian non-institutional population - employment) has jumped ten million during the recession and has increased another seven million since. All this is besides the fact that U.S. median incomes have fallen because millions of these new jobs are part time and the rest are too competitive to demand wage growth.
Just the same, that official unemployment rate is in fact like you said 5%.
They know it’s BS. But they painted themselves into a corner by taking the interest rate down to the ZIRP. After that, there was nowhere to go but up, which would crush the economy.
That’s why they talked about it for over a year and then, when they finally did “raise the rates,” it was nothing.
If they really believed the recession were over, they’d take the rates back up to 3% over the course of a 12-24 months.
They wouldn’t let the economy crash with the “first black president,” and they didn’t want it to crash with a president that everyone compares to Carter, who was president the last time the economy tanked.
So they’ve been propping it up.
I don’t doubt they’ll let Trump win and then let the economy tank and the dollar crash. That way, they can say, “See! See! We told ya so! We socialists give you a stable economy. But you went and voted for an old white capitalist businessman and look what he did. Now, if you want this mess fixed, vote us back into office. But we have to warn you, we’ll have to switch to a global currency and the IMF/BIS will have a strong voice in our economy.”
Somehow they don’t equate twisting the truth with lying. The biggest victim in all this will be trust.
Yes but that has been mitigated lately by the purchasing power of the dollar up here.
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